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02-09-2018, 09:31 AM
#10261
Originally Posted by winner69
So true percy but i’ll add, if I may, that one needs to recognise when the ‘system that works’ may one day fail and they need to review what they day
Exactly.
I have found "systems that work" based on,Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett,Peter Lynch, and Jim Slater have stood the test of time.
None broke yet.1952 to 2018.
2019 different.?
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02-09-2018, 10:58 AM
#10262
Originally Posted by percy
Exactly.
I have found "systems that work" based on,Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett,Peter Lynch, and Jim Slater have stood the test of time.
None broke yet.1952 to 2018.
2019 different.?
The Couta Outrageous holding model has always worked very well for me and when ive shortchanged it by selling too early or tried to diversify too much I've been Outrageously shortchanged.
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02-09-2018, 11:13 AM
#10263
Originally Posted by couta1
The Couta Outrageous holding model has always worked very well for me and when ive shortchanged it by selling too early or tried to diversify too much I've been Outrageously shortchanged.
You are following Buffett's model.
He is prepared to buy 100% of a company.
You just need to refine your model a little bit,ie.. never sell.....
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02-09-2018, 11:34 AM
#10264
Originally Posted by percy
You are following Buffett's model.
He is prepared to buy 100% of a company.
You just need to refine your model a little bit,ie.. never sell.....
I'm in good company then, I read about his Asymmetrical holdings although I've never read any books by him or any of the above mentioned names, I just followed my own style from the start. PS-Have been starting to refine the model over the last year but that has been influenced by this guy named Percy on some random NZ forum rather than Buffet.
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02-09-2018, 11:52 AM
#10265
Originally Posted by couta1
I'm in good company then, I read about his Asymmetrical holdings although I've never read any books by him or any of the above mentioned names, I just followed my own style from the start. PS-Have been starting to refine the model over the last year but that has been influenced by this guy named Percy on some random NZ forum rather than Buffet.
Take care,I am looking to avoid reading his posts and putting him on my ignore list,after he turned turtle, and brought MVN, after slagging them for years.!
PS.Get your wife to read you a chapter of either Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch's books, in bed, before you go to sleep at night.
Guarantees sweet dreams, and a good nights sleep.
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02-09-2018, 12:27 PM
#10266
Originally Posted by percy
There are a huge number of "systems" or "styles" or "approaches" to investing.FA,TA,Momentum,the stars,contrarian etc.
Flitting from one to another,than another, is a sure way to confusion, and failure.
I have known very successful investors who only invest in booze shares,while others who only invest in property shares.
Once you have worked out what works for you, it pays to stick with it.
I couldn't agree more. Any bean counter worth is salt must have a high propensity to be an investor based on the fundamental's and I'm no exception. That said there is a lot of irrational behavior in the market so I like it best when FA and TA are in sync like they presently are with great stocks like SUM, SML and now ATM. I feel quite uncomfortable when TA and FA are badly out of sync like they currently are with TRA which explains why I halved my position at $3.16 before the recent decline. I will stick with the way I do things now..it works for me and besides that its hard to teach an old dog new tricks lol
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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02-09-2018, 01:01 PM
#10267
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
Just curious - why would you think there would be a framework of rational choice shaping our markets? I guess if this is anything to do with the theory of a rational and efficient market - this has been thrown on the scrapheap of history some time ago. There are some good books about behavioral economy around (written e.g. by R. Thaler / Danny Kahneman). If you don't know where to start - try "Misbehaving" written by Richard Thaler.
Markets are a level 2 chaotic system - and yes, herd behavior is for social animals like us humans a very strong motivator (right or wrong). In terms of understanding whats happening - you are normally able to explain what brought a herd to stampede ... but it is often quite hard to explain why they did run into a particular direction. Might be something like that butterfly in Beijing causing a tornado at the US West coast.
Same with markets - don't try to understand them, exploit them!
Rationale irrationality is an interesting subject
Often discussed in politics but applies to ‘investing’ as well
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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02-09-2018, 01:08 PM
#10268
Originally Posted by Beagle
I couldn't agree more. Any bean counter worth is salt must have a high propensity to be an investor based on the fundamental's and I'm no exception. That said there is a lot of irrational behavior in the market so I like it best when FA and TA are in sync like they presently are with great stocks like SUM, SML and now ATM. I feel quite uncomfortable when TA and FA are badly out of sync like they currently are with TRA which explains why I halved my position at $3.16 before the recent decline. I will stick with the way I do things now..it works for me and besides that its hard to teach an old dog new tricks lol
TRA I have increased my holding since their result in May and their presentations.It has worked for me adding to my "high conviction" shares on any share price weakness.
All started in about 1990 when Smiths City went into receivership.The last day of them being listed, was the day I started buying.
I visited their shops and became an expert on their business.The business was still very well supported by their loyal customers.
I checked the share registry was still operating.Their finance company was still being funded by FPF.Then I approached local sharebrokers to buy SCY shares.They were keen to have a buyer,so they could clean up deceased estates.I found the then Chairman,Bill Revell was happy to speak to me and answer my questions.Over the next 4 or 5 years while they were delisted I built up a substantial holding.
So I do my research and back myself.
Did it with HBL,and have also being doing it over the past 6 years with a company on the NZ USX .
Seems to work just fine.
disc.Was a top 20 SCY shareholder,and currently in a USX company's top 20,but have never made to either TRA's or HBL's top 20.[so far lol].
Last edited by percy; 02-09-2018 at 01:20 PM.
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02-09-2018, 01:21 PM
#10269
Happy its worked for you Percy. You're also too old to learn new tricks I need to refine my strategy, (take a leaf from your book) and become a more patient investor. If TA and FA stay in line keep holding until they don't. I think that's going to be a strategy that will do my portfolio in shares like ATM, SUM and SML wonders over the long run.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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02-09-2018, 01:31 PM
#10270
Originally Posted by Beagle
Happy its worked for you Percy. You're also too old to learn new tricks I need to refine my strategy, (take a leaf from your book) and become a more patient investor. If TA and FA stay in line keep holding until they don't. I think that's going to be a strategy that will do my portfolio in shares like ATM, SUM and SML wonders over the long run.
Just think if you had the cash to buy the whole company would you.?
If not, why buy any shares in it.
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