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  1. #7481
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Indeed, my Church donations are paid via AP and I wouldn't choose any other method.
    Couldn’t find that app AP in either the Google or Apple store
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #7482
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Couldn’t find that app AP in either the Google or Apple store
    Nah mate, it's the prehistoric abbreviation for Automatic Payment, you may remember those good old days. Some of us are still dinosaurs.

  3. #7483
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    Three days closing above the upper Bollinger, on a technical breakout, and standard indicators have some wiggle room to the upside before over bought. This could have legs, but history shows it doesn't hang around for long above that Bolly line. What would history know though eh? Cue Winner for a new price target.

  4. #7484
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    I've been thinking and a PE of 50 is not unreasonable for this stock looking at growth and US comparisons. Heck look at the multiples of Netflix Amazon and Facebook

  5. #7485
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    Three days closing above the upper Bollinger, on a technical breakout, and standard indicators have some wiggle room to the upside before over bought. This could have legs, but history shows it doesn't hang around for long above that Bolly line. What would history know though eh? Cue Winner for a new price target.
    I've missed out big time over the last year or so by not just holding this stock long term, finally resolved last week to just hold my latest holding for the next 5 years without touching it.(Some of us are slow to learn)

  6. #7486
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeremyALD View Post
    I've been thinking and a PE of 50 is not unreasonable for this stock looking at growth and US comparisons. Heck look at the multiples of Netflix Amazon and Facebook
    That sounds like confirmation bias JeremyALD, you can see plainly that the US techs are not valid comparisons, that ATM has run up on hype and sentiment, and punters have priced in perfection for lord know how many years ahead already. It's ripe for a serious wake-up call anytime sentiment chooses to rate it back to a sensible PE.

    Be nimble, but ride the upside until it bleeds, then cut the losses when they happen. Believe the story but never ride the pony back down the hill. Which it seems will inevitably happen, sometime. Actively manage capital, don't look for reasons why 'staying in' is the right thing to do, that just promotes reasons not to get the heck out when it turns to custard.

    Jmho fwiw
    BAA

  7. #7487
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    That sounds like confirmation bias JeremyALD, you can see plainly that the US techs are not valid comparisons, that ATM has run up on hype and sentiment, and punters have priced in perfection for lord know how many years ahead already. It's ripe for a serious wake-up call anytime sentiment chooses to rate it back to a sensible PE.

    Be nimble, but ride the upside until it bleeds, then cut the losses when they happen. Believe the story but never ride the pony back down the hill. Which it seems will inevitably happen, sometime. Actively manage capital, don't look for reasons why 'staying in' is the right thing to do, that just promotes reasons not to get the heck out when it turns to custard.

    Jmho fwiw
    BAA
    Good advice Baa Baa

  8. #7488
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    That sounds like confirmation bias JeremyALD, you can see plainly that the US techs are not valid comparisons, that ATM has run up on hype and sentiment, and punters have priced in perfection for lord know how many years ahead already. It's ripe for a serious wake-up call anytime sentiment chooses to rate it back to a sensible PE.

    Be nimble, but ride the upside until it bleeds, then cut the losses when they happen. Believe the story but never ride the pony back down the hill. Which it seems will inevitably happen, sometime. Actively manage capital, don't look for reasons why 'staying in' is the right thing to do, that just promotes reasons not to get the heck out when it turns to custard.

    Jmho fwiw
    BAA
    The growth that this valuation reflects is there.

    Every tin of formula they make is sold almost immediately, speak to a daigou and they will let you know how insane the demand really is.
    What daigous buy, everybody buys...

    50x earnings at a medium term target of 40+% growth is sensible.

    And currently trading at a Forward PE of 37-39x...

    I would like to know what a sensible PE on ATM would be to you and what assumptions you have made to get there?
    Last edited by hardt; 24-01-2018 at 07:57 PM.

  9. #7489
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    I've missed out big time over the last year or so by not just holding this stock long term, finally resolved last week to just hold my latest holding for the next 5 years without touching it.(Some of us are slow to learn)
    We're not on the same page as investors or traders Couta, we have quite different approaches, though not saying yours is not good for you, it's just not good for me.

    I would not be able to stomach holding an X(n)OS position (based on an arbitrary x+ years invested in the company) that was reverting to a sensible PE, or well below in a market correction or serious rout. I value capital preservation way above holding "for the long term". It's been quite a while since the market suffered a small rout, let alone a devastating rout, but they happen and will happen again.

    All's good when it going up, for sure. It's the downside and typically long time to recovery that honed my active management focus.

    I'll buy a fundamentally sound company, or something with solid growth prospects, or even a pure spec or two, but I won't just hold in spite of everything, which is why TA has served me very well.

    Some call it momentum trading. Run with the upside, enjoy the dividends if there are any, cut capital losses on the downside. That type of 'trading strategy' has no reference to timeframes, it just happens when the time is right.

  10. #7490
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    Quote Originally Posted by hardt View Post
    The growth that this valuation reflects is there.

    Every tin of formula they make is sold almost immediately, speak to a daigou and they will let you know how insane the demand really is.
    What daigous buy, everybody buys...

    50x earnings at a medium term target of 40+% growth is sensible.
    Sure, ride the wave until it breaks, then cut out, no one likes surfing the white water. Simple. It can be years before hyped-up stocks recover to their potential (when it breaks, which it will, I just don't know when precisely), but no reason why not to ride the momentum up, and cut losses on the downside. In, out, be quick, be nimble. Just don't buy the story and hold. Mugs game imho.

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