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  1. #6271
    Outside thinking.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    http://www.4-traders.com/A2-MILK-COM...022/consensus/
    As expected, big broker upgrades. 2018 forward PE of 28 doesn't look too bad to me in terms of fundamental value considering their stellar track record of growth and upgrades to production this coming year.
    Thanks for posting..... FY18 is going to be an exciting for ATM.

    · New Stage 4 IF just launched; benefits yet to come. (Stage 4 could provide insurance as it apparently allows A2 to maintain supply of IF to China - if CFDA is not issued.)
    · Production of IF to double from October 2017. Higher margins! Fresh milk used to outsell IF. Now it is the other way around.
    · New A2 brand and market extensions; eg fresh A2 milk launched in Singapore etc.
    · CFDA - Key China Certification pending; high probability of success…but SP will drop if not granted.
    · Lion Court Case; Likely to be won or settled in ATM’s Favour. Likely that the cost of litigation will be recovered plus possible compensation boost. Again possible downside if A2 fails.
    · Health and IP Benefits; Growing research and acceptance world wide. New Research in NZ and Aus looks impressive. Increased spending on Patent protection. Busy digging that moat.
    · Special Dividend; TBA, a move to dividends in FY18.
    · Share buy-back; increases SP and balance sheet strength
    · Investment in Synlait; has already seen impressive appreciation. More to come.
    · Double digit sales growth potential; USA, UK, Europe, Singapore with Triple digit potential in China

  2. #6272
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Jul 2010
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    Auckland
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    Good synopsis Left field. Excellent summary of opportunities and risks. I am inclined towards thinking the Bell Potter sales and earnings projections look reasonably conservative and the risk on balance is to the upside an d we know they see fair value at $A5.50 approx. $6 Kiwi.
    Last edited by Beagle; 28-08-2017 at 07:34 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #6273
    Guru
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    Apr 2003
    Location
    Wellington, New Zealand
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    4,876

  4. #6274
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2015
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    38

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    Wow look at the jump.. sellers drying out

  5. #6275
    Investor
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    Jul 2014
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    5,643

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    https://keithwoodford.wordpress.com/...ain/#more-1734

    Great article by Prof Woodford...few snippets which echo my valuation the other day as follows:
    "
    - For the current 2017/18 year, Synlait has greatly increased processing capability for consumer-ready infant formula. Also, regulatory concerns relating to trade with China are now much less of an issue compared to the last 18 months.

    - So, the prospects are that ATM could double its sales (my estimate), with market demand and logistics management being the key determining issues.

    - One country that can make quick progress towards A2 milk is the USA. In that country, overall production is now dominated by large scale producers. These bigger farmers in the American barn-farming environment are also able to use breeding strategies, including sex-selected semen, that do not work so well in the New Zealand environment.

    - Accordingly, it will be in the USA that ATM has potential to access the large volumes of milk that they will require, particularly for infant formula, if they are to achieve a global presence.
    "

    Onwards and upwards...should stop looking at market trading data for ATM or else there's always a temptation to sell...

  6. #6276
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Yeap...Bell Potters analyst with a ~ $700m sales forecast for FY18 looks pretty conservative to me. Could do their FY20 estimate of ~ $850m of sales.
    Last edited by Beagle; 28-08-2017 at 09:59 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #6277
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
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    111

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    I look at my holding and think I should sell to lock in my profits but it keeps climbing. What to do? It could still be cheap now looking back in 1 months time.

  8. #6278
    Senior Member
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    Aug 2017
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    620

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    Quote Originally Posted by flyer View Post
    I look at my holding and think I should sell to lock in my profits but it keeps climbing. What to do? It could still be cheap now looking back in 1 months time.
    you could sell enough to cover your cost and then sit back for the free ride

  9. #6279
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
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    620

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    SP now down to $5.60 from close to $6.00 anyone know whats going on?

  10. #6280
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2016
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    923

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    Probably just profit takers selling down

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