ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

**Maxtrade** · 02-12-2021, 11:32 AM

Maybe it's to premature to think the SP won't test previous lows of $5.1-$5.5 range. But seems unlikely would get into the $4's at this point. Would have expected we would have seen that happen already with such a large sell off if that was going to happen. Lower $5's still on the cards though?

**Balance** · 03-12-2021, 05:42 PM

Originally Posted by Maxtrade

Maybe it's to premature to think the SP won't test previous lows of $5.1-$5.5 range. But seems unlikely would get into the $4's at this point. Would have expected we would have seen that happen already with such a large sell off if that was going to happen. Lower $5's still on the cards though?

Slip, sliding towards $5.00 as a first stop.

Increased milk solids payout announced by Fonterra bad news for the likes of ATM - increased costs at a time when their margins are already under pressure from competition.

Ouch!

**Baa_Baa** · 03-12-2021, 06:06 PM

Who buys the A2 liquid milk from the farmers, is it the manufacturer Synlait, or the marketer ATM? Does ATM have a take or pay, or a fixed price contract with Synlait? Where is the risk or exposure held, to fluctuating farm gate milk prices? So many questions. Also noticed that A2 IF is back to premium pricing and has had a very good result in the China online sales recently.

Seemed obvious but I might've misinterpreted it, that the removal from the Index has forced the large volume selling from funds which tends to drive down the Ask to move volume. Conversely everything sold was bought.

Remember XRO when it bombed from $45 to $13 over many agonising months? ATM is a far far better company now than XRO was at the time their SP crashed and bottomed (and still is). Easy to forget, three quarters of a billion $ cash, $1.2 billion revenue, profitable, and runway to growth and markets opening up again post-covid.

Contrary to popular opinion here, I think the current SP weakness in a basing pattern which could continue for some time, is a reasonable risk / reward investment.

**aperitif** · 03-12-2021, 06:16 PM

https://www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.a...21/2021fca1515

Winning in court again…

**aperitif** · 03-12-2021, 06:23 PM

0CFAE6EB-37A8-4384-84EB-146E871ADB13.jpg

UBS note from Nov 30

**aperitif** · 03-12-2021, 07:26 PM

https://www.lawyerly.com.au/a2-milk-...e-uncertainty/

**couta1** · 03-12-2021, 07:56 PM

Originally Posted by aperitif

0CFAE6EB-37A8-4384-84EB-146E871ADB13.jpg

UBS note from Nov 30

Dont trust these players with a toy gun, 4 traders avg target price of $6.93 NZ more realistic if things improve.

**Beagle** · 03-12-2021, 08:28 PM

Originally Posted by couta1

Dont trust these players with a toy gun, 4 traders avg target price of $6.93 NZ more realistic if things improve.

Agree 100%. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...22/financials/
Average of 7 analysts has this at 16 cps earnings next year so even at today's close @ $5.76 that's a very lofty forward PE of 36

**aperitif** · 03-12-2021, 08:58 PM

Originally Posted by Beagle

Agree 100%. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote...22/financials/
Average of 7 analysts has this at 16 cps earnings next year so even at today's close @ $5.76 that's a very lofty forward PE of 36

But take the OCA analysts forecast as gospel. Thought you would be out enjoying freedom