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  1. #21941
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    News that British multinational consumer goods giant Reckitt Benckiser Group will take a 2.5 billion ($4.57 billion) hit on the sale of its struggling baby formula business in China is not a good sign for The a2 Milk Company.

    https://www.afr.com/companies/manufa...0210608-p57z0t
    God I'm glad I closed out my position in this. It would need to do a 95% from current levels to get back to the price when I sold. I wonder how many, like I did, held on for too long because we felt a kinship with a company that made us a lot of money.

  2. #21942
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    You could also say that the Reckett Benckiser Group's Chinese business model is vastly different from A2M's and the impending sale could be good news for ATM.

    In the current T-Mall promotion A2 currently ranked 4th.

    T - Mall sale .png

    ( As usual DYOR and take care ..... this result may be a skewed by 'discounting' and 'lower margins'.... time will tell.)
    Last edited by Left field; 09-06-2021 at 12:39 PM.

  3. #21943
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    Something about the tide going out and someone is caught without swimwear?

    https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/05...tals-reappear/

    As the case of A2 Milk shows, ‘poster child’ stocks which can generate a lot of hype and capture the headlines for a time are no substitute for quality businesses like Brambles, which possess a sustainable competitive advantage, recurring earnings, and capable management which can grow the business over the longer term, and which are trading at a reasonable price.
    Last edited by Balance; 10-06-2021 at 07:03 PM.

  4. #21944
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    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    You could also say that the Reckett Benckiser Group's Chinese business model is vastly different from A2M's and the impending sale could be good news for ATM.
    By Broker News

    With Reckitt’s having divested of its China infant formula business, Citi evaluates the read-through for a2 Milk.

    Were a2 to be priced at the same enterpise value implied by the sales price, it would be worth $12.06 per share. However, the broker believes a2’s earnings are materially different now compared to 2020, given diagou disruption and lack of local China manufacturing.

    A recovery in diagou to 50% of FY20 would value a2 at $6.54, but investment appeal is lower, Citi suggests, given:

    no local production,

    reliance on a single product

    and

    lower market share.

    Sell and $5.85 target retained.
    Last edited by Balance; 10-06-2021 at 07:04 PM.

  5. #21945
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Something about the tide going out and someone is caught without swimwear?

    https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/05...tals-reappear/

    As the case of A2 Milk shows, ‘poster child’ stocks which can generate a lot of hype and capture the headlines for a time are no substitute for quality businesses like Brambles, which possess a sustainable competitive advantage, recurring earnings, and capable management which can grow the business over the longer term, and which are trading at a reasonable price.
    Very interesting graphs. A2 is a 3 year chart and brambles is a 25 year chart. If I invested, which I did, $50,000 in a2 in 2015, on todays closing price would equal $597,000. $50,000 in Brambles in 2015 at $2.60 odd, I will let you do the maths. Sold my last 20,000 lot a few weeks back a bit over $105,000 profit.

  6. #21946
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    https://www.raskmedia.com.au/2021/06...ace-more-heat/
    "A2 milk shares may face more heat"

  7. #21947
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    Seems to be quite solid support forming around 600 mark, possibly driven by bargain hunters creeping in.

    Here's a question i'ld be interested in what posters think.

    In 5 years time, which would have been the better investment at todays prices & why ?
    Lets say just for example $1million invested in ATM or Auckland investment property?

  8. #21948
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Skies View Post
    Seems to be quite solid support forming around 600 mark, possibly driven by bargain hunters creeping in.

    Here's a question i'ld be interested in what posters think.

    In 5 years time, which would have been the better investment at todays prices & why ?
    Lets say just for example $1million invested in ATM or Auckland investment property?
    $1,000,000 property at 10% a year = $1,500,000 in 5 years. $1,000,000 ATM shares at $6.10c= 163,934 shares. The ATM shares would have to go up $3.05c to $9.15c to equal the $500,000 property gain, which could take any amount of years the way a2 is going at the moment. If things picked up and got on track again a2 could gain a few dollars in a number of years. Or you could divide the mill into 5 and invest in 5 different companies. Good night.

  9. #21949
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    Quote Originally Posted by see weed View Post
    $1,000,000 property at 10% a year = $1,500,000 in 5 years. $1,000,000 ATM shares at $6.10c= 163,934 shares. The ATM shares would have to go up $3.05c to $9.15c to equal the $500,000 property gain, which could take any amount of years the way a2 is going at the moment. If things picked up and got on track again a2 could gain a few dollars in a number of years. Or you could divide the mill into 5 and invest in 5 different companies. Good night.
    I'm struggling with the maths in the post above a little. The small error only reinforces the point being made though

    property increase at 10% a year. I assume after five years that means an increase multiplier of 1.1 to the power of five, so 1.6105. Seems to check out.
    year 0 = 1,000,000
    year 1 = 1,000,000*1.1 = 1,100,000
    year 2 = 1,100,000*1.1 = 1,210,000
    year 3 = 1,210,000*1.1 = 1,331,000
    year 4 = 1,331,000*1.1 = 1,464,100
    year 5 = 1,464,100*1.1 = 1,610,510

    so the ATM share price would have to increase even more than the stated 50%. The thing about the house though is that you might be able to buy it using leverage, so that gain could be made on an initial outlay of $100,000 if you can get a 10% lvr. Which is pretty much the maths that has been rewarding those using debt to buy houses, leverage is king, well, maybe heir to compounding interest, but close...
    Last edited by tommy_d; 12-06-2021 at 06:33 AM.

  10. #21950
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    Quote Originally Posted by tommy_d View Post
    I'm struggling with the maths in the post above a little. The small error only reinforces the point being made though

    property increase at 10% a year. I assume after five years that means an increase multiplier of 1.1 to the power of five, so 1.6105. Seems to check out.
    year 0 = 1,000,000
    year 1 = 1,000,000*1.1 = 1,100,000
    year 2 = 1,100,000*1.1 = 1,210,000
    year 3 = 1,210,000*1.1 = 1,331,000
    year 4 = 1,331,000*1.1 = 1,464,100
    year 5 = 1,464,100*1.1 = 1,610,510

    so the ATM share price would have to increase even more than the stated 50%. The thing about the house though is that you might be able to buy it using leverage, so that gain could be made on an initial outlay of $100,000 if you can get a 10% lvr. Which is pretty much the maths that has been rewarding those using debt to buy houses, leverage is king, well, maybe heir to compounding interest, but close...
    Yes you are right, I forgot to compound the yearly interest. So the new figure is a2 would have to go up $3.725c plus the $6.10c = $9.825c to match the investment property gain. Am talking basic, if you had a mill $ in the bank without getting a mortgage and bought a property or a2 shares. If mortgage interest rates happened to go up in the next 5 years it might slow the rising property market from 10% year to 7% year. Time will tell, and hope mortgage rates don't go up too much for the struggling. When I had a mortgage they were in the 12% to 15% range and always had at least 40% deposit years ago.

  11. #21951
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    Quote Originally Posted by tommy_d View Post
    I'm struggling with the maths in the post above a little. The small error only reinforces the point being made though <img src="images/smilies/001_smile.gif" border="0" alt="" title="Smile_2" smilieid="17" class="inlineimg"><br>
    <br>
    property increase at 10% a year. I assume after five years that means an increase multiplier of 1.1 to the power of five, so 1.6105. Seems to check out. <br>
    year 0 = 1,000,000<br>
    year 1 = 1,000,000*1.1 = 1,100,000<br>
    year 2 = 1,100,000*1.1 = 1,210,000<br>
    year 3 = 1,210,000*1.1 = 1,331,000<br>
    year 4 = 1,331,000*1.1 = 1,464,100<br>
    year 5 = 1,464,100*1.1 = 1,610,510<br>
    <br>
    so the ATM share price would have to increase even more than the stated 50%. The thing about the house though is that you might be able to buy it using leverage, so that gain could be made on an initial outlay of $100,000 if you can get a 10% lvr. Which is pretty much the maths that has been rewarding those using debt to buy houses, leverage is king, well, maybe heir to compounding interest, but close...
    <br>
    Post put in twice accidentally.
    Last edited by see weed; 12-06-2021 at 08:00 PM. Reason: Two identical postings put in accidentally

  12. #21952
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    Quote Originally Posted by see weed View Post
    $1,000,000 property at 10% a year = $1,500,000 in 5 years. $1,000,000 ATM shares at $6.10c= 163,934 shares. The ATM shares would have to go up $3.05c to $9.15c to equal the $500,000 property gain, which could take any amount of years the way a2 is going at the moment. If things picked up and got on track again a2 could gain a few dollars in a number of years. Or you could divide the mill into 5 and invest in 5 different companies. Good night.


    Interested you see/base figures on house price growth increasing at 10% year which seems to have been general consensus.
    However, since govt policy changes, Westpac revised their forecast from +10% year to prices falling in 2022 & 23.
    Added to new govt policies, coming inflation & rising mortgage rates, competition from Aust both salaries & housing, a steeply declining NZ birth rate which the market doesn't seem to be accounting for yet, & falling migration, not sure that 10% is still such a sure bet.

    On other hand demand for protein expected to double by 2050, the NZ (A2 sourced) brand excellent compared to alternative industrialised factory herds fed on soy & antibiotics, & once distribution channels resume &/or alternatives & new markets established, could see ATM SP doubling in 5 years time. Would still not be much more than half it's peak.

    Hope this not too off topic but sometimes comparing very diff investments $ for $ helps lend new perspective.

  13. #21953
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Skies View Post
    Interested you see/base figures on house price growth increasing at 10% year which seems to have been general consensus.
    However, since govt policy changes, Westpac revised their forecast from +10% year to prices falling in 2022 & 23.
    Added to new govt policies, coming inflation & rising mortgage rates, competition from Aust both salaries & housing, a steeply declining NZ birth rate which the market doesn't seem to be accounting for yet, & falling migration, not sure that 10% is still such a sure bet.

    On other hand demand for protein expected to double by 2050, the NZ (A2 sourced) brand excellent compared to alternative industrialised factory herds fed on soy & antibiotics, & once distribution channels resume &/or alternatives & new markets established, could see ATM SP doubling in 5 years time. Would still not be much more than half it's peak.

    Hope this not too off topic but sometimes comparing very diff investments $ for $ helps lend new perspective.
    I agree with what you are saying. I only used 10% as an example. We could use 5% as an example, then a2 would only have to go up about $1.86c which is half of $3.72c. Am going to have a rest now with all these figures whirling around in my head.

  14. #21954
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    Things are up in a hurry here over past few days, 6.50 NZ and 6.05 AU as I type.

  15. #21955
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    Things are up in a hurry here over past few days, 6.50 NZ and 6.05 AU as I type.
    A2Mtrend.JPG

    Hmm - looks like an unbroken downtrend to me. This jitter ways below the MA 50 is just what any old downtrending stocks happens to do.

    What do you see?

    A2Mtrend.JPG

    Any reason why you think ATM's fortunes should change? I guess they neither replaced the board nor the CEO and neither did they clean out their clogged up Daigou channel, didn't they? Same old, same old ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  16. #21956
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    A2Mtrend.JPG

    Hmm - looks like an unbroken downtrend to me. This jitter ways below the MA 50 is just what any old downtrending stocks happens to do.

    What do you see?

    A2Mtrend.JPG

    Any reason why you think ATM's fortunes should change? I guess they neither replaced the board nor the CEO and neither did they clean out their clogged up Daigou channel, didn't they? Same old, same old ...
    Sorry but my crystal ball isn't working. Until we hear from the company of any material update, we are all speculating and in the meantime big boys with their research would've got ahead of the curve. That's all I can think of.

  17. #21957
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post

    Hmm - looks like an unbroken downtrend to me. This jitter ways below the MA 50 is just what any old downtrending stocks happens to do.

    What do you see?
    Yes, if you are using the 50MA as a yardstick it's still a way to go at about $7. Short term though there are various resistances being broken, depending on whether the chart is log-scale or arithmetic.

    A2M imo is better for charting due to the huge volumes. The A2M arithmetic scale chart had a 9/21 MA crossover a few days ago and 9/21 EMA crossover is very close now (traders will like that). It has also broken up through the long term downtrend line, question will be whether it holds.

    I think for A2, the question at the moment is not about good news, the SP is already $1 up off it's low, it's whether there is any more bad news to come.

  18. #21958
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    A2Mtrend.JPG

    Hmm - looks like an unbroken downtrend to me. This jitter ways below the MA 50 is just what any old downtrending stocks happens to do.

    What do you see?

    A2Mtrend.JPG

    Any reason why you think ATM's fortunes should change? I guess they neither replaced the board nor the CEO and neither did they clean out their clogged up Daigou channel, didn't they? Same old, same old ...
    a2m1.jpg

    I got a clear break above the downtrend line which is probably causing the movement today.

  19. #21959
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    If it closes above 641 today it would have broken through the upper channel line on a linear regression chart (linear regression point plus +0.3 STDEV)

    Some say that's a buy as it will go on and form a new channel (upward) - others say its a sell as probably fall back into the prevailing trend

    BP would stay still in a strong down trend and needs to break through 800 as first sign down trend is over (like break the ongoing lower highs and lower lows)
    When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    If it closes above 641 today it would have broken through the upper channel line on a linear regression chart (linear regression point plus +0.3 STDEV)

    Some say that's a buy as it will go on and form a new channel (upward) - others say its a sell as probably fall back into the prevailing trend

    BP would stay still in a strong down trend and needs to break through 800 as first sign down trend is over (like break the ongoing lower highs and lower lows)
    That's why TA is such a flexible tool for traders.

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