ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[winner69]

With full year npat guidance (implied) between $250m and $320m they've given themselves plenty of wiggle room that another downgrade probably won't be necessary anyway

[Gregnz]

With full year npat guidance (implied) between $250m and $320m they've given themselves plenty of wiggle room that another downgrade probably won't be necessary anyway

Yes agree. I don’t believe they halted trading for 3 days just to fudge some numbers in the hope of Daigou returning before results are delivered. There are a few calculations floating around which imply that it’s pretty difficult not to achieve guidance, time will tell.

[Balance]

With full year npat guidance (implied) between $250m and $320m they've given themselves plenty of wiggle room that another downgrade probably won't be necessary anyway

Consensus forecast is for $277m so that will be the number to watch?

[BlackPeter]

Sorry, I think you misunderstood what I wrote. I didn't say manipulate, I'm fairly certain they will start to increase their holdings if they see long term value and a declining share price. The big holders buying will be enough to mitigate any major fall in share price.

Fair enough. I think however that balance has a good point.

If fair value drops after the next result, it will drop for everybody and the institutions won't have a reason to support anything above that. If you think that fair value is above $10 (or any other particular number), than you must already know the next results - do you?

If ATM however surprises the market in a positive way at next result time (personally i think this is unlikely, but hey - your guess is as good as mine), than obviously SP will go up - no need for institutions to push up price, in that case shorters will happily do the job :

Discl: neither short nor long, but interested observer.

[Balance]

Fair enough. I think however that balance has a good point.

If fair value drops after the next result, it will drop for everybody and the institutions won't have a reason to support anything above that. If you think that fair value is above $10 (or any other particular number), than you must already know the next results - do you?

If ATM however surprises the market in a positive way at next result time (personally i think this is unlikely, but hey - your guess is as good as mine), than obviously SP will go up - no need for institutions to push up price, in that case shorters will happily do the job :

Discl: neither short nor long, but interested observer.

Not sure about happily but there's certainly a truckload of shorts to cover!

[Pegasus2000]

Morgan Stanley seems to keep buying ATM over 5% until 20 Jan 2021


SPH Notice - Morgan Stanley and its Subsidiaries - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange

25/1/2021, 5:10 pmPlease see attached a Substantial Product Holder Notice for Morgan Stanley and its Subsidiaries in The a2 Milk Company Limited ("ATM").

Disclosure of beginning to have substantial holding
Section 276, Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013
To NZX Limited
and
To A2 MILK CO LTD (ATM)
Date this disclosure made: 25 January, 2021
Date on which substantial holding began: 20 January, 2021
Substantial product holder(s) giving disclosure
Full name(s): Morgan Stanley and its Subsidiaries listed in Annexure A
Summary of substantial holding
Class of quoted voting products: Ordinary Shares
Summary for Morgan Stanley and its Subsidiaries listed in Annexure A
For this disclosure,—

(a) total number held in class: 37,173,201
(b) total in class: 742,606,937
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.006%

[Ggcc]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/366676

Another increasing their holding

[winner69]

All these big instos like MS, Mitsi etc etc seem to keep buying and selling and make regular disclosures when they go up and down 1% or when they go over or under 5%

To me it doesn’t really tell me much about what they really think of A2 beyond they own heaps of them ....as such I feel some get hung up on these disclosures and read things into them what aren’t really there.

[Ggcc]

All these big instos like MS, Mitsi etc etc seem to keep buying and selling and make regular disclosures when they go up and down 1% or when they go over or under 5%

To me it doesn’t really tell me much about what they really think of A2 beyond they own heaps of them ....as such I feel some get hung up on these disclosures and read things into them what aren’t really there.

There is a lot of truth in that, as most instos seem to be trading a hell of a lot of these shares, more than holding them.

[bull....]

a lot of the insto's trade there long term holdings all the time. you would never know cause must of it falls under the levels of not having to disclose