ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[JeremyALD]

I'm not so sure we'll get a trading update this month. Things seem to be tracking nicely as expected so there may be no need to update the market, unless they want to shut the shorters up again!

Definitely starting to get me tempted to top up, but think I'll wait to see if there's more downward pressure on the share price.

[kiora]

Has someone recorded this the wrong way round?Simple mistake?
https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...tm.nzx-316867/

[Hectorplains]

Has someone recorded this the wrong way round?Simple mistake?
https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...tm.nzx-316867/

No? Converted 1 .25m partly paid to fully paid. Still has 1.5m partly paid.

[Beagle]

I'm not so sure we'll get a trading update this month. Things seem to be tracking nicely as expected so there may be no need to update the market, unless they want to shut the shorters up again!

Definitely starting to get me tempted to top up, but think I'll wait to see if there's more downward pressure on the share price.

I'd be surprised if they didn't update the market as they'll know their third quarter results later this month and I would think there's material information in there that based on their past history the company is happy to update us with. I'm expecting a ripper update based on the CEO's confident statement about ongoing growth into China in yesterday's behind the paywall article and previous statements by the company about good January sales e.t.c.
Just the fact that they have finally managed to get adequate product supply since Synlait doubled their canning and drying capacity with new facilities in Auckland last November means product availability to consumers would have been good for the first time this quarter.

[forest]

I'd be surprised if they didn't update the market as they'll know their third quarter results later this month and I would think there's material information in there that based on their past history the company is happy to update us with. I'm expecting a ripper update based on the CEO's confident statement about ongoing growth into China in yesterday's behind the paywall article and previous statements by the company about good January sales e.t.c.
Just the fact that they have finally managed to get adequate product supply since Synlait doubled their canning and drying capacity with new facilities in Auckland last November means product availability to consumers would have been good for the first time this quarter.

The more time I spend learning about this company the more I am surprised about its growth. Normally companies with a larger market cap have limited grow potential.
ATM is now the larges public company by market cap in NZ and is more than likely growing its NPAT by over 100% for the year to 2018 compared to 2017.
But if that is not impressive the company is likely to have over $300mil sitting on standby which could go on advertising if that was ever needed.
Wondering if I am missing something, I try to be wary when investing but I can not see much to be wary about in this case.

[Sideshow Bob]

The more time I spend learning about this company the more I am surprised about its growth. Normally companies with a larger market cap have limited grow potential.
ATM is now the larges public company by market cap in NZ and is more than likely growing its NPAT by over 100% for the year to 2018 compared to 2017.
But if that is not impressive the company is likely to have over $300mil sitting on standby which could go on advertising if that was ever needed.
Wondering if I am missing something, I try to be wary when investing but I can not see much to be wary about in this case.

The company is really in early stages of growth - with much of the success to date having been on the back of the Chinese IF market. Undoubtedly management has been astute, and has been focused on the market, partnering up on production/processing - not having (much) money invested in stainless steel, or management time focused on production. Strong operating cashflows, money in the bank, lots of growth etc. Sure the PE is high (approx. 60) but still lots of growth initiatives still to come to fruition, and lots more on the horizon. Compare that to Bellamy's at about 164 and I know which I'd rather be holding.

Of course a lot of posters look at ATM through rose-tinted glasses (as I recognize I often do), but a lot of holders bought in sub $1 - so they are going to have a bit of a soft spot for this company. They are a long way above water, and I personally have done very well out of them, but like many not as well as I might or could have!! Like anything there is risk, especially around potential competitors and where that a2 space goes to - natural when A2 are doing so well. The company has a perennial history of under-promising and over-performing, and see nothing on the horizon to change this view. Even the announcement Monday with their Korean partner seems a very good partnership, and a reputable player.

The frustrating thing for holders is the share price volatility, and heavy activity of shorters. Also that A2 updates never come around fast enough......

[Sideshow Bob]

Even if they replicate the 1H 2018 result in 2H 2018, then their PE will be 45.

[forest]

Even if they replicate the 1H 2018 result in 2H 2018, then their PE will be 45.

More than likely ATM will make more than the $99m NPAT in the second half. This means a forwards 2018 P/E less than 45. Growth over 100%, all common indicators absolutely stellar and likely to improve. And all that cash pile, could well be growing by a $1m a day. Still trying to be wary but it is getting harder by the day.

[Beagle]

I'm expecting EPS of 30 - 35 cps this year and ~ 45 cps next year. I have them on a FY19 PE multiple in the late 20's. Market is forward looking.
I see considerable potential for ongoing SP appreciation in the years ahead and believe on FY 19's estimates the company is arguably one of the best value high growth stocks on the NZX. Just hold and have heaps of patience.

[forest]

I'm expecting EPS of 30 - 35 cps this year and ~ 45 cps next year. I have them on a FY19 PE multiple in the late 20's. Market is forward looking.
I see considerable potential for ongoing SP appreciation in the years ahead and believe on FY 19's estimates the company is arguably one of the best value high growth stocks on the NZX. Just hold and have heaps of patience.

I agree, its very hard to come to any other view. Makes investing a bit easier.