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  1. #19521
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    will we see competition in the future from oat based milk. NZ starting to try the swedish technology food path. And will they take this public at some stage.

  2. #19522
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waltzingironmansinlgescul View Post
    will we see competition in the future from oat based milk. NZ starting to try the swedish technology food path. And will they take this public at some stage.
    Oat water you mean;
    milk

    /mɪlk/
    lter definitions by topic



    See definitions in:
    ll





    • an opaque white fluid rich in fat and protein, secreted by female mammals for the nourishment of their young.
      [COLOR=#878787 !important]"a healthy mother will produce enough milk for her baby"[/COLOR]


    [/COLOR]
    Last edited by Ruby; 14-01-2021 at 12:33 PM. Reason: Poor layout

  3. #19523
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    Quote Originally Posted by invest View Post
    There's a lot of misconception about how the daigou trade works, and therefore the impact on ATM.
    Daigous were already experiencing disruption pre-covid as platforms became more dominant, and increasingly focused on disintermediation to capture margin.
    COVID accelerated the demise of daigous, with lockdowns resulting in supply chain disruption.

    Alibaba-Tmall/Taobao, JD, VIP, Red and numerous other e-commerce platforms have been working hard to bridge brand owners directly with consumers. Brand owners are increasingly operating flagship stores eg https://a2nutrition.world.tmall.com/
    Whereas previously daigous would purchase product and sell on platforms like Taobao (the NZ equivalent is Trademe).
    In the short term, there's a lot of disruption as Chinese consumers move away from the daigous/stores they have previously bought from to buying direct from brand owner or platforms. Unlike Trademe, Alibaba also buys stock direct from brand owners to resell on their own platforms.
    Chinese consumers tend to trust the store they have always bought from, especially for highly sensitive items. Therefore the short term disruption is severe.
    In the long term, ATM should be able to extract higher margins by minimising margin for middlemen, which is traditionally very high in China. ATM won't get the full benefit of disintermediation as platforms will have stronger bargaining power.
    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Thank you both for posting - very useful perspectives.

  4. #19524
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    1000 international students granted exemption to return to New Zealand
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/300204969/1000-international-students-granted-exemption-to-return-to-new-zealand

  5. #19525
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    yes oat milk has a lot of water and not the range of nutrients as plain milk and soy.

    But there is still a market for these product and we simply said is it competition. I dont expect sport trainers to be recommending oat over soy.

  6. #19526
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waltzingironmansinlgescul View Post
    yes oat milk has a lot of water and not the range of nutrients as plain milk and soy.

    But there is still a market for these product and we simply said is it competition. I dont expect sport trainers to be recommending oat over soy.
    It should be called : JUICE not MILK .

  7. #19527
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    Found this A2 update and analysis by John Ricci on Hot Copper where it was highly rated.

    Useful info on the new A2 CEO David Bortolucci plus short term v longer term investment strategy update. Some useful analysis tools and links as well.

  8. #19528
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    Like the juice!

    well you may be right!

    apparently oat is a soluble fibre.

    "Oat Avena genes crop and wheat is a Triticum genus crop"
    Last edited by Waltzingironmansinlgescul; 14-01-2021 at 01:50 PM.

  9. #19529
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    Actually, on the subject of squeezed oat residual and almond juice with 98% added water..........

    I've often wondered that when you go for a coffee, you can often get all sorts of "milk" to go with your FW/Cappy - ie soy, oat, almond, coconut, hemp, rice etc etc. Not that I've ever deviated!

    Never heard of anyone in NZ offering A2 as an option......?? Been in cafes in Australia years ago, when all they had was A2.

    Maybe shareholders should start asking? I know fresh in NZ isn't their main game, but every little helps....

  10. #19530
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Actually, on the subject of squeezed oat residual and almond juice with 98% added water..........

    I've often wondered that when you go for a coffee, you can often get all sorts of "milk" to go with your FW/Cappy - ie soy, oat, almond, coconut, hemp, rice etc etc. Not that I've ever deviated!

    Never heard of anyone in NZ offering A2 as an option......?? Been in cafes in Australia years ago, when all they had was A2.

    Maybe shareholders should start asking? I know fresh in NZ isn't their main game, but every little helps....
    Another example of a future growth opportunity. With this business I like the fact that they have previously grown so significantly with so many untapped opportunities.
    I personally drink A2 as it agrees with me, would love if we could get all the various options they have available now in the USA, like chocolate A2 etc. Perhaps thats their plan for Mataura when they said they would use the facility to expand their product lines in addition to producing IF.

  11. #19531
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    Long time reader first time poster. Just want to chime in on a2 and the recent downgrades.

    The a2 claims the crushing blow to the daigou is whatís causing these substantial downgrades in earnings guidance. The daigou is a sales channel that has been driven heavily by students and visitors from China.

    We all know students and tourists havenít been able to travel here since the border closures and the earnings guidance had been adjusted according with optimism in the 2H21 will be higher than the 1H21ís $670 million expectation. They are expecting FY21 to be between $1.4bn to $1.55bn.

    There is a very very good chance a2 will not meet this guidance given the following:

    -Both NZ and AUS have suspended visa processing on visitorís visas and student visas of offshore applicants since lockdown.

    -Visa processing for offshore applicants will unlikely resume until we know when the borders can reopen. This is likely months away, considering it largely depends on vaccine rollout and a sufficient % of the population having received the vaccine. Chances are we will slowly open up to low risk countries first like AUS, Singapore and the islands as more and more of the population is vaccinated.

    -Considering we are months away from opening our borders again most Chinese students will not be able to enroll semester one courses AND have their visas processed to allow them to travel here. If Chinese students are returning to AUS/NZ this year, it will be for semester 2 in July, which, you guessed it, is outside of FY21.

    -As for tourists, this will also take time to ramp up even after the border opens. Ask yourself, how long does it take to plan an overseas trip under normal conditions previously? At least a few months for most people. Throw into the mix, the limited flights going these days due to airlines reducing the flights they are running. Also, remember, marketing for AUS/NZ as a travel destination has been switched off for almost a year. Itís not likely weíll be seeing any substantial tourist numbers for 2H21.

    -If a2 is to meet its FY21 guidance given in December, the 2H21 improvement over 1H21 cannot be from daigou. Daigou will continue to contract further as more time passes in this border closure environment. Remember there are a lot of Chinese students who completed their study at the end of 2020 who have gone home. Other temporary visa holders have had their visas expire and left with no means to replenish these numbers.

    Unless a2 achieves some decent growth in areas outside of daigou, I think they will struggle to exceed or even match their 1H21 sales. In conclusion, i think the likelihood of a 3rd downgrade is very likely.

    disclosure:
    sold off position at $12.
    works in immigration space.

  12. #19532
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    How low can you go you bad thing. A2 is my worst stock of the last year. Morningstar val. is looking better every day at $16.30.

  13. #19533
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    Quote Originally Posted by see weed View Post
    How low can you go you bad thing. A2 is my worst stock of the last year. Morningstar val. is looking better every day at $16.30.
    We are in danger area now ...if it breaks below AUD 10 then we can expect below NZD 10 in this down turn .

    ATM SP has behaved exactly like it did at first downgrade ...big 20% down then bounce till 16.30 followed by slow grind to 14 ...now big 20% down to 11 ...bounced to 12.40 and now slow grind to 9.80-10 levels I expect .

  14. #19534
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    "It's okay, just wait for 11.11, it'll moon!"

  15. #19535
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    Quote Originally Posted by alokdhir View Post
    We are in danger area now ...if it breaks below AUD 10 then we can expect below NZD 10 in this down turn.

    ATM SP has behaved exactly like it did at first downgrade ...big 20% down then bounce till 16.30 followed by slow grind to 14 ...now big 20% down to 11 ...bounced to 12.40 and now slow grind to 9.80-10 levels I expect .
    I'm not a 'believer' in TA, not to that extent anyway, so I'm buying in at these levels. Quite happy to do so on fundamentals.

    There is obvious short pressure and - dare I say it - price manipulation going on, but I'm happy to DCA and add to my long term ATM position.

    I'm reasonably confident that the SP will be back in the region of $15.50 this year, an upside of 40%, so I'm content to weather a possible brief downside to $10.

    And I won't be surprised to see a short squeeze being triggered at some stage (a la TSLA) in which case, watch out!

  16. #19536
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    Quote Originally Posted by alokdhir View Post
    We are in danger area now ...if it breaks below AUD 10 then we can expect below NZD 10 in this down turn .

    ATM SP has behaved exactly like it did at first downgrade ...big 20% down then bounce till 16.30 followed by slow grind to 14 ...now big 20% down to 11 ...bounced to 12.40 and now slow grind to 9.80-10 levels I expect .
    Was going to buy some more HLG, but pressed the wrong keys and bought more ATM. Just couldn't help it, at $10.96, but only half order went through. This stock moves very fast, when checking depth 4 seconds later it was back to $11.

  17. #19537
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    Quote Originally Posted by Akane View Post
    "It's okay, just wait for 11.11, it'll moon!"
    Why will it moon?

  18. #19538
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    Quote Originally Posted by Akane View Post
    "It's okay, just wait for 11.11, it'll moon!"
    But its 11.03 now XD

  19. #19539
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    [QUOTE=HKG2301;866870]I'm not a 'believer' in TA, not to that extent anyway, so I'm buying in at these levels. Quite happy to do so on fundamentals.

    There is obvious short pressure and - dare I say it - price manipulation going on, but I'm happy to DCA and add to my long term ATM position.

    I'm reasonably confident that the SP will be back in the region of $15.50 this year, an upside of 40%, so I'm content to weather a possible brief downside to $10.

    I am quite ok with your logic that downside is less and upside is more so risk reward is in your favour .

    But not the similarity with TESLA happening here soon unless they actually turnaround the downtrend fundamentally ...Tesla had great numbers coming for it ...ATM has down grades coming ....need to change that to upgrades first ...then $ 5 upside in 2-3 days possible .

  20. #19540
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    Quote Originally Posted by HKG2301 View Post
    I'm not a 'believer' in TA, not to that extent anyway, so I'm buying in at these levels. Quite happy to do so on fundamentals.

    There is obvious short pressure and - dare I say it - price manipulation going on, but I'm happy to DCA and add to my long term ATM position.

    I'm reasonably confident that the SP will be back in the region of $15.50 this year, an upside of 40%, so I'm content to weather a possible brief downside to $10.

    And I won't be surprised to see a short squeeze being triggered at some stage (a la TSLA) in which case, watch out!
    TA helps to time your buys (entries) and exits..TA is not perfect but you improve your odds of a successful trade (entry or exit).
    We use to have a very quiet ragged type of individual (a work associate) sit in with our friends down at the Pub, we always talked about the sharemarket as nearly everyone did, except him...He never discussed any company looked completely lost when we talked company fundamentals...He wasn't a very bright individual but we tolerated his presence... We found out one night with a few beers that this smelly unkempt individuals portfolio was nearly a $million.. a lot of money back in the mid 1980's..We (in disbelief) asked him how he traded and he replied in very simple terms that he only bought shares that pointed upwards and when they started to point downwards he sold them.

    So which way is ATM pointing...eh..

    Answer:..The non TA share price chart below gives you the answer...
    Yes ATM might suddenly find the bottom and rapidly point back upwards give those people entering now a large capital gain, but trading history says the odds are against you..The odds improve when you wait for an upturn...
    There are lots of hillarious trading adages around such as:
    ....Confucius Says: "He who picks bottoms gets stinky fingers".
    There is a mental condition when traders/investors fall victim, compelled (emotive behaviour) to buy falling knife stocks.... and there is a idiom:
    .....Don't try to catch a falling knife ..Definition of falling knife (Investopedia)
    and the adage...Confucius Says: "He who catchee falling knife losee fingers".


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