ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[winner69]

Exponential growth continues = $1 billion
Trend growth continues = ~$900m
Stuff fairy tale are made of growth = $1.1 billion

Somebody said $1 billion would be smashed

Always was going to be ~$900m

Margins about same as H1 and the hint of higher marketing some punters earnings forecasts are under threat as well

[silu]

I was hoping for 1 billion but honestly never expected it. Seems to be in line with expectations but I fear that the market will send the SP a bit lower in the near term

[BlackPeter]

I’m still happy to see them grow at 70% per annum. I never expected them to reach sales of over 1 billion. I am more than happy if the reach 900-920 million.

Their backward CAGR (2012 to 2018) is 56%. Not bad. Given that they grow now with 70%, this means their growth is still accelerating. Quite amazing.

If we put this growth into the Graham formula than their value would be well beyond the current share price (actually above $40 per share, or $23 if I use the beagles more conservative parameters) ... but hey, nobody can consistently keep growing with this rate - or can they?

So, I guess the current share price appears to be quite fair ... though, happy to pick some more up around $10 (hint, hint ... there is still this gap around $9.50);

Happy holder.

[winner69]

They usually under promise over deliver don’t they?

[couta1]

They usually under promise over deliver don’t they?

That's the thing, they could still end up close to the 1 billion yet.

[winner69]

Their backward CAGR (2012 to 2018) is 56%. Not bad. Given that they grow now with 70%, this means their growth is still accelerating. Quite amazing.

If we put this growth into the Graham formula than their value would be well beyond the current share price (actually above $40 per share, or $23 if I use the beagles more conservative parameters) ... but hey, nobody can consistently keep growing with this rate - or can they?

So, I guess the current share price appears to be quite fair ... though, happy to pick some more up around $10 (hint, hint ... there is still this gap around $9.50);

Happy holder.

Doesn’t that just show that Graham’s formula is nonsensical in an environment of high growth

But gives one the warm fuzzies eh.

[minimoke]

I was hoping for 1 billion but honestly never expected it. Seems to be in line with expectations but I fear that the market will send the SP a bit lower in the near term

We need to stop reading quarter on quarter. This is a long term play. Traders will have fun. Other wise lock some in when the price is right and just enjoy the over all trend upwards

Edit - opps. Possibly a bit too flippant. Of course we should read quarterly results etc. But the hype is for the traders. Its the underlying trend that is important.

[silu]

We need to stop reading quarter on quarter. This is a long term play. Traders will have fun. Other wise lock some in when the price is right and just enjoy the over all trend upwards

Edit - opps. Possibly a bit too flippant. Of course we should read quarterly results etc. But the hype is for the traders. Its the underlying trend that is important.

Yeah with that kind of growth I'm not bothered with short term fluctuations in SP at all. Something big and bad will have to happen before I sell my remaining shares. I want to be part of this story - be in it to win it.

[winner69]

Hamilton Hibden Greene guru

Grant Davies (@G_T_Davies)
16/05/18, 9:30 AM
Will be an interesting trading day for @a2milk . Broker consensus revenue forecast was $952m, a2 now forecasting $900-920m. Also higher expenditure in the US & China. Are we looking at a rare miss for NZ's favourite growth story?

[777]

A bit of an over reaction showing up in the quotes. 11.80 now.