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  1. #22921
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyTheHorse View Post
    Played out really nice on the technicals today. I'll run through how I traded this both long and short from a day traders perspective. Then I'll run through what I'm looking at tomorrow.

    The gap up open on the ASX open yesterday on large sustained volume (this is critical). If you missed the gap up open, then the first 5min consolidation was the spot for entry around 12EMA (note low volume on pullback). Stoploss would go below the 5min pullback for below the low of day.

    The sell level is a loss of the 5 min uptrend (closing price) or a break below the 5min EMA12 as I didn't want to hold through hourly consolidation. Stoploss keeps moving up to each 5 min higher low. These conditions weren't triggered yesterday.

    So today I know that hourly consolidation is VERY likely. I also know that momentum is very strong and there is pressure on shorts to there is very likely to be a pop on the open. I maintain the same conditions as yesterday for my sell levels. This was triggered at around AU$7.06. At this point I sell all long and go short. This short is a smaller position size as I'm going against trend (higher risk), however I know that we must see hourly consolidation. I take some profit coming into support around AU$6.90 so that I am break even if I end up getting stopped out (risk mitigation). Next profit target was 5min RSI oversold or around low of day, so covered AU$6.80. 5min RSI oversold will often signal the bottom of hourly consolidation. I went long again at this point, with stop below low of the day.

    So tomorrow... I have the long position. People will look at the daily candle ad see it as a big red flag. But zoom into the hourly chart and you see that it's just hourly consolidation, so isn't a worry in the slightest. We are in fact creating a nice potential hourly bullflag and a expect we will test and probably break the high of today tomorrow. I expect another strong open. The AU$7.40-$7.50 area is then the spot to watch coming in to resistance.

    Attachment 13100
    Attachment 13101
    Attachment 13102
    Bubble burst? Whats happening today. hmmm was hoping was on an upwards trajectory to be sustained. Surprising to see todays movement. Maybe it's not yet a sure thing we are in the clear yet. Was it just us hopefull's and the real movers are starting to cash out a profit already. I suppose a 15% gain up in recent days is decent enough for many. Seems to be steadily dealing again, what do you think JTH?

  2. #22922
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    Quote Originally Posted by dobby41 View Post
    Why has the daigou never worked out of NZ - it is always talked about out of Australia?
    NZ has bonded stores who arrange delivery but IF banned sending by NZ post


    Q: Will people in New Zealand be able to post infant formula to their relatives overseas?

    A: No. If someone buys infant formula from a supermarket and posts it from New Zealand without following the regulations for exporting dairy products then they are operating unlawfully and outside the regulated export supply chain. This has always been the case under the APA. The law has not changed.
    Under New Zealand law, any infant formula that is sent to anyone in China needs an Export Certificate (also commonly called a Health Certificate). MPI issues such Export Certificates. To receive an Export Certificate from MPI, the infant formula must meet MPI requirements for export to China and the infant formula must stay with an MPI approved Risk Management Programme (RMP) holder continually from the farm up to export. If infant formula leaves the RMP chain it is no longer eligible for export and MPI cannot issue an Export Certificate.

    These rules apply to all dairy materials and products.

  3. #22923
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    Quote Originally Posted by dreamcatcher View Post
    NZ has bonded stores who arrange delivery but IF banned sending by NZ post


    Q: Will people in New Zealand be able to post infant formula to their relatives overseas?

    A: No. If someone buys infant formula from a supermarket and posts it from New Zealand without following the regulations for exporting dairy products then they are operating unlawfully and outside the regulated export supply chain. This has always been the case under the APA. The law has not changed.
    Under New Zealand law, any infant formula that is sent to anyone in China needs an Export Certificate (also commonly called a Health Certificate). MPI issues such Export Certificates. To receive an Export Certificate from MPI, the infant formula must meet MPI requirements for export to China and the infant formula must stay with an MPI approved Risk Management Programme (RMP) holder continually from the farm up to export. If infant formula leaves the RMP chain it is no longer eligible for export and MPI cannot issue an Export Certificate.

    These rules apply to all dairy materials and products.
    Thanks for explaining that - it has been bugging me for a while.
    Cheers

  4. #22924
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maxtrade View Post
    Bubble burst? Whats happening today. hmmm was hoping was on an upwards trajectory to be sustained. Surprising to see todays movement. Maybe it's not yet a sure thing we are in the clear yet. Was it just us hopefull's and the real movers are starting to cash out a profit already. I suppose a 15% gain up in recent days is decent enough for many. Seems to be steadily dealing again, what do you think JTH?
    Last two days were too easy, so it's only fair today has been much harder to trade!

    We set that hourly higher low in the first hours of trading (ASX), however we threw straight back (short term red flag). We are now in an hourly downtrend (short term red flag). Continuation of this rally is still the most likely scenario if the AU$6.70 level holds. If we get to AU$6.60 that'll likely be an excellent entry (gap fill).

    Slow grind down (bit of a falling wedge) gives me higher confidence this is likely to bounce.

  5. #22925

  6. #22926
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    Danone also released a result in which it noted that the Daigou channel had returned to growth. These comments were in line with the recent Bubs Australia update last week.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/jarden-brief-state-of-victoria-relaxes-border-crossing-rules/5XAIKT43B4KL6WJRH7HBU5ZHAU/

  7. #22927
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    Quote Originally Posted by X-men View Post
    Danone also released a result in which it noted that the Daigou channel had returned to growth. These comments were in line with the recent Bubs Australia update last week.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/jarden-brief-state-of-victoria-relaxes-border-crossing-rules/5XAIKT43B4KL6WJRH7HBU5ZHAU/
    For those interested, this is what Danone had to say (excerpt) in their Q3 Sales press release:

    "Infant Nutrition delivered moderate growth this quarter. As expected, growth was led by China which grew double digits with a broad-based contribution from all channels. Channels distributing domestic labels delivered another quarter of mid to high single-digit growth while International labels sold in crossborder e-commerce platforms kept posting steep double-digit growth. Cross-border indirect channels, which notably include Daigous and Friends & Family, were back to growth after having declined by approximately -60% in the same period last year."

  8. #22928
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    Hmmmmm - continuing to power on.

    Shorts continuing to cover?

  9. #22929
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    Hahaha, guys said Daigou has dead, A2 is over, hahahaha

  10. #22930
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    For those interested, this is what Danone had to say (excerpt) in their Q3 Sales press release:

    "Infant Nutrition delivered moderate growth this quarter. As expected, growth was led by China which grew double digits with a broad-based contribution from all channels. Channels distributing domestic labels delivered another quarter of mid to high single-digit growth while International labels sold in crossborder e-commerce platforms kept posting steep double-digit growth. Cross-border indirect channels, which notably include Daigous and Friends & Family, were back to growth after having declined by approximately -60% in the same period last year."
    Not long to go for strategic day next week on 27th. Slightly positive/upbeat commentary along lines of what Danone and Bub said, this will surge close to $10 in no time.

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