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  1. #6261
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Bullish post, I like it and hope you're right mate. It will be interesting to see where broker valuations are at once they have updated them.
    Yes its quite bullish and knowing myself I'm usually not that bullish in predictions, more conservative. However, I'm making an exception in this case. This is purely based on the fact that more production being available, stock is derisked of most threats (regulatory), UK operations being profitable (operating level) for first time in years and more opportunities in SEA market.

    As an aside, the stage 4 (3+ years) seem to be picking up quite well in demand and apparently this does not need CFDA approval (source:hotcopper). And also reading on there, seems Blackmores have discounted their IF by upto 80% at sale price of AU$4.99 per tin, shocking, isn't it....on the other hand these guys can't keep enough on the shelves for customers, figure that.

    Hence my reasoning for bullish post, I could be wrong but at least that's my workings anyway, happy to be challenged and corrected

  2. #6262
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    Quote Originally Posted by 777 View Post
    $6 by November. The way they are going this morning it will be $6 by 2pm today. Sure is a lot of interest.
    Yeah, looks like Aussies are picking this to be $5 soon and based on that we should be around $5.50 based on current exchange rate of .914...thx for weakening NZD against AUD, better for us kiwi holders

  3. #6263
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    Nice start to the day.
    Aust Brokers Bell Potter have upgraded their 12 month buy rating to $A5.50
    Attachment 9101

  4. #6264
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    Nice start to the day.
    Aust Brokers Bell Potter have upgraded their 12 month buy rating to $A5.50
    Attachment 9101
    Thanks for sharing.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  5. #6265
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    Well on its way to $7+... impressive

  6. #6266
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Question Slowly-slowly

    A $40M buy-back is only 1% of the current shares kicking around.
    But if they did that year after year after year that would be something.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger

    Who stole my carriage returns?
    Last edited by Snow Leopard; 25-08-2017 at 12:16 PM.
    om mani peme hum

  7. #6267
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    Happy that I topped up around the $4.90 mark recently.

  8. #6268
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
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    Margins are everything.


    A2 MILK COMPANY - NZ FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17A FY17F RELATIVE PERFORMANCE ( +/- ) TO FORECAST
    OPERATING REVENUES GENERATED - NZDm 94.5 110.8 155.1 352.8 549.2 546.0 0.6%
    Cost of goods sold as a proportion of product trading revenues 64.30% 64.00% 64.80% 57.20% 52.03% 54.00% 2.00%
    Cost of promotional marketing as a proportion of trading revenues 4.80% 8.90% 9.40% 10.30% 7.65% 9.00% 1.35%
    Cost of logistics/shipping & freight as a proportion of trading revenues 7.90% 7.20% 6.00% 4.40% 3.67% 4.00% 0.33%
    Cost of corporate + other as a percentage of trading revenues 10.70% 15.00% 15.30% 11.40% 11.47% 11.00% -0.47%
    OPERATING EXPENSES INCURRED - NZDm 84.8 106.6 151.0 297.3 410.9 425.9 3.7%
    OERATING EBITDA GENERATED - NZDm 9.7 4.2 4.1 55.5 138.3 120.1 15.13%
    Operating EBITDA to revenue 10.26% 3.81% 2.64% 15.73% 25.18% 22.00% 3.18%
    ADJUSTED NPAT - NZDm 4.0 0.7 -1.1 31.4 90.6 81.9 10.62%
    Adjusted NPAT to operating revenue 4.20% 0.60% 0.00% 8.90% 16.50% 15.00% 1.50%
    Underlying EPS - - - 4.32cps 12.29cps 11.27cps



    ATM.NZX FY17A FY18F FY19F FY20F
    ADJUSTED EARNINGS PER SHARE - CPS 12.29 18.00 23.00 26.50
    SP AT FOREWARD EARNINGS OF 30x $5.40 $6.90 $7.95 $9.00
    Last edited by hardt; 25-08-2017 at 04:27 PM.

  9. #6269
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    Thanks for sharing Hardt.

    Here's my summary of ATM FY18 SP guesstimates to date;
    BP Brokers - $A5.85
    Hardt - $NZ 6.90
    Me - $NZ 7.50
    sb9 - $NZ 8.25 to $10

    Going to be interesting to see where this one goes.

  10. #6270
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COM...022/consensus/
    As expected, big broker upgrades. 2018 forward PE of 28 doesn't look too bad to me in terms of fundamental value considering their stellar track record of growth and upgrades to production this coming year.
    Last edited by Beagle; 27-08-2017 at 08:31 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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