ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[HKG2301]

[QUOTE=alokdhir;866879]

I am quite ok with your logic that downside is less and upside is more so risk reward is in your favour. But not the similarity with TESLA happening here soon unless they actually turnaround the downtrend fundamentally ...Tesla had great numbers coming for it ...ATM has down grades coming ....need to change that to upgrades first ...then $ 5 upside in 2-3 days possible .

I'm thinking more of the mammoth shorting situation with TSLA a year or so ago.

Agreed little similarity between the companies: then, TSLA struggled to make a profit, was running out of cash, and had Elon sticking his foot in his mouth every other tweet. Then, Bingo! A short squeeze to end all short squeezes (plus a wealth of true believers) has the company valued more than the seven other biggest auto-makers combined. TSLA still barely makes a profit (I don't know where you get the "great numbers" from) but now has a wealth of cash to buy its way out of trouble.

OK, there were other factors at play at the time (as always): covid stimulus, commission-free trading, bored millennials in lockdown, eg RobinHooders, Space-X, etc, but it was no coincidence that TSLA was hugely shorted - right up to the point when the shorting lid blew off.

So, I agree that there's little similarity between ATM (very profitable, but with a couple of recent guidance adjustments) and the TSLA of 1-2 years ago (had never met its guidance, or even turned a profit), beyond the obvious shorting pressure. And the same possible outcome...

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Eh, but Tsla has Elon Musk and his entire cult, you do not have that with ATM. You're also comparing milk to 'the future of motors', people bought into the 'future' part of it whereas idk how you can compare that with milk

[HKG2301]

TA helps to time your buys (entries) and exits..TA is not perfect but you improve your odds of a successful trade (entry or exit).

So which way is ATM pointing...eh..

Answer:..The non TA share price chart below gives you the answer...
Yes ATM might suddenly find the bottom and rapidly point back upwards give those people entering now a large capital gain, but trading history says the odds are against you..The odds improve when you wait for an upturn...
There are lots of hillarious trading adages around such as:
....Confucius Says: "He who picks bottoms gets stinky fingers".
There is a mental condition when traders/investors fall victim, compelled (emotive behaviour) to buy falling knife stocks.... and there is a idiom:
.....Don't try to catch a falling knife ...and the adage...Confucius Says: "He who catchee falling knife losee fingers".

Classic!

But you said it yourself: "The non TA share price chart".

What you describe is momentum trading (in my book) and does not require Fibonacci, Bollinger Bands, Elliot Wave theory, or the other bric-a-brac of technical analysis.

When trading other markets such as the US, I do take notice of Fib-levels, etc, because I know that many traders do, therefore the algo's do, therefore... It's almost a self-fulfilling prophesy.

I'm not sure TA matters so much in the NZX however. Far fewer shares, lower volumes, limited derivatives, less day-trading.

[HKG2301]

Eh, but Tsla has Elon Musk and his entire cult, you do not have that with ATM. You're also comparing milk to 'the future of motors', people bought into the 'future' part of it whereas idk how you can compare that with milk

You did read my post, right...?

[HKG2301]

One of the few TA notions I do subscribe to is support (and resistance) levels, hence my reference to the $10-ish level...


ATM 3yr chart.jpg

ATM.NZ 3-yr chart

[Hoop]

One of the few TA notions I do subscribe to is support (and resistance) levels, hence my reference to the $10-ish level...

Everyone can do this....Simple drawn Support/Resistance (S&R) lines connect top or bottom price points (need at least 3 touching points). Nowadays with better and more data available it is more suitable to use Candlesticks or OHLC than closing price as used in your chart above, and don't forget, gaps act as very important points on the S&R line as well.

Gaps can be very spooky creatures..they can open up (gap up) and if they close (gap down or gap filled) they will fill at a similar price (see my chart on the previous page).

Historically ATM has shown to be a TA friendly Stock...so, yes, S&R lines work well (reliable)

That $10ish support is very fuzzy so I suspect it may act as an approximate support area if the shareprice falls that far.

[Mr Slothbear]

Eh, but Tsla has Elon Musk and his entire cult, you do not have that with ATM. You're also comparing milk to 'the future of motors', people bought into the 'future' part of it whereas idk how you can compare that with milk

A2 is the future of milk and with higher margins than making cars. Both first movers shaking up respective industries

[BlackPeter]

A2 is the future of milk and with higher margins than making cars. Both first movers shaking up respective industries

You make that sound like the gospel. Did investing just turn into a religion?

Don't forget though, that A2 used to be as well the past of milk ... and not sure where your reference of higher margins for A2 milk than from making cars comes from. Many car makers (I do hold some enjoy quite healthy margins ...

Just a hint ... the only high margin area for A2 milk is in infant formula ... and most of the big dollars come from one single market.

[alokdhir]

Milk powder from NZ in making Ice Cream in China found to be contaminated with Virus ...Samples tested positive for Covid !!

Sure its no big deal but very bad publicity for NZ dairy and its clean , green and 100 % pure image for what many Chinese ready to pay hefty premium

ATM will suffer because of this or already suffering with continuous erosion of NZ dairy products reputation ...Chinese premium market is very sentiment based as there is not other logic to pay hefty premium for similar products ...so reputation of NZ dairy and its purity should be maintained at all costs for NZ dairy companies to keep on cashing on it

[winner69]

Milk powder from NZ in making Ice Cream in China found to be contaminated with Virus ...Samples tested positive for Covid !!

Sure its no big deal but very bad publicity for NZ dairy and its clean , green and 100 % pure image for what many Chinese ready to pay hefty premium

ATM will suffer because of this or already suffering with continuous erosion of NZ dairy products reputation ...Chinese premium market is very sentiment based as there is not other logic to pay hefty premium for similar products ...so reputation of NZ dairy and its purity should be maintained at all costs for NZ dairy companies to keep on cashing on it

Has that happened?