ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[couta1]

Been super busy at work but in the very occasional quiet moment I have pondered the same thing...

Just keep pondering mate, no safety net and no where to hide if something/anything goes wrong. Although it's a good product, it's not an essential one like power.

[Yoda]

Just keep pondering mate, no safety net and no where to hide if something/anything goes wrong. Although it's a good product, it's not an essential one like power.

Really ? VCT. MCY. for example? 20-30 % + som div. in 5 years .-- a bit to slow for me
i think the safety net is to sell if it goes below the 50 or 100 MA, otherwise go with it ..... I think its a calculated risk one might consider.

[couta1]

Really ? VCT. MCY. for example? 20-30 % + som div. in 5 years .-- a bit to slow for me
i think the safety net is to sell if it goexs below the 50 or 100 MA, otherwise go with it ..... I think its a calculated risk one might consider.

Because of my leaning toward large holdings I follow the Buffett rule and only buy shares that I would be happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years, this stock doesn't fit that bill for me at it's current SP. PS-Boring, essential infrastructure stocks will continue to pay you in the form of divvies during those 10 years.

[Leftfield]

Just keep pondering mate, no safety net and no where to hide if something/anything goes wrong. Although it's a good product, it's not an essential one like power.

Interesting..... ATM not essential. I would have thought food/drink is a most basic essential. Perhaps you should talk to young mothers who use infant formula and others who suffer from Irritible Bowl Syndrome. ATM has a well proven 'unique proposition'.

I agree for those coming in now ATM may be looking a bit 'toppy', however for this long term holder/believer a 10 bagger is a welcome part of my portfolio. I agree with Yoda and will keep in my portfolio until it breaks below my TA MA indicators.

Lastly to understand ATM it helps to understand the Asian market and the impact of Daigou traders. Consider this quote from Hot Copper's poster Prophet's Insight.

"Saw some news on the Financial Review a few months ago that the biggest Daigou in Australia belongs to a low profile Vietnamese (most likely from a Chinese descendant) ... Nguyen in Regents park southwestern Sydney. Its net profit is around 300 mil a year and has become the biggest air freight customer for Qantas within a few years time. $300 mil is a astronomical figure for a daigou business it's greater than the net profit of A2m, Bal(which is making nothing for the previous year) and blackmores all combined. And more impressively is that he's only just one of the Daigous."

[couta1]

Left field, for most of the population water is the only essential drink, and for babies there is breast milk and other alternatives to ATM, so in that light it is not essential.

[Beagle]

Just keep pondering mate, no safety net and no where to hide if something/anything goes wrong. Although it's a good product, it's not an essential one like power.

Hi mate. Its nice to see you back on the forum posting regularly. I think to some extent that's fair comment but there is a large emerging middle class in China that want the very very best for their babies and are prepared to pay a premium price for that. Perhaps they see the best for their only child or if they are allowed / want to have two as really being essential ?

That said I think you make an excellent point about the dependability and reliability of utility companies through bad times and good.

[sb9]

Interesting..... ATM not essential. I would have thought food/drink is a most basic essential. Perhaps you should talk to young mothers who use infant formula and others who suffer from Irritible Bowl Syndrome. ATM has a well proven 'unique proposition'.

I agree for those coming in now ATM may be looking a bit 'toppy', however for this long term holder/believer a 10 bagger is a welcome part of my portfolio. I agree with Yoda and will keep in my portfolio until it breaks below my TA MA indicators.

Lastly to understand ATM it helps to understand the Asian market and the impact of Daigou traders. Consider this quote from Hot Copper's poster Prophet's Insight.

"Saw some news on the Financial Review a few months ago that the biggest Daigou in Australia belongs to a low profile Vietnamese (most likely from a Chinese descendant) ... Nguyen in Regents park southwestern Sydney. Its net profit is around 300 mil a year and has become the biggest air freight customer for Qantas within a few years time. $300 mil is a astronomical figure for a daigou business it's greater than the net profit of A2m, Bal(which is making nothing for the previous year) and blackmores all combined. And more impressively is that he's only just one of the Daigous."

Couldn't agree more lf, the word "essential" is very subjective and relative.

Some great insights on HC forum re Daigou traders from the mentioned poster and also robust discussion about Fonterra's position in overall dairy industry with insights from their ASM y'day.

[Leftfield]

Some more interesting speculation (and I stress 'speculation') about the news re Fontera bidding to takeover the Aust Milk producer, Murray Goulburn.

Here's what Hot Copper's poster, Working on Boats speculates today;

"My summary is that this is a great strategic move on account of both Fonterra and A2 should if it all come together for both parties. Coupled with the commentary of Fonterra possibly supplying a level of product (milk) to A2, Fonterra may have finally realised A2 milk protein could be the product of the future. So they're positioning themselves to gradually breed up the herds, and dispose of an "insignificant" amount of product to eagerly open armed A2 in the short/medium term. That's got to be a great help to A2's current & possible future supply problems. WIth A2's global patents already in place, competition may be a word we don't hear much about for a few years yet. In the meantime Synlait looking to open up the R&D facitilty here in NZ which one could assume is closely aligned with future growth/needs of A2. Fonterra has operated a R&D facility in NZ for years.

Fonterra s goal has always been to supply and sell as much milk based product as possible, obviously with huge variations in product, ie cheese butter yogurts etc. So if they manage to pull this off it's a win win. FOnterra supplies, A2 names/processes.

OMG the stars are more aligned than ever! I'm actually changing my sentiment today back to a "buy""

[777]

It wasn't long ago that Fonterra was rubbishing the A2 product.

[Yoda]

Some more interesting speculation (and I stress 'speculation') about the news re Fontera bidding to takeover the Aust Milk producer, Murray Goulburn.

Here's what Hot Copper's poster, Working on Boats speculates today;

"My summary is that this is a great strategic move on account of both Fonterra and A2 should if it all come together for both parties. Coupled with the commentary of Fonterra possibly supplying a level of product (milk) to A2, Fonterra may have finally realised A2 milk protein could be the product of the future. So they're positioning themselves to gradually breed up the herds, and dispose of an "insignificant" amount of product to eagerly open armed A2 in the short/medium term. That's got to be a great help to A2's current & possible future supply problems. WIth A2's global patents already in place, competition may be a word we don't hear much about for a few years yet. In the meantime Synlait looking to open up the R&D facitilty here in NZ which one could assume is closely aligned with future growth/needs of A2. Fonterra has operated a R&D facility in NZ for years.

Fonterra s goal has always been to supply and sell as much milk based product as possible, obviously with huge variations in product, ie cheese butter yogurts etc. So if they manage to pull this off it's a win win. FOnterra supplies, A2 names/processes.

OMG the stars are more aligned than ever! I'm actually changing my sentiment today back to a "buy""

Wow up 2% since you said that . You certainly have influence !