ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[gv1]

Sparky, have you bought in these again ?

[000831]

hi guys, the online shop starts running today at http://www.nongken.org/a2/index.html, it can pre-order now.

a TV roadshow will be on mid of May and exhibitions in different cities between May and July. The sale starts from Bei Jing, Shang Hai, Guang Zhou, Tian Jing, Chong Qing, all large cities with population over 10 millions.

[gv1]

heh - no. Good luck to holders. Doing very nicely isn't it?

Thanks Sparky.
I sold mine when it went down to 55. Few days later the SP spiked.
Thinking if its good idea to get in again.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Thanks Sparky.
I sold mine when it went down to 55. Few days later the SP spiked.
Thinking if its good idea to get in again.

Hard to tell whether now is a good time to get in. Risk would certainly be increased. It has broken the resistance of 68 and we are now in blue sky, so it really could go anywhere. It looks like buyers have been outnumbering the short term traders/profit takers, so at a guess I would be expecting it to maybe level out at 75ish. But who knows, time will tell.

If it gets to 80 I will probably sell my entire holding. This would be in no way based on the company (infant powder should be huge!!!) but based on the fact that markets are getting out of control. Would just feel a bit more comfortable with a larger cash position for when the sh*t hits the fan.

[Lawt]

If it gets to 80 I will probably sell my entire holding. This would be in no way based on the company (infant powder should be huge!!!) but based on the fact that markets are getting out of control. Would just feel a bit more comfortable with a larger cash position for when the sh*t hits the fan.

What if the poo poo doesn't hit the fan for another 5yrs?
Given we don't know this (well I don't at least) why bail, you may sit on cash at a few measley % all that time.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

What if the poo poo doesn't hit the fan for another 5yrs?
Given we don't know this (well I don't at least) why bail, you may sit on cash at a few measley % all that time.

Research bull/bear cycles.

[gv1]

Hard to tell whether now is a good time to get in. Risk would certainly be increased. It has broken the resistance of 68 and we are now in blue sky, so it really could go anywhere. It looks like buyers have been outnumbering the short term traders/profit takers, so at a guess I would be expecting it to maybe level out at 75ish. But who knows, time will tell.

If it gets to 80 I will probably sell my entire holding. This would be in no way based on the company (infant powder should be huge!!!) but based on the fact that markets are getting out of control. Would just feel a bit more comfortable with a larger cash position for when the sh*t hits the fan.

Thanks Johnnythehorse.

[GRIFFIN]

So Sparky does that mean that summerset will not be affected by a big correction.

[Lawt]

I admire your optimism Lawt, but this bull market really started in 2009/2010 when shares were once-in-a-generation cheap. I didn't arrive until late 2010, when shares were once-in-a-decade cheap.

If bull markets usually run 3-5 year cycles, then we are coming to the end of a cycle in 2013/2014. Of course, I might be wrong and there may be 5 years of bull markets to come.

Either way, I am not hugely troubled by this because I am holding more cash now and I have bought cheaply enough that losing a quarter of my portfolio value for six months means I'm still sitting on profits.

personally, I'd worry that A2s share price would get hammered in a big correction, irrespective of the smart people doing good things at the business. Hence why I sold out for roughly 60c and bought Summerset, which has also done well.

I'm actually not quite that optimistic, it was just a figure used for example - a bad choice as an example I guess.
I do concur on the liklihood of the likes of A2 (and what I term speculative stocks) being hammered in a big correction - hence these types of stocks only make up 24% of my portfolio - was less a few weeks back too.
Kind of interesting, within the last few posts we have had "the Sh*t hits the fan", a "bear market" and a "big correction" being discussed. Are all of these things the same thing? I don't see it that way, the way I see it is
The Sh*t hits the fan = big crash, 1987, -20% in a day or 3
Bear market = This is how I see this one
Correction = Well that's covered in that link too.
Given the above, I don't see either of the first 2 being likely in the next 3 years, but I'd be surprised if we didn't see the last one some time soon.
But I don't see a correction as an issue for investors. Traders, speculators - they very well may.

The reason why I say I don't see either of the first 2 scenarios for a ways off is because there is a recovery under way and it is being driven from the ground up.
For example, If the sharemarket were to crash tomorrow, Christchurch will still be rebuilt.
In past times (87 for example) the sharemarket crash dragged construction down.
This can't happen this time.
Fletchers are going to turn in a good result. Steel and Tube are very likely to turn in a good result. Their employees and sub contractors are still going to be getting paid and fairly well.
A huge portion ofthe country will be recession proof for several years to come.
America is teetering on the edge of an economic recovery and who knows within 3yrs Europe may even show signs of recovery too.

[000831]

Japanese and USA are still printing hot money into global financial system. RBNZ would not lift up OCR till end of this year. still have few months safely to play if there is negative correlation between interest rate and the price of index.

The big correction would happen if USA suddenly tighten its monetary policy, and other countires fellow it. But now party is not over yet.

Mutual funds receive kiwisavers saving weekly or fornightly and keep buying shares, or keep a bit cash position. Look at RYM，SUM， DIL，DGL， EBOS, all in good trends. NZX 50 also in good position.

Enjoy the profit now, thanks for the bloody liquidity. Worry too much !