sharetrader
Page 959 of 2376 FirstFirst ... 4598599099499559569579589599609619629639691009105914591959 ... LastLast
Results 9,581 to 9,590 of 23752
  1. #9581
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Location
    Napier
    Posts
    2,019

    Default

    Interesting post I read from hotcopper
    If those turnover targets are correct I would think he/she maybe correct with sp guidance.
    Of course do your own research!! I just got my Fresha valley A2 milk from countdown and it tastes so much better than the other milks I have tried, It reminds me of the milk we drank when we were younger........ Not as watery as some of what we drink nowadays.

    The current share price weakness is due to change in sentiment provoked by China trade war, and some analysts worried China sales are stalling.

    NOW is the time to buy.

    I think we will see $20 in 2020 and then move towards $40 in years to follow.

    My reasons are below...

    Growth in China IF will continue towards 10% and well beyond. This will be underpinned by strong MBS sales (not so much online sales)
    Infant formula and milk powder sales in rest of Asia will start to build, this will be underpinned by, South Korea which will surprise, Additional South east Asia markets, such as Vietnam.
    Additional product launches in China label, stage 4, pregnancy, individual sachets.
    Liquid milk infant formula launched in China. Will be a huge market as flagged by Synlait. Another growth area.
    USA sales will accelerate, during FY19, and accelerate further in FY20. This will be on the back of the increased marketing. Infant formula will be rolled out. This will be the next growth engine.
    UK will continue to be a very small market. Infant formula will be launched.
    NZ fresh milk will launch early FY19 (possibly August).
    Middle East infant formula to launch in 2H19 (Fonterra)
    Additional product launches from Fonterra, cheese, butter, cream. Also nutritional powders, chocolate powder protein shake, vanilla powder protein shake.
    Additional growth in Australia market. Driven by substantial increased supply from synlait, and new powder products from Fonterra. Diagou sales will continue to grow.
    Synlait Wakaito infant formula manufacturing plant to start production in FY19
    Synlait Dunsandel long life liquid milk plant to open FY20
    Fonterra site operational in FY19
    New canning site purchased by A2M / Fonterra
    special dividend and market buy back announced.

    Based off the above growth (which will be underpinned by an approximate doubling of supply in next 2 years) I estimate the following revenues...


    FY19 - 1.4 billion up 55%

    FY20 - 2 billion up 40%


    So as I said... $20 in 2020
    Last edited by Ggcc; 21-07-2018 at 03:41 PM.

  2. #9582
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Ggcc View Post
    Interesting post I read from hotcopper
    If those turnover targets are correct I would think he/she maybe correct with sp guidance.
    Of course do your own research!! I just got my Fresha valley A2 milk from countdown and it tastes so much better than the other milks I have tried, It reminds me of the milk we drank when we were younger........ Not as watery as some of what we drink nowadays.

    The current share price weakness is due to change in sentiment provoked by China trade war, and some analysts worried China sales are stalling.

    NOW is the time to buy.

    I think we will see $20 in 2020 and then move towards $40 in years to follow.

    My reasons are below...

    Growth in China IF will continue towards 10% and well beyond. This will be underpinned by strong MBS sales (not so much online sales)
    Infant formula and milk powder sales in rest of Asia will start to build, this will be underpinned by, South Korea which will surprise, Additional South east Asia markets, such as Vietnam.
    Additional product launches in China label, stage 4, pregnancy, individual sachets.
    Liquid milk infant formula launched in China. Will be a huge market as flagged by Synlait. Another growth area.
    USA sales will accelerate, during FY19, and accelerate further in FY20. This will be on the back of the increased marketing. Infant formula will be rolled out. This will be the next growth engine.
    UK will continue to be a very small market. Infant formula will be launched.
    NZ fresh milk will launch early FY19 (possibly August).
    Middle East infant formula to launch in 2H19 (Fonterra)
    Additional product launches from Fonterra, cheese, butter, cream. Also nutritional powders, chocolate powder protein shake, vanilla powder protein shake.
    Additional growth in Australia market. Driven by substantial increased supply from synlait, and new powder products from Fonterra. Diagou sales will continue to grow.
    Synlait Wakaito infant formula manufacturing plant to start production in FY19
    Synlait Dunsandel long life liquid milk plant to open FY20
    Fonterra site operational in FY19
    New canning site purchased by A2M / Fonterra
    special dividend and market buy back announced.

    Based off the above growth (which will be underpinned by an approximate doubling of supply in next 2 years) I estimate the following revenues...


    FY19 - 1.4 billion up 55%

    FY20 - 2 billion up 40%


    So as I said... $20 in 2020
    Nice....and all on a lower $Kiwi !
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #9583
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,739

    Default

    Ggcc

    FY21 $3 billion up 50%

    So as I said $30 in 2021

    And as your hotcopper friend says $40 in 2021 (that’s years after eh)
    Last edited by winner69; 21-07-2018 at 03:57 PM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #9584
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2017
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    55

    Default

    The IF volume in the USA is driven by Tenders run by individual states for food aid programmes. Only the large players have capacity to participate. A2 would need a top end niche outside that game to survive in IF there.

  5. #9585
    Banned
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    8,516

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Ggcc

    FY21 $3 billion up 50%

    So as I said $30 in 2021

    And as your hotcopper friend says $40 in 2021 (that’s years after eh)
    If XRO can trade at $50 NZ without making a profit then A2 should smash it out of the park over the coming years.

  6. #9586
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    9,497

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    If XRO can trade at $50 NZ without making a profit then A2 should smash it out of the park over the coming years.
    Don't think you can compare the two. The difference is scale-ability and hype. XRO licenses are infinitely multipliable without additional cost. A2 still needs to find cows and somehow contribute to their upkeep for every liter of milk or kg of milk solids they sell ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  7. #9587
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    485

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    If XRO can trade at $50 NZ without making a profit then A2 should smash it out of the park over the coming years.
    I suspect most of the ST's must be on the green unlike me...My average is $11 and i was one of the late entrants to the party(sold it around $3 and bought it again).My intention is to hold it until 2020 and i am hoping A2 will make substantial progress in new markets such as Korea and the middle east.

    Also has the SP drop of late is due to the repackaging of its brands and selling the existing ones at the discounted price?

    Thanks BP and Bull for providing good analysis.

  8. #9588
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Don't think you can compare the two. The difference is scale-ability and hype. XRO licenses are infinitely multipliable without additional cost. A2 still needs to find cows and somehow contribute to their upkeep for every liter of milk or kg of milk solids they sell ...

    Tax laws in various jurisdictions are changing on a very regular basis so the need to update software to cope will be an ongoing cost. In addition to that there's a vast choice when it comes to accounting program's out there. Only time will tell how profitable XRO might be but for me that one still rates rates as highly speculative.
    I'd rather own something with real earnings.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #9589
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    9,497

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Tax laws in various jurisdictions are changing on a very regular basis so the need to update software to cope will be an ongoing cost. In addition to that there's a vast choice when it comes to accounting program's out there. Only time will tell how profitable XRO might be but for me that one still rates rates as highly speculative.
    I'd rather own something with real earnings.
    Absolutely. Never said that XRO is better, only that the two are not really comparable. Currently holding neither.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #9590
    Banned
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    8,516

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Absolutely. Never said that XRO is better, only that the two are not really comparable. Currently holding neither.
    My point wasn't really comparing the two per se, but rather A2 is a highly profitable business sitting on a cash pile where as XRO to date is not ,yet it has smashed it in terms of SP. Lets not forget that XRO went from $45 down to $12 on route to $50, maybe there is a similarity between the two in this respect.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •