ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[bohemian]

some more info on the 6.18 chinese shopping festival

JD.com’s 6.18 festival has grown in recent years to become a massive mid-year ecommerce event, with rival retailers also getting involved and offering discounts and savings for their customers.

JD said it sold 700 million items, with an increase in categories such as fashion, luxury and maternity products. Sales of fresh food quintupled, according to JD, with orders for 7,664 tonnes of food. Among these were 200 tonnes of beef, 57 million cherries, 10,000 tonnes of baby milk powder, 1 billion nappies and 3.6 tonnes of Haagen-Dazs ice cream.

JD.com controls one-quarter (24.7%) of China’s ecommerce market, however it lags behind Alibaba’s Tmall which dominates the sector with 56.6%, according to iResearch China"

The numbers are huge if they can get enough product over there.
Shame about the share price being manipulated by the big boys while retail investors are to small to do much ...how else do you explain all the little trades that go through... much more so on asx than nz...bal does same thing at same time...almost the same chart for last yr or so..to much of a coincidence.
hopefully the fundamentals win in the end

What's a 6.18 festival?

[Sideshow Bob]

What's a 6.18 festival?

I would guess a made up 'festival' so to have a sale. Like Singles Day.....

[dreamcatcher]

CHINA'S E-COMMERCE SHOPPING FESTIVAL DATES............ 618 China's second most prominent e-commerce festival after Single’s Day, celebrates the foundation of JD.com

http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2...festivals.html

[Beagle]

Another week of Game of Thrones, be sure to tune in for another exciting series next week. PS-Really looking forward to the May 31st episode, should be an epic watch.

Riding this wild tiger and clinging on for dear life. Was up about 20 cps when I left for the boat show at about 11.00 a.m. and down 47cps when I got home after close of trade. Just as well I didn't buy anything lol. Never a dull moment with this one.

[Snoopy]

Snoopy Wrote: "And of course the reason A2 are 'debt free' is that they have only recently transitioned from a loss making start up. Loss making start ups are always 'debt free', because there isn't a snowballs chance in hell of any bank lending them any money!"

This loss maker somehow made a profit for 7 out of the last 10 years in business...
Enough funds and investors were backing A2 to allow for ample amounts of debt if required... not sure what you are on about there either.

My view of the normalised profits for A2 Milk over the last five years is as follows:

FY2013: $4.120om + 0.7( $0.824m -$0.121m) = $4.612m
FY2014 $0.010m +0.7($0.597m) = $0.4279m
FY2015: -$2.091m +0.7($1.681m-$0.831m) = -$1.497m
FY2016: $30.4m + 0.7($0.753m) = $30.9m
FY2017: $90.6m + 0.7($2.435m+$0.265m) = $92.5m

Notes:

1/ For FY2013 I have removed $0.824m of strategic review costs.
2/ For FY2015 I have removed the $1.681m worth of ASX listing costs
3/ For FY2017 I have removed $2.435m of intangible asset impairments
4/ For all years I have added back the foreign exchange losses (or removed the foreign exchange gains)

I haven't gone back over ten years because in the light of where the business is today, those early years are not really meaningful. I might even suggest only the last two years have been meaningful! Before then the business pretty much ran on the smell of an oily rag. I would suggest that pre FY2016, the business was in no position to take on debt. Not that this mattered. There wasn't a problem when shareholders were called upon to put in more funds instead.

In terms of 'earnings per share', I get the following results:

FY2013: $4.612m / 617.232m = 0.01cps
FY2014 $0.4279m / 633.066m = 0.00cps
FY2015: -$1.497m / 639.327m = 0.00cps
FY2016: $30.9m / 715.570m = 4.3cps
FY2017: $92.5m / 718.238m = 12.9cps

The eps figures more clearly illustrate how far ATM has come over the last two years.

SNOOPY

[Valuegrowth]

When assets become overcrowded or overvalued there could be sell-off.Some sell-off creates great opportunity. If this drop below $10, it can go down further similar to Xero which fell sharply after dropping some key support levels. Later, it recovered somewhat. Intelligent investors who bought this stock at a great value will ignore volatility as long as they see growth potential and create long term shareholder value.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...-idUSKCN1IH0T9

[Leftfield]

I'm interested in TA thoughts on the following.

ATM at 18 May 18.jpg

Fridays SP seems poised between two gaps, A and B. MACD Sentiment is now negative.

I suspect the short term 'downside' potential to $9.00 is strong, however, at some stage the SP will revert to trend and fill the upper gap $!2.00 to $13.00

If the lower gap gets filled first, it would appear to be a good buying opportunity.

Another interpretation is that the SP has already tried to fill the lower gap and failed, so the upper gap is the more likely trend.

For long term investors it's all rather academic, but for those wanting to add more A2M, it's interesting times.

[McGinty]

I'm interested in TA thoughts on the following.

ATM at 18 May 18.jpg

Fridays SP seems poised between two gaps, A and B. MACD Sentiment is now negative.

I suspect the short term 'downside' potential to $9.00 is strong, however, at some stage the SP will revert to trend and fill the upper gap $!2.00 to $13.00

If the lower gap gets filled first, it would appear to be a good buying opportunity.

Another interpretation is that the SP has already tried to fill the lower gap and failed, so the upper gap is the more likely trend.

For long term investors it's all rather academic, but for those wanting to add more A2M, it's interesting times.

Hi Left field, I'll share my TA thoughts on A2M (note I've used a chart of A2M on the ASX as the charting platform is better).

As you mentioned A2 has both a upper and lower gap, as to which one gets filled first...only the market knows.

Upper one fills first - there is a lot of overhead resistance that will sell into any positive SP movement, thereby creating a roof on the SP

Lower one fills first - there is good support and should provide a solid floor to the SP (unless further negative surprise news breaks this)

In any case the A2M chart needs to consolidated for a good period of time to shake out all the overhead resistance (weak holders who are trapped with losses), before it will be a buy in my book.

Attachment 9684

Addition TA signals with the current chart (attached):

- Price under all short term moving averages (most importantly the 50 SMA)
- 50 SMA is trending down
- MACD turned negative
- DMI turned negative
- Failed to break through $11 (AUD) resistance
- Large sell off volume (Funds and insto's exiting)

Please note for other ST readers - I'm a momentum investor and have my own system to exit a stock once that momentum stalls or fails. My views that I'm sharing will be different to a short term trader or a long term investor.

Disc - I held A2M up until the stock broke it's 26 SMA

[couta1]

Too hard to say where this will head over the next while, except May 31st where the price will definitely be significantly up for a short period. TA theories will always be trumped by news, good or bad.In truth the stock price is completely determined and controlled by the game players in the short term, the big boys drive the price down and mop up the shares offered up by retail holders, they then allow the price to rise again before retesting to see how many weak hands are left and so on. That's just one of the many games played with this stock, hence it's volatility and wide daily price spread, ultimately as long as growth continues and potential is realised then there is only one way for the SP to go.