ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[suse]

hmm yet again wondering if I should invest and dithering and watching the sp rise. I am glad I finally made the leap 3 weeks back with a very small shareholding. Reading the investor presentation I am reminded about the possible special dividend and buy back. If the shareprice is at what they consider it should be though, does that mean there wouldnt be a buy back. Is that good or bad? I wonder what sort of special dividend they are thinking about..

[Leftfield]

hmm yet again wondering if I should invest and dithering and watching the sp rise. I am glad I finally made the leap 3 weeks back with a very small shareholding. Reading the investor presentation I am reminded about the possible special dividend and buy back. If the shareprice is at what they consider it should be though, does that mean there wouldnt be a buy back. Is that good or bad? I wonder what sort of special dividend they are thinking about..

Welcome aboard the ATM ride Suse. I hope your holding is in profit, if so perhaps a good time to keep nibbling when/if the share market gets election jitters.

Re yr Q's - I suspect all will be revealed when ATM do their next market update (LY this was late Nov and Dec)

One thing you'll find about ATM is that the management are sound and there are few reasons not to trust them (unlike NTL's surprise cash raise, for example.) Perhaps if the SP rises to a level where ATM don't see any point in purchasing, then more is available to be distributed to SH via special dividend!! Time will tell.

Great to see ATM above $6.00 today and already well on the way to the FY18 predictions we made a month or so ago ie
BP Brokers - $A5.85 (now looking v conservative!!)
Hardt - $NZ 6.90
Me - $NZ 7.50
sb9 - $NZ 8.25 to $10

[Ted2]

Welcome aboard the ATM ride Suse. I hope your holding is in profit, if so perhaps a good time to keep nibbling when/if the share market gets election jitters.

Re yr Q's - I suspect all will be revealed when ATM do their next market update (LY this was late Nov and Dec)

One thing you'll find about ATM is that the management are sound and there are few reasons not to trust them (unlike NTL's surprise cash raise, for example.) Perhaps if the SP rises to a level where ATM don't see any point in purchasing, then more is available to be distributed to SH via special dividend!! Time will tell.

Great to see ATM above $6.00 today and already well on the way to the FY18 predictions we made a month or so ago ie
BP Brokers - $A5.85 (now looking v conservative!!)
Hardt - $NZ 6.90
Me - $NZ 7.50
sb9 - $NZ 8.25 to $10

I like sb9's prediction myself!!!

[Clints]

Welcome aboard the ATM ride Suse. I hope your holding is in profit, if so perhaps a good time to keep nibbling when/if the share market gets election jitters.

Re yr Q's - I suspect all will be revealed when ATM do their next market update (LY this was late Nov and Dec)

One thing you'll find about ATM is that the management are sound and there are few reasons not to trust them (unlike NTL's surprise cash raise, for example.) Perhaps if the SP rises to a level where ATM don't see any point in purchasing, then more is available to be distributed to SH via special dividend!! Time will tell.

Great to see ATM above $6.00 today and already well on the way to the FY18 predictions we made a month or so ago ie
BP Brokers - $A5.85 (now looking v conservative!!)
Hardt - $NZ 6.90
Me - $NZ 7.50
sb9 - $NZ 8.25 to $10

Hey Left field - I am new to ATM (purchased about 3 weeks ago) and you seem quite knowledgeable in this holding. My question is why do these shares seem to go up during the day then seem to dip sharply towards the end of the day?

Thanks

[Yoda]

So why would the company do a buy back at an all time high, ? Does that make sense? Is that designed to keep the price up for any reason ,like management options coming on line or something ? Just asking ...... Isnt it done when the price is low?

[suse]

Welcome aboard the ATM ride Suse. I hope your holding is in profit, if so perhaps a good time to keep nibbling when/if the share market gets election jitters.

Re yr Q's - I suspect all will be revealed when ATM do their next market update (LY this was late Nov and Dec)

One thing you'll find about ATM is that the management are sound and there are few reasons not to trust them (unlike NTL's surprise cash raise, for example.) Perhaps if the SP rises to a level where ATM don't see any point in purchasing, then more is available to be distributed to SH via special dividend!! Time will tell.

Great to see ATM above $6.00 today and already well on the way to the FY18 predictions we made a month or so ago ie
BP Brokers - $A5.85 (now looking v conservative!!)
Hardt - $NZ 6.90
Me - $NZ 7.50
sb9 - $NZ 8.25 to $10

Thanks LF for those thoughts and lets hope you and sb9 are totally on the money!
And yes, thank goodness for being in profit with ATM as it is taking the sting out of NTL losses at the moment. I definitely got caught up in the hype! - makes me feel like a fool and their money are easily parted, but I'm prepared to hang in there for now and hope for the best.

[Clints]

Thanks LF for those thoughts and lets hope you and sb9 are totally on the money!
And yes, thank goodness for being in profit with ATM as it is taking the sting out of NTL losses at the moment. I definitely got caught up in the hype! - makes me feel like a fool and their money are easily parted, but I'm prepared to hang in there for now and hope for the best.

Hi Suse - NTL - I too have been on this ride. My gut is that these will go up again after the Election / SPP so don't despair on this.

[Hoop]

Took profits along the way to keep this one weighted under 50% of my portfolio.

Hindsight's a nightmare...

Ah same with me, and yet I continue to do so.
Could be the time to sit back and enjoy the ride and see it become a 10x bagger all over again

Harry Markowitz has a lot to answer for..eh ..

To be fair to Harry the key word in the Portfolio Theory is "allocate"..which suggests at commencement (or accumulate/sell during.. thus altering the portfolio metrics)...It's all the do with the level of risk you as an investor is happy to put up with and then mathematically find the maximised capital gain to that level of risk you assigned yourself to (usually the higher the level risk requires a higher level of return (maximised = most efficient way).. It says nothing about derisking during a huge capital gain event unless there's a sudden risk increase..It would make no sense would it as it would be contrary the Theory's principle of maximising capital gain..also derisking (selling) your lowest risk asset (best performer of making a capital gain) is contrary to the principle as it could dramatically lessen the portfolio maximising power of making a capital gain and also push the risk to the outside of your assigned risk perimeter resulting in a much less efficient portfolio..

I amazes me the investors (including myself sometimes) realising their profits (profit-taking) on their best performing stock and keep their dogs (badly performing stock) in the hope that some day they may get their money back. That is the exact opposite to the Principle..(Very inefficient portfolio = high outside assigned risk perimeter with minimising capital gain)

It is a complicated mathematical method that has to be recalculated very often as they are all variables... but there are simplistic methods for us plebs..There's a rule of thumb "buy/accumulate in up trending stock" ..and... "sell/don't buy downtrending stock" (high risk to capital gain).
Holding onto a downtrending stock can alter the risk/maximum capital gain metrics within one's Portfolio to the point that the resulting higher percentage risk becomes outside your established risk perimeter thereby creating a sell of the offending culprit to lower the risk back into the established perimeter thereby raising back up the efficiency of the portfolio (risk/maximised capital gain)..

Conclusion:..you should not have sold...

[Leftfield]

Hey Left field - I am new to ATM (purchased about 3 weeks ago) and you seem quite knowledgeable in this holding. My question is why do these shares seem to go up during the day then seem to dip sharply towards the end of the day?

Thanks

Hi Clints, I'm more of a long term trader, than a 'day trader' so I don't watch the hourly changes in SP. However; I note that morning trading in the NZX can change SP's in the afternoon with dual listed stocks, as the ASX opens at noon our time. The late aft trends you note might be to ASX short sellers or day traders having to exit quickly to avoid losses on a SP that is moving up against their expectations. If your late afternoon dip theory is right, then perhaps this is a good time to time your NZX purchases. My general rule in buying shares is simply to try and sneak a price lower than the VWAP of the day....then sit back and let the long term trend do its magic. Good luck out there!

[sb9]

I like sb9's prediction myself!!!

Great to see ATM above $6.00 today and already well on the way to the FY18 predictions we made a month or so ago ie
BP Brokers - $A5.85 (now looking v conservative!!)
Hardt - $NZ 6.90
Me - $NZ 7.50
sb9 - $NZ 8.25 to $10

I'll be looking forward to Synlait's results next week on 19th for further clues about how this going to move over next couple months until ASM time in Nov when there'll be a formal trading update from the company.