ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Baa_Baa]

https://www.9news.com.au/2018/10/23/...instate-limits

And still they keep on buying!

"A2 has also doubled production of its premium formula, but that's not enough to meet supply."

What a great problem to have and solve. With Synlait rapidly boosting production and the agreement with Fonterror (unknown quantity), the supply side should catch up to the demand, but not in time for Singles Day 11 November. No doubt that A2 is the premium brand.

Should be a fun update from ATM in November. I reckon the Jayne / Directors selling effect is worth about 20% discount to SP and should burn off to previous highs when results announced shortly.

Could say this recent period has been a great buying opportunity. Even Moaningstar (cough) reckon it's 'accumulate' target SP in the $14's. They could be right for once, lol.

[Beagle]

If they are right in due course that's all the proof you'll ever need that every dog has its day

[Baa_Baa]

If they are right in due course that's all the proof you'll ever need that every dog has its day

Of course you are referring to Moaningstar as the dog, who might have its day? Not ATM pe se.

I reckon this is one of the very few shares on NZX that have such a stellar growth niche that while it will fluctuate with the broader market and its internal vagaries, and no doubt it is volatile, it has extremely large growth potential. It could defy the market in the medium to longer term in spite of a even a broad correction and emerge as a value/growth play that one wonders in due course why they missed the buying opportunities presented.

JMHO, it's still very speculative despite a 10+ bagger for the earlies. But so have been a few other companies that enjoy having accidental millionaires as their minority shareholders.

Worthy of a modest portion of any portfolio Imo.

[sb9]

Latest from Prof Woodford...

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-new...acting-a2-milk

The below sums up article in a nutshell..

"A2 dairy products are now mainstreaming on a global platform. In marketing parlance, A2 is becoming an industry disruptor."

[Balance]

Latest from Prof Woodford...

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-new...acting-a2-milk

The below sums up article in a nutshell..

"A2 dairy products are now mainstreaming on a global platform. In marketing parlance, A2 is becoming an industry disruptor."

Just wait until mothers (especially those in China) read this :

"Professor Robert Cade from Florida – perhaps most famous as the inventor of Gatorade – established some 20 years ago that BCM7 was a respiratory depressant strongly implicated in sudden infant death syndrome in vulnerable babies. Professor Kost from Moscow showed that babies unable to quickly metabolise BCM7 were at risk of developmental delay. And for some 20 years there have been major concerns leading from Professor Elliott’s work in New Zealand that BCM7 can be a childhood trigger for Type 1 diabetes. There is also evidence that BCM7 can cause arterial inflammation. All of this is published in top-level journals."

Game over for A1 infant formula!

[dobby41]

Game over for A1 infant formula!

I wonder how long it would take for all cows in NZ to be A2?
If that were to happen ATM would no longer be special - all NZ milk and milk products would be A2 - ganme over for ATM?

[Sideshow Bob]

I wonder how long it would take for all cows in NZ to be A2?
If that were to happen ATM would no longer be special - all NZ milk and milk products would be A2 - ganme over for ATM?

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-new...will%C2%A0take

LIC already selling along of semen from A2 bulls, so the process probably already started.

[tzbang]

I wonder how long it would take for all cows in NZ to be A2?
If that were to happen ATM would no longer be special - all NZ milk and milk products would be A2 - ganme over for ATM?

ATM would still have a significant piece of the market pie and if everyone is drinking A2 milk then the pie is huge.

[sb9]

Brace yourself for sector contagion as across the ditch, Bellamy's have their ASM today and their guidance was poor as per below...

"Oct 24 (Reuters) - Bellamy's Australia Ltd (BAL) expects its 2019 first-half sales to fall in a range of 10 percent to 15 percent from a year ago, Chief Executive Officer Andrew Cohen said at an annual general meeting on Wednesday.
The CEO of the infant formula maker, which still awaits a crucial permit to sell its products in Chinese stores, also sees its full year Australian label revenue growth at the lower end of its previously stated zero to 10 percent range."

[petty]

"Brace yourself for sector contagion as across the ditch, Bellamy's have their ASM today and their guidance was poor as per below.."

Maybe... I think the key difference here is that Bellamy's don't yet have a permit to sell in Chinese stores. A permit A2 has through Synlait. Rightly or wrongly Jayne has been quite critical of the Bellamy's model and I think that A2's multi channel approach reduces the risk.

The impact of new ecommerce regulations will be interesting. My view is that A2 first half results will be really solid with the impact (if any) of new regulations occuring in the second half of the year.