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07-03-2019, 11:51 AM
#12621
Originally Posted by Balance
Suggest someone knows there are BIG orders coming from US?
Certainly does seem so going by trading pattern on NZX. Think US orders may be channelled thro' ASX.
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07-03-2019, 03:23 PM
#12622
Originally Posted by couta1
I've only a few left since yesterday and as I dont think it will make it into the ASX 50 this time there will be downward pressure on the SP in due course, reckon it will retreat back to around $13.80-$14, in the mean time I'm keeping myself amused with a certain other milky one.
Looks like you timed that very nicely. Well done!
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08-03-2019, 09:50 AM
#12623
Jayne busy today ....with quite a few International Women's Day committments
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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08-03-2019, 03:24 PM
#12624
SHORTMAN'S latest update - how do you close 29.4m shorts without pushing SP higher ............... answer very painfully financially.
Investor presentations will create more buying interest.
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08-03-2019, 03:56 PM
#12625
Junior Member
Originally Posted by couta1
I've only a few left since yesterday and as I dont think it will make it into the ASX 50 this time there will be downward pressure on the SP in due course, reckon it will retreat back to around $13.80-$14, in the mean time I'm keeping myself amused with a certain other milky one.
KTD is seeing some action lately.
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11-03-2019, 10:09 AM
#12626
Originally Posted by dreamcatcher
I agree a2 likely to increase to $16 or higher on any extra positive news like investor presentations or SML result and their current expansions. Also the fact we still have 30m odd Shorters desperately trying to close and fighting for shares against new investors........ and they MUST go.
Nice to take a break recently , even nicer to return to an ATM SP in the $14 range, about $2.00 up from when I left. Nice to be invested in the worlds leading diary disrupter.
It all begs the Q where too from here? Should one continue to hold or take some profits?
ATM EPS at 6:7 March 19.jpg
Projecting this graph from ATM’s recent Nth American investor presentation, I reckon that FY19 revenue will reach circa $NZ1.3 to 1.4 billion and EPS of about 45c per share. At PE of 35 the projected ATM SP could be $NZ 15.75 ( for rough comparison FPH PE is currently 41.8, SML = 25 )
For FY 20, all things being equal, it is likely that revenue growth may slow to about 40%pa which could translate to EPS of circa .63c. So .63c x 30 = SP $NZ18.9 or $22.05 (at PE of 35.) So next year with a bit of luck and a tail wind ATM could reach $NZ20 (approx 30 to 40% above current levels. )
Then there is always the potential of an ATM takeover (or sale of a strategic stake) to force the price up more quickly. Nestle, Unilever and Coke etc must all be taking note. So I’m holding as methinks it is still early days for this diary disrupter.
Just my thoughts DYOR and GLH.
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11-03-2019, 11:38 AM
#12627
Public holiday in many States in Oz today - so maybe not too much action over there.
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11-03-2019, 11:52 AM
#12628
Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob
Public holiday in many States in Oz today - so maybe not too much action over there.
Labour Day only for Vic and Tas.
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11-03-2019, 02:31 PM
#12629
Where to from here? Atm usa expansion is interesting. I wonder if they'll get tied up in legals long enough for local suppliers to catch up with a2 herds, if they'll be stymied by lobbyists, or if they'll knock it out the park.
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12-03-2019, 09:33 AM
#12630
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=a2m
Shorts will determine where ATM sp moves to next, I reckon and it's looking like it's headed higher.
Number of shorts (29m) today down to where they were in October 2018 - 20m covered at what must be horrendous losses as the sp moved from around A$9.50 to recent highs of $14.00.
So will shorters try to 'game' ATM sp again?
More likely the remaining shorts are hoping like hell for Jayne to sell so they can get relief - so stock is underpinned by short covering activity in the next few months at least.
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