ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[tomm]

It was certainly something people did around April / May last year but as we all know IF has a limited shelf life and I'm not sure many people would buy a whole year ahead.

One further issue presents, in regard to the pantry stocking thing, mothers trust in availability of supply. If mothers can't trust that they can get continuity of supply of their chosen brand, then trust is broken and they will choose another brand that their baby is doing well with, that they can trust has continuity of supply. Once trust in continuity of supply is broken, and a consumer has chosen another brand they can trust and their baby is doing well on, I suggest that the vast majority of mothers will stick with the brand they can trust that they can get at a reasonable price.

I think the whole extra freight cost issue and daigou problems will have far reaching consequences down the track and ATM may find rebuilding their sales growth much harder than they think.

You are underestimate the Chinese ways of doing business and how they lives.

[tomm]

I have been very open about me keeping an eye on ATM as a turnaround story.

Can’t see the turnaround yet and imo, sp has a long way to fall before it represents value.

Meanwhile, whatever I read or glean information from, I post (both negative & positive) in the interest of keeping all informed.

You have a problem with that?

PS. Have a look at FBU in recent years - plenty of negative points around but nobody complained, and the reward of investing in a turnaround stock is there for all to see.

Once it is an uptrend confirmed , you won't have a single chance to buy this stock at this price, it will jump 3-4 dollars overnight. Stock trading is a risk , luck and reward to those who do well.

[Ruby]

Beagle,whats your view on Comvita as they operate in a similar space and they note a turn around?
"...Unique business model shows encouraging signs
Comvita has a unique ‘End to End’ business model with around 350 people employed in markets outside of New Zealand to ensure that Comvita is better connected to customers and consumers in market, and is able to adapt at speed to meet local market changes and needs. A particular strength of this model has been evidenced in Mainland China and Asia where Comvita has been able to offset the impact of the challenges in the Daigou market in Australia and New Zealand. This model also enables the business to continue to perform strongly even with travel and tourism being so restricted...."

It was certainly something people did around April / May last year but as we all know IF has a limited shelf life and I'm not sure many people would buy a whole year ahead.

One further issue presents, in regard to the pantry stocking thing, mothers trust in availability of supply. If mothers can't trust that they can get continuity of supply of their chosen brand, then trust is broken and they will choose another brand that their baby is doing well with, that they can trust has continuity of supply. Once trust in continuity of supply is broken, and a consumer has chosen another brand they can trust and their baby is doing well on, I suggest that the vast majority of mothers will stick with the brand they can trust that they can get at a reasonable price.

I think the whole extra freight cost issue and daigou problems will have far reaching consequences down the track and ATM may find rebuilding their sales growth much harder than they think.

[Balance]

Once it is an uptrend confirmed , you won't have a single chance to buy this stock at this price, it will jump 3-4 dollars overnight. Stock trading is a risk , luck and reward to those who do well.

Have a look at turnaround stocks over the years like FBU, DIL, SKO, HGH, PEB, XRO and yes, ATM a few years ago.

Plenty of opportunities as a turnaround happens to get into a stock - plenty.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Once it is an uptrend confirmed , you won't have a single chance to buy this stock at this price, it will jump 3-4 dollars overnight. Stock trading is a risk , luck and reward to those who do well.

You have absolutely no clue what you're talking about and do not understand risk management. Instead of refusing to look past your nose due to emotional attachment to ATM created from loss, how about you start actively considering the advice of other people on this forum? There are posters here who are some of the most talented retail investors/traders around with decades of experience.

Imagine if you'd pulled your money from ATM when the writing was on the wall and put it into something with tailwinds e.g. HLG, OCA, HGH, BGP (to name a few).

[Beagle]

Beagle,whats your view on Comvita as they operate in a similar space and they note a turn around?
"...[FONT="]Unique business model shows encouraging signs[/FONT]
Comvita has a unique ‘End to End’ business model with around 350 people employed in markets outside of New Zealand to ensure that Comvita is better connected to customers and consumers in market, and is able to adapt at speed to meet local market changes and needs. A particular strength of this model has been evidenced in Mainland China and Asia where Comvita has been able to offset the impact of the challenges in the Daigou market in Australia and New Zealand. This model also enables the business to continue to perform strongly even with travel and tourism being so restricted...."

I don't follow them anymore as their results over the years have been profoundly shocking. They always "talk" a big game...but talk is cheap.

[alokdhir]

Maybe the mothers had plenty stored away in the pantry .....and thought they better use that up fast

Wasn’t pantry stocking a term the industry used a while ago.

Who stocks edible products for almost a year buddy ?? Lol

[Joshuatree]

Heard of cans lol

[Balance]

Who stocks edible products for almost a year buddy ?? Lol

And an expensive one at that!

Can understand some parents stocking up in the beginning of the pandemic but by October 2020, it was so clear that stock was very freely available and ATM was selling stock produced in Jan 2020!

[alokdhir]

Many here are just arguing for the sake of argument ...writing was on the wall after AGM talk and it turned out be more bad for ATM then even the most excuses they included in their AGM 's " All OK " talk ....Any layman could conclude after the long list of excuses or pre conditions they added to the requirements for that " All Ok " talk that its pretty bad but they not letting us know as yet

Finally they had to let us know as cant hide the numbers ...they did so till the last minute on the clock ...18th Dec !!!

Now even that forecasts for FY 21 has been blown away in just 2 months ....So much for their 2 day Halt to crunch the numbers correctly

Zero faith in management and its investor apathy

Turn around depends on luck more then anything ...lets hope the tide rises soon ...so it may make ATM ship also rise ..