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16-05-2018, 09:03 AM
#8461
Originally Posted by winner69
Exponential growth continues = $1 billion
Trend growth continues = ~$900m
Stuff fairy tale are made of growth = $1.1 billion
Somebody said $1 billion would be smashed
Always was going to be ~$900m
Margins about same as H1 and the hint of higher marketing some punters earnings forecasts are under threat as well
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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16-05-2018, 09:05 AM
#8462
I was hoping for 1 billion but honestly never expected it. Seems to be in line with expectations but I fear that the market will send the SP a bit lower in the near term
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16-05-2018, 09:18 AM
#8463
Originally Posted by Ggcc
I’m still happy to see them grow at 70% per annum. I never expected them to reach sales of over 1 billion. I am more than happy if the reach 900-920 million.
Their backward CAGR (2012 to 2018) is 56%. Not bad. Given that they grow now with 70%, this means their growth is still accelerating. Quite amazing.
If we put this growth into the Graham formula than their value would be well beyond the current share price (actually above $40 per share, or $23 if I use the beagles more conservative parameters) ... but hey, nobody can consistently keep growing with this rate - or can they?
So, I guess the current share price appears to be quite fair ... though, happy to pick some more up around $10 (hint, hint ... there is still this gap around $9.50);
Happy holder.
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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16-05-2018, 09:22 AM
#8464
They usually under promise over deliver don’t they?
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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16-05-2018, 09:27 AM
#8465
Originally Posted by winner69
They usually under promise over deliver don’t they?
That's the thing, they could still end up close to the 1 billion yet.
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16-05-2018, 09:38 AM
#8466
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Their backward CAGR (2012 to 2018) is 56%. Not bad. Given that they grow now with 70%, this means their growth is still accelerating. Quite amazing.
If we put this growth into the Graham formula than their value would be well beyond the current share price (actually above $40 per share, or $23 if I use the beagles more conservative parameters) ... but hey, nobody can consistently keep growing with this rate - or can they?
So, I guess the current share price appears to be quite fair ... though, happy to pick some more up around $10 (hint, hint ... there is still this gap around $9.50);
Happy holder.
Doesn’t that just show that Graham’s formula is nonsensical in an environment of high growth
But gives one the warm fuzzies eh.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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16-05-2018, 09:38 AM
#8467
Originally Posted by silu
I was hoping for 1 billion but honestly never expected it. Seems to be in line with expectations but I fear that the market will send the SP a bit lower in the near term
We need to stop reading quarter on quarter. This is a long term play. Traders will have fun. Other wise lock some in when the price is right and just enjoy the over all trend upwards
Edit - opps. Possibly a bit too flippant. Of course we should read quarterly results etc. But the hype is for the traders. Its the underlying trend that is important.
Last edited by minimoke; 16-05-2018 at 09:40 AM.
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16-05-2018, 09:46 AM
#8468
Originally Posted by minimoke
We need to stop reading quarter on quarter. This is a long term play. Traders will have fun. Other wise lock some in when the price is right and just enjoy the over all trend upwards
Edit - opps. Possibly a bit too flippant. Of course we should read quarterly results etc. But the hype is for the traders. Its the underlying trend that is important.
Yeah with that kind of growth I'm not bothered with short term fluctuations in SP at all. Something big and bad will have to happen before I sell my remaining shares. I want to be part of this story - be in it to win it.
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16-05-2018, 09:47 AM
#8469
Hamilton Hibden Greene guru
Grant Davies (@G_T_Davies)
16/05/18, 9:30 AM
Will be an interesting trading day for @a2milk . Broker consensus revenue forecast was $952m, a2 now forecasting $900-920m. Also higher expenditure in the US & China. Are we looking at a rare miss for NZ's favourite growth story?
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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16-05-2018, 09:57 AM
#8470
A bit of an over reaction showing up in the quotes. 11.80 now.
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