ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[MAC]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...ket-fears.html

And, someone is exporting A2 Platinum to China at only AUD $189.99 + $84.99 postage.

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/like/1813...t=0&sortbid=22

Just adds to the empty shelves, shortages and high demand in Australia.

[Master98]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...ket-fears.html

And, someone is exporting A2 Platinum to China at only AUD $189.99 + $84.99 postage.

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/like/1813...t=0&sortbid=22

Just adds to the empty shelves, shortages and high demand in Australia.

http://a2nutrition.tmall.com/

A2 Platinum on sale for 488 chinese dollars( nz$90) in china, and young chinese couples are very happy about this product as it is made from A2 milk.

[zcyong]

online sales only 31 tins a month in tianmao

[MAC]

The interesting thing about the recent 31% drop in global dairy trade (GDT) prices is that a 2 litre bottle of A2 milk on the supermarket shelf in Australia is still selling at $5, exactly as it was this time last year.

http://shop.coles.com.au/online/Sear...&searchTerm=a2

ANZ yesterday downgraded its forecast farm gate milk price to $6.25/kg of milk solids compared with Fonterra's $7/kg forecast issued in May.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/trade/news...ectid=11286479

This can only be a good thing for ATM as it seems farm gate milk prices have confidently peaked earlier in the year and are now heading back toward historical levels more associated with 2011 and 2012, ..... great.

And, with across the counter A2 retail prices holding and A2 farm gate prices probably dropping we may see even further gross margin expansion, ..... even greater.

A2 premium at the farm gate: 8 to 10%
A2 premium at the supermarket: 50%

ATM Gross Margins.jpg

[NT001]

Isn't it the case that Ridge is the company that makes most of the profit in NZ, paying A2Corp some kind of licence fee, where as the real profit for A2Corp is in Australia? Anyway, Australia's a much bigger market. Pity about the delay with Chinese approval for Synlait, but even so their shares have risen today. I'm still very confident about ATM despite the current dip in SP, same for PEB - I think innovative tech stocks are probably being hit by the spate of new issues coming on the market. Some people like to buy into new companies, and I guess we should all be pleased to see some new offerings in the market. As long as Milford is buying, I'm very comfortable.

[see weed]

Isn't it the case that Ridge is the company that makes most of the profit in NZ, paying A2Corp some kind of licence fee, where as the real profit for A2Corp is in Australia? Anyway, Australia's a much bigger market. Pity about the delay with Chinese approval for Synlait, but even so their shares have risen today. I'm still very confident about ATM despite the current dip in SP, same for PEB - I think innovative tech stocks are probably being hit by the spate of new issues coming on the market. Some people like to buy into new companies, and I guess we should all be pleased to see some new offerings in the market. As long as Milford is buying, I'm very comfortable.

20,000,000, I think, in the last 3 or 4 weeks

[MAC]

I've been topping up like Milford too, the DCF is providing a valuation of FY14 $1.09 (+58%).

I also suspect we may see a rights issue to finance the pending entry into the US market rather than a slower entry funded just from revenues, go big or go home. An announcement on the US strategy must be close now.

Valuation Basis:

WACC 11.25%, 30yr PG 3.0%, 35% gross margins, 5% net margins from FY16 ATM announced numerical goals; - Infant formula sales to china of $60M representing a 1% market share by 2016. - A UK target of 1.8% market share by 2016 - An Australian market share of 10% recently brought forward to "by mid 2015", was 2016 - Total revenues of $280M by 2016 ATM Market Share.jpg ATM Gross Margins.jpg

[Lease]

I've been topping up like Milford too, the DCF is providing a valuation of FY14 $1.09 (+58%).

I also suspect we may see a rights issue to finance the pending entry into the US market rather than a slower entry funded just from revenues, go big or go home. An announcement on the US strategy must be close now.

Valuation Basis:

WACC 11.25%, 30yr PG 3.0%, 35% gross margins, 5% net margins from FY16 ATM announced numerical goals; - Infant formula sales to china of $60M representing a 1% market share by 2016. - A UK target of 1.8% market share by 2016 - An Australian market share of 10% recently brought forward to "by mid 2015", was 2016 - Total revenues of $280M by 2016 ATM Market Share.jpg ATM Gross Margins.jpg

DCF is the most unreliable method for valuation. If the assumptions have even 0.1% discrepancy, the result will be huge different.

[nextbigthing]

DCF is the most unreliable method for valuation. If the assumptions have even 0.1% discrepancy, the result will be huge different.

What's your valuation for ATM Lease and how do you arrive at it?

[dingoNZ]

DCF is the most unreliable method for valuation. If the assumptions have even 0.1% discrepancy, the result will be huge different.

Yet its widely used by analysts, go figure.

All analysis is based off assumptions, whatever method you used. Research dictates how accurate you are/will be. Analysis is only as good as the time spend conducting it.