ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I don't think a2mc or Goldman Sachs have yet advised an exact date, perhaps they are awaiting a 'good to go' signal from AMP. It should appear here when they are all ready to go.

http://www.asx.com.au/prices/upcoming.htm

It is not up to them. They are awaiting approval from the ASX first. Once approved, the market will be informed and trading will likely commence a few days later. The ticker code for the ASX is A2M. Expect an update within the next week.

[tomblu]

I notice the ASX has a list for A2M, just no data yet.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/company.do#!/A2M

[Harrie]

The point I was making Harrie was that there can be things other than the specific six items on your list that could give the SP a boost. Such as improved sales/profits in Australia. Or a favourable recommendation by Aussie brokers/analysts, which could be based on prospects rather than actual achievements.

I agree that "good news" is important, but not that it has to involve the six specific items on your list. I note you have now softened that assertion a bit.

Not looking for a big dispute here, but I think that once the dual listing takes place, the SP will be dictated largely in the Australian market, and will be determined not so much by precise statistical measures of current company performance as by broader consumer and investor perceptions of the company's future. And investors won't wait a year or two to see whether the six targets on your list are achieved. They'll respond to shorter term news and commentary.

[/QUOTE]

We are probably talking about the same thing here NT.
A2mc probably have more prospects than you can point a finger at. The market has discounted that already into the price. Its the price that after weighing up the risk of the prospects being fulfilled, or not, that the market is prepared to pay. The longer the prospects take to come to fruition the longer the SP will drift. The trigger to make the SP go higher is some of the criteria I outlined above coming to fruition, because as the probability of success becomes more apparent it starts to whittle away the probability of performance objectives not being met. Improving perceptions = less risk = improving SP.

Talking about perceptions, why would Chinese bureaucrats at the border not want to ban imports of formula into China from NZ even if there was only an infinitesimal chance of 1080 mixed in? why risk your job. What do they know about NZ food safety mechanisms anyhow? If in doubt stay out? I think this one could really blow up. International trust in NZ food safety is diminishing big time. One of the big growing markets for a2mc is exporting baby formula to China. If this goes tits up as a result of the 1080 scare its one of the drivers of growth which is under threat = more uncertainty = declining SP. I hope I am wrong!

[bull....]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/6725...tortion-threat

sales slumping so they say

[MAC]

Yawn, … no impact to ATM much at all really,

HY15 China segment revenues: $1.0M
HY15 Total ATM revenues: $74.8

Not all China segment revenues are NZ produced and exported infant formula, it also includes Australian fresh milk exports and Australian UHT exports to China.

Assuming $750k revenues is for NZ infant formula export, then any potential exposure from a prospective 1080 nutbar represents only around 1% of all company revenues.

Practically very little risk of disruption to ATM’s overall business.

[NT001]

One of the big growing markets for a2mc is exporting baby formula to China. If this goes tits up as a result of the 1080 scare its one of the drivers of growth which is under threat = more uncertainty = declining SP.

On that one, Harrie, I think we should take some reassurance from the way a2MC is now turning itself into a multi-product international company rather than just a NZ one or just an infant formula one. It's exporting a lot of product into China now from Australia, and that will expand. Even the company that processes infant formula for it here (Synlait) is very much a Chinese company now. It's contemplating UHT sales into the European continent from its UK subsidiary. It could even export out of the US.

The point about A2 Milk is that it's not specifically a NZ thing. As its UK CEO Scott Wotherspoon has said, the plan is to move on into other countries once it is well established in the UK, China and the US. While a2MC could get caught up tangentially in issues like the current 1080 scare, and its SP will inevitably fluctuate, it should be regarded as a longterm investment with bigger horizons.

[blobbles]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/6725...tortion-threat

sales slumping so they say

Its interesting that you would put this on this thread rather than say the FSF thread bull...., any motivation why? ATM won't have a lot of exposure to this, but fonterror...

[Harrie]

Anyone know what % of a2 milk powder is manufactured in NZ and what % manufactured in Australia?
Mac believes that $750k worth in NZ, therefore on the basis of $1m revenue from this market, we have to assume $250k from Australia? seems a lot smaller than I had assumed.
Having said that I would have expected this market to grow exponentially so its the perception of growth opportunities being compromised by the 1080 scare which may depress the price somewhat even though the milk powder market is currently not a great contributor to total revenue.

[MAC]

Harrie, I think you may find that the forward prospects and size of the Australian fresh milk export to China is a significant market, very probably much greater than that of infant formula potential. Characteristically there are lot’s more adult consumers than infants at the end of the day.

It’s likely even IMO that the fresh milk and UHT market exports alone to China may well make the China segment profitable at FY15. If ATM pick up some growth from infant formula exports also, well great, some icing on the cake.

Fresh milk “could be pushing toward three million litres for 2015, according to its Asian general manager, Phil Wohlsen” and “expects demand to at least double each year.”

http://adf.farmonline.com.au/news/ma...2/2713426.aspx

[iceman]

That is my concern with it too Harrie. Not the effect this threat/scare may have on this year but whether it will have ongoing negative effect on what I have been expecting to be one of the pillars of growth for ATM in the very near future.

Having said that I would have expected this market to grow exponentially so its the perception of growth opportunities being compromised by the 1080 scare which may depress the price somewhat even though the milk powder market is currently not a great contributor to total revenue.