ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[couta1]

looks like citi winning at the moment

Probably accumulating before May 31st.

[dreamcatcher]

https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments...s-pdf.1106551/

Note their EPS estimate for FY19 of 43 cps ! Forward PE for FY19 at $11.70 is just 27, just a little more than Ryman and which company is growing faster !

New Revision from GS FY19 of 39 cps..........interesting to read GS suggestion that ATM quote "intentional pullback of supply by A2M to
allow older products to clear the market, and for a smoother transition of their new product, rather than being reflective of a slowdown in demand. We continue to see the strong demand profile for A2M remaining intact"

HotCopper from "Ginger_Step_" in answer to question about why some large shops in HK not stocking IF product.

Dated 17/05/2018

"We have been struggling to meet demand for close to 3 years now, the company is hardly going to use a shotgun approach and spread the short supply over too many locations - if you know our management you would know that every move or decision is strategically snipered to provide the best long term value to the company. Give it time, a2 will be as easy to find as coke in China - we just need the supply and carefully managed growth strategies to get there. 9400 locations in china is pretty good in my books after just 3 or 4 years!"

Thank you "Ginger_Steps_" ........800+ posts all on A2M clearly very well informed and one to follow.

[Leftfield]

Dreamcatcher - you are right re Ginger Steps, he has long been a very informed poster on ATM both on this site and more recently via Hot Copper. He was instrumental in getting me on board back in the 53 cents days.

[dreamcatcher]

HotCopper A2M forum dated 17/05/2018

Ginger_Steps_ reply to a suggestion that "Share price can go anywhere with just speculations"

Quote "Wow @pp , your ignorance and arrogance is astounding - I am embarrassed for you! You have been hilariously exposed as an ex A2M shareholder who sold out waaaaaay to early (missing ca 1000% gains!) and obviously like quite a few other investors earlier in this thread ( @Durr_Trades @westsurf @gred @AllFuelledUp ) are very sour that you missed out on massive gains from the best stock on the ASX. The company posted Q3 revenues 70% higher over PCP (and not off a small base anymore) and you peanuts actually think the stock is going to crash to nowheresville - friggin ROFLMAO!
And back to you @pp - you think that we hit a SP of ~$13 on "just speculations"?!! You'd better add blindness to that list of yours I began compiling above. a2 has grown revenues from $155M to $920M in four financial years - if you call that "just speculation" then I would say you have MUCH bigger problems on your financial horizon. See attached image.

And to all of you above, please show me another company that is growing at 70% off such a large base anywhere on the ASX?? Would love to see it. Your posts are shameless and wreak of desperation, broken hearts and lost dreams. Don't quit your day jobs - obviously you are not very good at this trading / investing thing.....

And because I am fairly confident none of you have done a speck of research on A2M out of pure envy, I will let you in on a couple of clues as to what next year will bring: Revenue from 3 new major sources (including Fonterra), Chinese infant formula MARKET growth of 30% on top of our market share growing at ~100% in China ANNUALLY, 4 new products, Synlait building yet another site for IF capacity.

a2 sales growth is unchanged i.e. ACCELERATING - and you are missing out (not that that concerns me in the least - I'm just here to call you out). Ill leave you all with this image from the recent update."

Again "Ginger_Step_"...... Thank You for sharing your future vision

Another HUGE Chinese shopping event called 618 taking place on 18/06/2018 shortly after 1st June MSCI inclusion

Surprising what you find on a boring evening at home...............stories that investors DREAMS are made from ............

[minimoke]

Oh, how about that. Seems I have bought myself some more at 1115. That will teach me not to keep an eye on open orders.

[Leftfield]

Thanks for more inspiration from Ginger Steps Dreamcatcher.

Nice to be reminded;

"a couple of clues as to what next year will bring: Revenue from 3 new major sources (including Fonterra), Chinese infant formula MARKET growth of 30% on top of our market share growing at ~100% in China ANNUALLY, 4 new products, Synlait building yet another site for IF capacity."

For those in need of more inspiration, this from HotCopper poster JZ Huang FYI.

"We are only one month away from 618 shopping festival hosted by JD.com, which is second largest online shopping event in China. Close to US $9B money was spent on the day last year, compared to $26B as for 11/11. I wouldn't be surprised at all if A2MC eventually manage to beat $920M upper bound forecast after successfully participation of this event. Hold tight and finger crossed. June is critical."

[hardt]

Anecdotal evidence, looking on WeChat still rabid all over A2.
Not difficult understanding the supply affect of inventory phasing into China label... Nothing we haven't seen before from a mongoloidinous* selldown.

Not to say retracting multiples won't occur before this obvious fact is proven in the next report.

Citi had a sell rating and PT at £2.50 for most of early to mid 2017 when the worries of regulation spooked the market... It's just an opportunity to keep the pressure on to short into a squeeze in a month or two.

[couta1]

Another week of Game of Thrones, be sure to tune in for another exciting series next week. PS-Really looking forward to the May 31st episode, should be an epic watch.

[JeremyALD]

240m revenue in Q4 is still almost bigger than the entire first half in FY17. So the growth is well and truly alive.

[waterboy]

some more info on the 6.18 chinese shopping festival

JD.com’s 6.18 festival has grown in recent years to become a massive mid-year ecommerce event, with rival retailers also getting involved and offering discounts and savings for their customers.

JD said it sold 700 million items, with an increase in categories such as fashion, luxury and maternity products. Sales of fresh food quintupled, according to JD, with orders for 7,664 tonnes of food. Among these were 200 tonnes of beef, 57 million cherries, 10,000 tonnes of baby milk powder, 1 billion nappies and 3.6 tonnes of Haagen-Dazs ice cream.

JD.com controls one-quarter (24.7%) of China’s ecommerce market, however it lags behind Alibaba’s Tmall which dominates the sector with 56.6%, according to iResearch China"

The numbers are huge if they can get enough product over there.
Shame about the share price being manipulated by the big boys while retail investors are to small to do much ...how else do you explain all the little trades that go through... much more so on asx than nz...bal does same thing at same time...almost the same chart for last yr or so..to much of a coincidence.
hopefully the fundamentals win in the end