ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Ggcc]

Last time I checked this was an open forum. Who gave you the authority to attempt to bully others away from using it?

Anybody is welcome to contribute their views on stocks - and it is not up to self appointed watchdogs to control the flow of information in order to ensure a company is up- (or down-) ramped.

I certainly want to see all views on the companies which interest me. In case you do have a constructive arguments - please provide them, but stop to bully others for sharing their views, just because they don't fit into your picture.

Play the ball, not the player.

I agree. This is an open forum for all people positive or negative. I hold some, but had to sell some to buy a house. I do hold this stock, but do appreciate Balances views.

[Balance]

So, where are the skeletons? What was so shocking and new in the report that was not known before?

stock situation & sales was known after December's update - nothing new
Sales not being achieved - which one? HY is above last guidance and below last year as was stated before - nothing new
Getting rid of stock - they were opened on this issue as well - nothing new
Too easy to blame it on Covid & Daigou - they did it since September - nothing new
As Craig’s note alerted to - ATM has lost momentum vs it’s competitors - Craig's opinion is nothing more than Craig's opinion.
And all that while executives and directors were feasting on share options - they were doing so since forever - nothing new
Guidance adjusted to lower end is hardly a skeleton.

So were are the promised skeletons by new CEO? If anything he was sitting quietly all QA session as he was not there.
and where is China's ban on infant formula from which you also promised?

My post was 27 Feb, referring to your post of 11 Jan 2021,

So wait for the CEO to put his feet under the table - fourth downgrade is on its way.

[777]

I agree. This is an open forum for all people positive or negative. I hold some, but had to sell some to buy a house. I do hold this stock, but do appreciate Balances views.

You must really like them. They are all the same.

[Balance]

You must really like them. They are all the same.

Yes, they are all the same and so right about ATM so easy to like, right?

[Beagle]

KFL's latest update has them having just fallen out of their top 5 holdings https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/368414, whereas a few days earlier before the major haircut ATM took last week they were in the top 5 at 7%.

In August 2020 when ATM was at its peak of $21.74 their holding was 14%. It looks to me like ostensibly all of the percentage reduction is related to the drop by more than half of ATM's share price since then and therefore looks like many people, (perhaps myself included at some stage), have given Kingfish more credit than they deserve. I know at one point they went on record (think it was December), as saying they had reduced but it doesn't look like on a net basis since August 2020, they let very many go. Hardly any by the looks of it.

[winner69]

KFL's latest update has them having just fallen out of their top 5 holdings https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/368414, whereas a few days earlier before the major haircut ATM took last week they were in the top 5 at 7%.

In August 2020 when ATM was at its peak of $21.74 their holding was 14%. It looks to me like ostensibly all of the percentage reduction is related to the drop by more than half of ATM's share price since then and therefore looks like many people, (perhaps myself included at some stage), have given Kingfish more credit than they deserve. I know at one point they went on record (think it was December), as saying they had reduced but it doesn't look like on a net basis since August 2020, they let very many go. Hardly any by the looks of it.

Tracking them weekly and within the limits of roundings (like 10% could be between 9.51% and 10.49%) I reckon KFL

- were accumulating April /Nov (A2 share price $20/$14
- Sold about 1 million early December $14/$11
- held through to mid Feb
- Sold some last few weeks - maybe 300k/400k of shares

At November they had over $60m in A2 - now its just over $30m

Also depending on roundings used there is a hint they might have bought a few late last week

That's how I see it anyway

[Rawz]

Isn’t it interesting that the guru’s at fisher funds can get it wrong with one of their main holdings dropping 50%, even with all their resources for research and access to management.

Last time I remember them getting it wrong with a large holding was Pumpkin Patch, believe at one stage it was 10%+ of portfolio.

With pumpkin patch they exited pretty quickly. Reported they didn’t meet their STEEPP philosophy and the rest is history (with Pumpkin Patch going bust).

Looks like with ATM they are not selling and as Winner says may even buying a little more. Kingfish invest for the long term and a 1 year blip wouldn’t phase them. Big tick of approval for ATMs future from Fisher funds? And yes they are still guru’s.

[Beagle]

Tracking them weekly and within the limits of roundings (like 10% could be between 9.51% and 10.49%) I reckon KFL

- were accumulating April /Nov (A2 share price $20/$14
- Sold about 1 million early December $14/$11
- held through to mid Feb
- Sold some last few weeks - maybe 300k/400k of shares

At November they had over $60m in A2 - now its just over $30m

Also depending on roundings used there is a hint they might have bought a few late last week

That's how I see it anyway

Looks about right. Going off vague memory they did mention just after the result last year that they had bought some more and then they sold some late in 2020 on the basis that the daigou recovery hadn't met expectations. That was just before management announced the second big downgrade so clearly they got that info as a result of a company visit.

What I find especially disturbing about this one is that its now clear December sales were extremely weak (hence the huge second downgrade in December) and if Craigs are being reported correctly as saying they've been informed IF sales are down 70% in January as a result of their company visit sometime in February, (this information is not really in the market per se) then when the company says the third downgraded forecast is predicated upon a significant rebound in Q4 sales compared to Q3, (or words to that effect) its clear they are forecasting a really significant rebound in Q4 sales so its clear there is very real risk around the size of that rebound, if any, and management appear to still be taking a very, very optimistic view of their near term prospects. Given their recent inability to forecast anything, (losing credibility at very serious speed), one has to wonder what credibility, if any, one should ascribe to their revised forecast ?

As for Kingfish's skills...well, on average they have beaten the market by a few percent per annum after fees over the last few years so they deserve some credit for that.

[Beagle]

Website playing up again...double post.

[Balance]

https://www.fool.com.au/2021/03/01/i...m-share-price/

Bell Porter's view:

"Bell Potter updated its A2 Milk share price target on 25 February to $8.65, which represents a downside of 3% to its share price at the time of writing.

Into this share price target, the broker incorporated A2’s holding of Synlait Milk Ltd (ASX: SM1), a value for the expected upside in China based on projected stockists and sell-through rates, and a value for the US opportunity.

The broker commented that “A2 Milk is by no means cheap, neither is the sector and to a degree the material under performance of A2 Milk reflects this.”