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26-11-2017, 01:40 PM
#7211
Here’s my summary of FY18 Forecasts
Leftfield $10 to $12
Hardt $9.46 to $12.62
NZ Silver $8.21 to $10.80
Maquaries $9.20
FNZC $8.50
Goldman Sachs $8.85
Snoopy $3.00
It's going to be interesting to see where we are by the next update, end Feb 2018.
Last edited by Leftfield; 26-11-2017 at 02:25 PM.
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26-11-2017, 02:05 PM
#7212
Originally Posted by Left field
So here’s FY18 Forecast summary
Leftfield $10 to $12
Hardt $9.46 to $12.62
NZ Silver $8.21 to $10.80
Maquaries $9.20
FNZC $8.50
Goldman Sachs $8.85
Snoopy $3.00
We live in interesting times.
Discount leftfield, hardt and silvers a fraction for their enthusiastic exhuberence and add a bit to Snoopy’s for his undue pessism you get an average of $8.68 as a target (in a years time?)
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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26-11-2017, 02:40 PM
#7213
Hardt - you should extrapolate you Distributial Cashflow out a few more years and put all of them into a DCF and then work out an implied terminal growth rate to support a $9 share price.
Could be interesting what you come up with
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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26-11-2017, 06:03 PM
#7214
Originally Posted by Left field
Here’s my summary of FY18 Forecasts
Leftfield $10 to $12
Hardt $9.46 to $12.62
NZ Silver $8.21 to $10.80
Maquaries $9.20
FNZC $8.50
Goldman Sachs $8.85
Snoopy $3.00
It's going to be interesting to see where we are by the next update, end Feb 2018.
Dont forget Forbarr - $9.50 i think?
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26-11-2017, 08:47 PM
#7215
TDI Indicator shows ATM has not topped out yet.
This weekend I went on a garden tour and started chatting to a retired man about the garden and the weather. He then said “My friends are all advising me to get into the share market.” We then had a conversation about ATM. He is unsure of whether to buy so he was not telling me to buy, which confirms that the TDI indicator still has room to move up.
TDI - The Taxi Driver Indicator
When your taxi driver starts talking to you about the latest "hot stock," we are almost certainly at a market top! Many Manhattan investors have used the taxi driver indicator to gauge when they should be more cautious when it comes to their investments.
When everybody is giving you their stock market opinions, this is typical as a direct result of strong widespread performances among most shares. It also demonstrates that greed has overtaken caution, and people are stampeding into investments.
While not as commonly followed as most economic indicators, the taxi driver indicator should be. Specifically, because it is consistently reliable and accurate.
The point when you see the "taxi driver indicator," it usually implies that the stock market is currently highly overvalued. The next move for investments is typically going to be sharply lower, and usually pretty soon too.
https://www.thebalance.com/little-kn...cators-4114321
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26-11-2017, 09:09 PM
#7216
TDI is a bit like the Shoe Shine boy, or when Winner's bowling mates are buying, then start selling, and when they're in the doldrums selling, start buying? It's nice that Winner tells us about the bowling mates, whether there are any or not, as it's a helpful way to interpret the market sentiment around irrational exuberance and desolation. Market sentiment is everything, just have to learn how to tap into it and respond to it.
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26-11-2017, 09:19 PM
#7217
My guess is the TDI is not at the level it was before October '87.
Last edited by 777; 26-11-2017 at 09:21 PM.
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26-11-2017, 09:21 PM
#7218
Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
TDI is a bit like the Shoe Shine boy, or when Winner's bowling mates are buying, then start selling, and when they're in the doldrums selling, start buying? It's nice that Winner tells us about the bowling mates, whether there are any or not, as it's a helpful way to interpret the market sentiment around irrational exuberance and desolation. Market sentiment is everything, just have to learn how to tap into it and respond to it.
TDI and SSB indicators were all before the internet . Now we have share-trader and Facebook !
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26-11-2017, 09:51 PM
#7219
Originally Posted by winner69
Hardt - you should extrapolate you Distributial Cashflow out a few more years and put all of them into a DCF and then work out an implied terminal growth rate to support a $9 share price.
Could be interesting what you come up with
Why bother Winner - just ask your bowling club mates.
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27-11-2017, 10:41 AM
#7220
difference is ATM is generating some serious cash, not just paper profits on some BS asset
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