ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Leftfield]

It’s depend when you bought the share, image the ppl who bought last year, they all underwater now. and maybe different tide this time.

Of course, but don't forget that even the current long term holders were underwater at times. But they held.... and are now much wealthier.

Those that are underwater now, just have to be patient. This company will continue to outperform NZX 50 and the SP will rise above $20. Just a question of time.

JMHO - and yes I'm biased so take responsibility for your own decisions.

[RupertBear]

I have always found this forum to be insightful and a source of great information. Just like real life you have to pick and choose what is valuable and what is not. Everyone should be allowed an opinion (although there have been some perhaps who could have had less of one) and everyone has different situations.




I have been in the Coutts camp to a degree. I've admitted before that I have too much of a soft spot for my white gold. However if you were in the top 100 holders, which I very fortunately am, and had ridden A2 since buying your entire holding at 50c with a top up at 65c, you may view things in a different way. I sold 20,000 at around $2.50 to get a chunk of my original stake back, so my holding now averages far less than 50c per share. A2 grew from maybe 20% to over 90% of my portfolio over 5 years.

Did this give me the odd heart palpitation? Yes. Did I know I was in risky territory? Yes. But despite knowing that 'diversification' was the 'sound' strategy, I also read some wise words about 'letting your winners run'. If I had listened to the 'experts' I would not have a holding that will help me retire, or buy the biggest and most expensive house(s) I could have ever dreamed of.

I have 'lost' enough over the last two months that could buy a nice house anywhere except Auckland, but still have a holding that is up almost 2500% and will allow me to retire well or do whatever I want to. Am I annoyed right now? Yes. Should I have sold at $20 when her indoors suggested? Probably. Am I ruthless enough? No. Is hindsight wonderful? Yes.
I have been invested for the long term and whilst it has been tempting to cash out at times, I decided I knew of nothing else that would give me the return I was getting. I feel I've been luckier than I could ever dreamed of (I only ever dreamed of a 2-3 bagger) and it has been too hard to cut the tie. But I will when I want or need to!

A2 has always had risk. China has and always will be of some concern. But sometimes the greatest risks also deliver the greatest benefits and A2 is the epitome of that. Will our woke government 's latest gaffe be enough for China to pick on A2? Unlikely. Will China mandate breast feeding and kill baby formula? Hardly! Will Daigou's not come back in mass for another 12 months? Yep may happen.

The main reason for the latest large drop is that for the first time ever A2 delivered news that was not entirely positive. I've been through many swings of a $1-$2 gain or drop over a day or two on no news and good news. This is the largest for sure but long term they're still making a fortune and it is hard to argue this will not continue.

Yes my post numbers are not high - which will obviously annoy some. That is partly because a crash years ago lost all of my previous posts and I started from scratch again. It still wouldn't be a high number anyway though, because differently from real life, I only make a comment when I think I can add something. I don't post vexatiously just to get my post numbers up to look experienced. There are far more knowledgeable posters here than I, despite A2 being the stock I do know most about. I am happy to listen to all (well most anyway) and value them. It does seem that many posters here are more traders than investors, as a small jump or drop seems to mean an immediate buy or sell is justified. I could never have traded this stock and be in the position I am now.

Each to his own, but I thought compelled to share my story because of the antagonism going on lately. Coutts may be in a similar position and in my opinion, therefore justified in his view, even if he may have appeared a little emotional over it at times. Many of the posters I respect most (B, S, L) have noted judgement on Coutts, albeit more constructively, but I feel some experts here just want to get their numbers up and love the thrill of keyboard warrior-ing!

But for me, those who bag him just may have have different views if you were in a similar position. I'm happy to call it lucky......

A fabulous post TED2, thanks for sharing you thoughts and congrats on your success with ATM. Well done

[macduffy]

Yes, a great post TED2. My nomination for Post of the Year!

[causecelebre]

This stock works like clock work. Gaps up at open and gradually sells off over the day

[kiora]

This stock works like clock work. Gaps up at open and gradually sells off over the day

So is that caused by someone accumulating or selling down?
It is the same with IFT

In both stocks volume vs average volume is relatively low

[Motley Crew]

I have always found this forum to be insightful and a source of great information. Just like real life you have to pick and choose what is valuable and what is not. Everyone should be allowed an opinion (although there have been some perhaps who could have had less of one) and everyone has different situations.


I have been in the Coutts camp to a degree. I've admitted before that I have too much of a soft spot for my white gold. However if you were in the top 100 holders, which I very fortunately am, and had ridden A2 since buying your entire holding at 50c with a top up at 65c, you may view things in a different way. I sold 20,000 at around $2.50 to get a chunk of my original stake back, so my holding now averages far less than 50c per share. A2 grew from maybe 20% to over 90% of my portfolio over 5 years.

Did this give me the odd heart palpitation? Yes. Did I know I was in risky territory? Yes. But despite knowing that 'diversification' was the 'sound' strategy, I also read some wise words about 'letting your winners run'. If I had listened to the 'experts' I would not have a holding that will help me retire, or buy the biggest and most expensive house(s) I could have ever dreamed of.

I have 'lost' enough over the last two months that could buy a nice house anywhere except Auckland, but still have a holding that is up almost 2500% and will allow me to retire well or do whatever I want to. Am I annoyed right now? Yes. Should I have sold at $20 when her indoors suggested? Probably. Am I ruthless enough? No. Is hindsight wonderful? Yes.
I have been invested for the long term and whilst it has been tempting to cash out at times, I decided I knew of nothing else that would give me the return I was getting. I feel I've been luckier than I could ever dreamed of (I only ever dreamed of a 2-3 bagger) and it has been too hard to cut the tie. But I will when I want or need to!

A2 has always had risk. China has and always will be of some concern. But sometimes the greatest risks also deliver the greatest benefits and A2 is the epitome of that. Will our woke government 's latest gaffe be enough for China to pick on A2? Unlikely. Will China mandate breast feeding and kill baby formula? Hardly! Will Daigou's not come back in mass for another 12 months? Yep may happen.

The main reason for the latest large drop is that for the first time ever A2 delivered news that was not entirely positive. I've been through many swings of a $1-$2 gain or drop over a day or two on no news and good news. This is the largest for sure but long term they're still making a fortune and it is hard to argue this will not continue.

Yes my post numbers are not high - which will obviously annoy some. That is partly because a crash years ago lost all of my previous posts and I started from scratch again. It still wouldn't be a high number anyway though, because differently from real life, I only make a comment when I think I can add something. I don't post vexatiously just to get my post numbers up to look experienced. There are far more knowledgeable posters here than I, despite A2 being the stock I do know most about. I am happy to listen to all (well most anyway) and value them. It does seem that many posters here are more traders than investors, as a small jump or drop seems to mean an immediate buy or sell is justified. I could never have traded this stock and be in the position I am now.

Each to his own, but I thought compelled to share my story because of the antagonism going on lately. Coutts may be in a similar position and in my opinion, therefore justified in his view, even if he may have appeared a little emotional over it at times. Many of the posters I respect most (B, S, L) have noted judgement on Coutts, albeit more constructively, but I feel some experts here just want to get their numbers up and love the thrill of keyboard warrior-ing!

But for me, those who bag him just may have have different views if you were in a similar position. I'm happy to call it lucky......

Great post Ted2. And yes, you don't need to have many thousands of posts to get your very good message across.

I am in the same very fortunate position as you, only my winner was XRO, which I bought for an average of 92c in 2007 and still hold a sizeable $$ holding in to this day in spite of many share price fluctuations, heart palpitations, pressure from 'her indoors' (a Chartered Accountant no less) to sell, and every other emotion you listed. And my new, soon to be built house is going to be fabulous ! Your point about letting winners run is spot on, although I did need some reassuring words in a phone call to Rod Drury to hang in there when the SP dropped from $45 to $12 a few years ago when XRO was over 90% of my portfolio. I made the situation worse by even buying more at about A$22 on the way back up ! Eventually the over-weighting got too high and I sold a few off to diversify and reap a little dividend income. All those stocks except CVT are in the black right now, including sizeable holdings in PPH and HLG. So if you believe in a stock, let it run. As a financial accountant type person XRO (to me) was a no-brainer. I believe ATM is also a no-brainer and liken this dip to the occasional one experienced by XRO over recent years - heck - they even went to $135 and down to $126 in a day this week - but today back to $134. It's a roller-coaster. Each to their own, and do what you have to do. If you can tolerate the lumpy bits then go for it and you may be handsomely rewarded.

So I reiterate the point I have made recently that it is not for posters to criticise others investing strategies. If I had listened to them over the last 13 years I would have sold out of XRO at $5 and be kicking myself black and blue every living day since. Do what YOU believe in and don't be swayed by others. Ultimately you only have yourself to answer to.

I am definitely one in the investor camp. The short term trading and day trading does not interest me. It consumes a lot of time and analysis, self flagellation and questioning when things go awry. The XRO experience has taught me that there is more than one way to skin a cat (apologies to fellow cat lovers out there for the analogy), and one's time can be spent profitably elsewhere while your winner is running on without needing to be watched 24/7

I have found it incredibly valuable reading and following the constructive and positive posts on this forum. Some of the analytical stuff is beyond me but a good read anyway for a balanced viewpoint. The emotions of contributors are just as important, because as much as the head screams "SELL", the heart and emotional attachment is always there countering with "WELL MAYBE NOT - YET". Just one of those Maybe Not Yet's has to be a big winner and it can completely outweigh all the "Sell Too Early's". I'm a firm believer that there is at least one multi-bagger out there for everyone, whether you find it by good luck or design is irrelevant.

Keep up the good work Ted, your contribution was perfectly balanced and demonstrated most of what all of us go through in our stock selections and 'maintenance' decisions

[RupertBear]

Great post Ted2. And yes, you don't need to have many thousands of posts to get your very good message across.

I am in the same very fortunate position as you, only my winner was XRO, which I bought for an average of 92c in 2007 and still hold a sizeable $$ holding in to this day in spite of many share price fluctuations, heart palpitations, pressure from 'her indoors' (a Chartered Accountant no less) to sell, and every other emotion you listed. And my new, soon to be built house is going to be fabulous ! Your point about letting winners run is spot on, although I did need some reassuring words in a phone call to Rod Drury to hang in there when the SP dropped from $45 to $12 a few years ago when XRO was over 90% of my portfolio. I made the situation worse by even buying more at about A$22 on the way back up ! Eventually the over-weighting got too high and I sold a few off to diversify and reap a little dividend income. All those stocks except CVT are in the black right now, including sizeable holdings in PPH and HLG. So if you believe in a stock, let it run. As a financial accountant type person XRO (to me) was a no-brainer. I believe ATM is also a no-brainer and liken this dip to the occasional one experienced by XRO over recent years - heck - they even went to $135 and down to $126 in a day this week - but today back to $134. It's a roller-coaster. Each to their own, and do what you have to do. If you can tolerate the lumpy bits then go for it and you may be handsomely rewarded.

So I reiterate the point I have made recently that it is not for posters to criticise others investing strategies. If I had listened to them over the last 13 years I would have sold out of XRO at $5 and be kicking myself black and blue every living day since. Do what YOU believe in and don't be swayed by others. Ultimately you only have yourself to answer to.

I am definitely one in the investor camp. The short term trading and day trading does not interest me. It consumes a lot of time and analysis, self flagellation and questioning when things go awry. The XRO experience has taught me that there is more than one way to skin a cat (apologies to fellow cat lovers out there for the analogy), and one's time can be spent profitably elsewhere while your winner is running on without needing to be watched 24/7

I have found it incredibly valuable reading and following the constructive and positive posts on this forum. Some of the analytical stuff is beyond me but a good read anyway for a balanced viewpoint. The emotions of contributors are just as important, because as much as the head screams "SELL", the heart and emotional attachment is always there countering with "WELL MAYBE NOT - YET". Just one of those Maybe Not Yet's has to be a big winner and it can completely outweigh all the "Sell Too Early's". I'm a firm believer that there is at least one multi-bagger out there for everyone, whether you find it by good luck or design is irrelevant.

Keep up the good work Ted, your contribution was perfectly balanced and demonstrated most of what all of us go through in our stock selections and 'maintenance' decisions

Good post Motley Crew and well done on your success with XRO

[xp04]

Apparently I am not allowed to have an opinion on this...So I get another negative rep from the Beagle

Apparently, you are not the only one. l follow this forum for quite some time, but have no desire to be involved mainly because of people like Beagle. I'm quite active on HC though

[LEMON]

Come on guys, move on!

[alokdhir]

Come on guys, move on!

U see his post in KFL thread about ATM people then U will know what xp is saying is how true !!