ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Harrie]

I think Freedom are planning on getting into infant formula themselves - they'd be silly to be missing out on all this cash. Still, they would have to find a point of difference - maybe organic like Bellamy's?

Firstly, Not while they are under a supply contract with a2mc.They supply a very large majority of a2 milk to a2mc in Australia via lepperton (Perich) and Moxey farms.

Secondly, Lepperton and Moxey farms operating as AFMH don't have organic registered farms.

Thirdly, long time to set up a brand and even if they do, what label are they going to sell under? They cant use anything that has any reference to a2 in their brand.
It took A2mc many years to establish their brand, do FF want to go down that track?

fourthly, a2mc will have other suppliers so if at the end of the supply contract it gets cancelled then Lepperton and Moxey have a demand problem before they can establish a recognisable brand to take up the surplus supply, because a2mc will move to other suppliers, albeit possibly having a short term supply problem. FF would have a demand problem as well as sacrificing the premium they currently get from a2mc, while they attempt to establish a brand.

Fiftly, I can imagine that they could easily run into legal issues with a2mc, because it would be hard to ride on a2's success without using that name, or any of the IP around it.

[Nasi Goreng]

Freedom must be delighted with the share price action over the last year. It's been nothing short of a fairy tale. Not a holder of A2M but the shackles have been lifted for other shareholders now Freedom have gone.

[see weed]

And what was the answer ? I suspect NO which would be in line with announcements. Suppose we have to accept our $500 odd worth ???

Yeah, total waste of time, over subscribed. BUT a very positive meeting on the whole, though my mind kept wandering over to the big muffins and cream scones on the other table. What I can barely remember is something to do with not needing any more money than they already have,from the $40 million raisings from the big boys. But they might give the small shareholders a bit more allocation if they ever do it again, but I might be wrong.

[stef]

Has anyone worked out FY16 SP based on the revised earning?

[winner69]

Has anyone worked out FY16 SP based on the revised earning?

It's still all about believing the story mate

Some would say it should only be 30 cents - eps say 2 cents/share at PE of 15 is 30 cents value.

I'm sure a MAC style DCF would come up with at least $1.75

What you reckon it will be stef?

[sb9]

Has anyone worked out FY16 SP based on the revised earning?

From the update y'day, they revised their EBITDA to NZ $22mln. You can work out NPAT from that figure roughly and on outstanding shares of 711 ml from memory, it'll be easy to work out EPS and apply relevant PE multiple.
My rough estimate is between $1.40-$1.70, however based on what happened to Bellamy's sp in past 12 months and further demand growth for A2 infant formula especially out of China, that price might be totally irrelevant. The Aussies seem to be quite hungry on this stock right now.
There is a good discussion on hotcopper.com.au re this stock which gives you plenty of information.

On another note have sent off my SPP form last night for what its worth, may get a very paltry allocation but never mind better than nothing.

[winner69]

From the update y'day, they revised their EBITDA to NZ $22mln. You can work out NPAT from that figure roughly and on outstanding shares of 711 ml from memory, it'll be easy to work out EPS and apply relevant PE multiple.
My rough estimate is between $1.40-$1.70, however based on what happened to Bellamy's sp in past 12 months and further demand growth for A2 infant formula especially out of China, that price might be totally irrelevant. The Aussies seem to be quite hungry on this stock right now.
There is a good discussion on hotcopper.com.au re this stock which gives you plenty of information.

On another note have sent off my SPP form last night for what its worth, may get a very paltry allocation but never mind better than nothing.

Ok - bit mean last post with 30 cents

Lets use a whopping 30 PE -that gives 60 cents

See guys its all about believing the story - current financials mean squat all really

It's worth what the next punter wants to pay, no more and no less

[stef]

Ok - bit mean last post with 30 cents

Lets use a whopping 30 PE -that gives 60 cents

See guys its all about believing the story - current financials mean squat all really

It's worth what the next punter wants to pay, no more and no less

Yes the SP has spent along time around 60c previously, but if earning growth & market conditions remain positive I am picking around 150c sometime next year

[RGR367]

Hopefully this answer what will FF do with the cash they have after selling their ATM shares http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU151...er-a2-milk.htm

[theace]

On another note have sent off my SPP form last night for what its worth, may get a very paltry allocation but never mind better than nothing.

Applied online yesterday, and was expecting the Direct Debit to clip the amount from the bank account last night. It's $ still sitting in the bank account. Anyone know when it'll be withdrawn?