ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[bull....]

Originally Posted by bull....
correct , thats why i believe it will be a non event or down as a surprise

following the plan nicely you imagine sml will fall back too now after artificial boost in price

[Muppett]

WOW, Well just on three quarters of a billion dollars combined value traded on both sides of the Tasman suggests the current price is fair value for now so as you suggest hopefully there's lower volatility going forward...time will tell.

Seems not.

[Joshuatree]

10.3% shorted yest , by volume.

[bull....]

yep looks like the msci rise was from 10 - 11 now its back to trend

[JohnnyTheHorse]

MSCI Index inclusion is only good if it's going up. If it's going down, you now have ~10% of the shareholders selling down to maintain weightings... snowball sort of thing.

[winner69]

Realistic DCF valuation is only around $9.75 ....anything higher has really high growth rates lasting a long time.

Nut that’s only one opinion

[mikeybycrikey]

Realistic DCF valuation is only around $9.75 ....anything higher has really high growth rates lasting a long time.

Nut that’s only one opinion

The problem with trying to value high growth companies is that any valuation is highly dependant on how long the growth continues for. 70% growth for 5 years is hugely different from 20% growth for 5 years.

And trying to estimate growth rates is a bit of a guessing game.

[mfd]

MSCI Index inclusion is only good if it's going up. If it's going down, you now have ~10% of the shareholders selling down to maintain weightings... snowball sort of thing.

Won't the weightings more or less maintain themselves? The desired weight drops, but proportional to how the value of their stake has dropped already.

[winner69]

Won't the weightings more or less maintain themselves? The desired weight drops, but proportional to how the value of their stake has dropped already.

I think you are right .....as I understand it the actual weightings of stocks in the index don’t change that often (might not be until the next quarterly change) So until then no impact on ATM or other stocks in the index.

But if there is a mass withdrawal from those index funds then selling pressure (of all stocks in the index) could ensue ....and that could trigger even more withdrawals etc etc

Not guaranteed correct - sometimes I’m wrong.

[winner69]

The problem with trying to value high growth companies is that any valuation is highly dependant on how long the growth continues for. 70% growth for 5 years is hugely different from 20% growth for 5 years.

And trying to estimate growth rates is a bit of a guessing game.

Totally agree...all depends on your guesses / assumptions eh

But things like DCFs are more robust guesses than doing the lazy way of guessing what’s an appropriate earnings multiple to come to a value

All we really know is that at the moment the consensus view is its worth just over 10 bucks ....how did the market arrive at that value?