ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[couta1]

Can anyone please tell me how this company is going to make money in the short term, bearing in mind the following:

1. Hurricane Florence is going to hit North & South Carolina and Virginia. A large area of the US for A2 sales which might possibly be impacted in H1 FY19 results.
2. The UK is a struggle by the company's own admission and the UK does not feature as a focus in their Outlook for the future.
3. The NZ role out will be a drag on the bottom line as there will be costs with marketing and distribution with little chance of scale as NZ is too small.
4. With the bloated costs of the ANZ operations in comparison to the Asia operation, the company has stated it intends to increase marketing on the China/Asia market. Hope it works.
5. No other or emerging market options, but they are a waste of time anyway.

I actually hope the SP goes North, but will it, can it?

Sounds like you might like to consider trimming your sizable shareholding somewhat to a level you are comfortable holding through all the turbulence, IMO A2 is the future of milk looking forward and there will be plenty of pie to go around. PS-Holding half as many as a few months back as a Long Term position.

[Muppett]

Sounds like you might like to consider trimming your sizable shareholding somewhat to a level you are comfortable holding through all the turbulence, IMO A2 is the future of milk looking forward and there will be plenty of pie to go around. PS-Holding half as many as a few months back as a Long Term position.

I used to have 250,000 shares when it was $1.80-$2.00 but then sold periodically to now only have 50,000.
I do hope the SP goes North but am struggling to see any logic in it. Broker reports are self interested.
I am guessing that GS, if not already, will start unloading.
Have not heard back from the guy on here who says there's a gap to fill at $9.50. I'll cry if he is right.

[minimoke]

Can anyone please tell me how this company is going to make money in the short term, bearing in mind the following:

1. Hurricane Florence is going to hit North & South Carolina and Virginia. A large area of the US for A2 sales which might possibly be impacted in H1 FY19 results.
2. The UK is a struggle by the company's own admission and the UK does not feature as a focus in their Outlook for the future.
3. The NZ role out will be a drag on the bottom line as there will be costs with marketing and distribution with little chance of scale as NZ is too small.
4. With the bloated costs of the ANZ operations in comparison to the Asia operation, the company has stated it intends to increase marketing on the China/Asia market. Hope it works.
5. No other or emerging market options, but they are a waste of time anyway.

I dont understand the concern behind your questions.

Take Question 1 for example.

US/UK revenues are reported as $15.4m (exc $15m infant formula sold to UK.)
China / Asia revenues $233m
ANZ revenues $656m

Now let's say USA is half the US / UK revenues so lets call it 7.5m
Now lets say North / South Carolina is half US sales. Lets call that $3.5m
Now lets say 50% of North / South Carolina consumers are affected by the Hurricane we are now talking about $1.7m

Now lets say distribution is affected for 2 weeks.

Do you see where I am going with this?

pg 24 of the hong kong presentation will give you a picture of US distribution. Then read rest of report for guidance on the answers you are lookng for.

[Dust]

Rather than a position reduction maybe look at hedging the storm instead? Homebuilders, auto repair typically do well after a bad hurricane. The spot prices for trucking capacities will also benefit. Although none of these names are currently outperforming, which suggests that market don't see much of a material impact from the hurricane...

[BlackPeter]

I used to have 250,000 shares when it was $1.80-$2.00 but then sold periodically to now only have 50,000.
I do hope the SP goes North but am struggling to see any logic in it. Broker reports are self interested.
I am guessing that GS, if not already, will start unloading.
Have not heard back from the guy on here who says there's a gap to fill at $9.50. I'll cry if he is right.

Well, there clearly has been (and is) a gap - however - not all gaps get filled - it is just another statistical game.

https://www.investopedia.com/article...layinggaps.asp

BTW - it was Moosie postulating this gap. His TA which he liberally shares with others is very worthwhile reading, however - he does not post anymore on this forum.

[Muppett]

Thanks to all the above for your thoughts and replies.

[longy]

Well, there clearly has been (and is) a gap - however - not all gaps get filled - it is just another statistical game.

https://www.investopedia.com/article...layinggaps.asp

BTW - it was Moosie postulating this gap. His TA which he liberally shares with others is very worthwhile reading, however - he does not post anymore on this forum.

What happened to Moosie better question where is Moosie now?

[BlackPeter]

What happened to Moosie better question where is Moosie now?

You might read his comments from time to time on NBR .. and than there are other forums. Search and you will find ;

[minimoke]

I'm not a big fan of these off-shore "hybrid" AGM's. How can I get my cup of tea and scones which I always consider to be part of my Special Dividend? Christchurch trumps Melbourne any day of the week.

[sb9]

Noticed today volume traded on NZX is higher than ASX, doesn't happen very often.