ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Muppett]

From teh AGM presentation last year:
"4M18 trading
• Group revenue of NZ$262.2 million:
– Reflects continued strong growth in nutritional products (ANZ, China) and positive momentum in USA, UK
– Includes some seasonal build ahead of key China e-commerce sales events, 11/11 Singles Day and 12/12"

Many thanks.

[minimoke]

Well done, might be the last chance over the next few days to obtain cheap shares before the volcano has another eruption.Lol

Perhaps we shouldnt get ahead of ourselves. Last year, at around this time, we had the Synlait announcement just before the AGM then the updated Q results and SP didn't really go anywhere.

[couta1]

Perhaps we shouldnt get ahead of ourselves. Last year, at around this time, we had the Synlait announcement just before the AGM then the updated Q results and SP didn't really go anywhere.

There's not much future growth potential built into the current price, it only exists because of shorters and other game players.

[Beagle]

Perhaps we shouldnt get ahead of ourselves. Last year, at around this time, we had the Synlait announcement just before the AGM then the updated Q results and SP didn't really go anywhere.

The voice of reason. Its going to take more than some record one day sales event to build momentum after Ms Herdlicker set a new tone going forward of corporate greed.
SP still in the doldrums despite the euphoria of single's day. I think its going to take hard evidence of very strong IH sales and some clarity on the new regulatory regime in China before this has a chance to build genuine momentum again. In the meantime its a traders paradise and seeing as I'm not a trader and don't see any clear direction at present and it has no dividends I'm presently enjoying watching this from the sidelines.

[Leftfield]

The voice of reason. Its going to take more than some record one day sales event to build momentum after Ms Herdlicker set a new tone going forward of corporate greed.
SP still in the doldrums despite the euphoria of single's day. I think its going to take hard evidence of very strong IH sales and some clarity on the new regulatory regime in China before this has a chance to build genuine momentum again. In the meantime its a traders paradise and seeing as I'm not a trader and don't see any clear direction at present and it has no dividends I'm presently enjoying watching this from the sidelines.

Yes important not to get too excited. However...

According to this article, A2 was the best performing 'cross border' brand.

Also important to note that ATM outsold competitor Optimal which has/had 10% share of the China IF market. Prior to this event ATM had around 5.6% mkt share. I expect ATM's market share will get re-rated soon (if it can meet demand)

Also important for people like Muppet to appreciate that IF sales are where there are huge profit margins for ATM compared to sales of raw milk in Aust, USA,UK etc.

How will this all relate to the FY19 bottom line? DYOR.

Me buying back-in this morning may have been seen to be a bit rash by some, but even with this latest purchase my holding cost on a significant amount of ATM is still under 50c ps and I felt like Buffett buying-back more of my own company!

[minimoke]

Heres is last years singles results. Lets see how this year went: "a2 Platinum® again participatedsuccessfully in key online sales events. Inthe major ‘11/11 Singles Day’ event it wasthe top-selling infant formula onKaola.com, second on JD.com and thirdon T-mall."

[Beagle]

Appreciate your point of view Left field. Chatting with Couta1 this morning one of the subjects was why don't Synlait just ramp up production massively to meet all demand so they don't end up in this stock shortage situation ? From memory as a SML shareholder I recall contracted production for ATM IF is set to increase by a fairly modest ~ 20% for FY19 considerably down from the ~ 80% increase last year. I can't help wonder if these sort of stock shortages are a little "creatively engineered" to build up the hype and are in fact part of a fairly cunning marketing program to generate social media hype around ATM IF product ? Many will recall how Apple used to generate massive hype around the release of each new iPhone model and customers would queue around the block and sleep overnight in order to be first in the queue at the store and assured of getting one.

Stock shortages must be immensely frustrating from a consumers point of view. As a young Chinese mother you're either lactating sufficient milk supply or you're not and breast milk supply can't be simply turned on or off depending upon whether they can get sufficient IF supply can it !

Anyone got any thoughts why ATM simply don't ask Synlait for more supply ? Are Synlait's own A2 production forecast's too conservative for FY19 ?
Will Herdlicker take another lick at Synlait seeing its down $2 from her last bite ?

Anyone going to Synlait annual meeting on 28 November to get the good oil (milk ?) on this production situation ?

[minimoke]

Time for a picture from Kaola.com

[minimoke]

And now for one from JD.com

[minimoke]

And finally one from TMall