ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Beagle]

No...Goat milk is the next big thing mate. I barked it first https://www.globalhealingcenter.com/...milk-benefits/

[couta1]

No...Goat milk is the next big thing mate. I barked it first https://www.globalhealingcenter.com/...milk-benefits/

Good luck drinking that stuff, tastes like crap which is made worse by the fact that it goes off quickly.

[macduffy]

Good luck drinking that stuff, tastes like crap which is made worse by the fact that it goes off quickly.

…… and does that make it taste better or worse?


Seriously, though, I reckon some posters are being rather harsh on one of NZ's most successful companies of recent years.

[RTM]

The hound is barking in the wrong milk bottle here, $17-$18 next year sometime. PS-$11.50 possible due to Schizophrenic unmedicated market but that says nothing about true value.

Considering ATM my thoughts are....if anyone is interested.
a) The market will be concerned about the status of one of their key suppliers...Synlait.
b) Really....how valid is the A2 protein science ?
c) If it is totally valid...how long before all dairy herds are A2 ?
That's what keeps me from investing. Oh...and I don't like the dividend structure.

[Baa_Baa]

Games by the big players accumulating off weak hands, they will be trying hard to force the death cross to occur and cause the last round of panic selling.

The 50/200 DMA 'death cross' is inevitable, it's too late to reverse. That said, last time the death cross occurred the SP was rising out of $8.67 and look where it got too. It's likely that the cross this time, when it happens, in a solid down trend from ATH will trigger various TA inspired responses.

[see weed]

All negativity (except global thermo nuclear war) now priced in eh mate
Or could it be that the hound dog is right and its really only worth $11.50

If you were to jump back in for a little drink, what would be the price to get you jumping? ps goats milk is also a2.

[Beagle]

I see fair value at $11.50 but before dipping my snout in for a drink I'd also want to see TA looking a lot healthier than it does at this point
Could be party time if it gets down to $9 and a right old free for all https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnJ6t-PKLWE

[Baa_Baa]

I see fair value at $11.50 but before dipping my snout in for a drink I'd also want to see TA looking a lot healthier than it does at this point

Have you done a valuation to arrive at $11.50 "fair value"? My FA's not good enough to contrive such a low SP number for this high growth company.

In any event, if it's the TA that keeps you out, you'd need the price to fall well below $11.50 and then rise above say the 100MA before the TA looked good enough to buy. Conundrum is even though it was below your fair value, you still wouldn't buy it because the TA was bad.

[couta1]

I see fair value at $11.50 but before dipping my snout in for a drink I'd also want to see TA looking a lot healthier than it does at this point
Could be party time if it gets down to $9 and a right old free for all https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnJ6t-PKLWE

Careful Beagle talk of $9 would get you labelled a Troll on another forum by many and I'd be one of them. Lol

[Beagle]

Yes I have and you are right, it would need to fall below $11.50 and then build a base and start to recover before TA looked any good.
$11.50 not so outrageous really. https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MI...022/consensus/
One of the analysts has a 12 month price target of just $11.85 which suggests (using a 12% expected rate of return on risk capital), a fair value of just $10.43 at present.
Using the same discounting methodology to the average 12 month price forecast of N.Z. $14.86 (x 0.88) gives $$13.07 as fair value today.

Recent price trading range suggests the current price is about fair value according to average analyst view. Some analysts believe their EDITDA margin will not recover in FY21, FY22 or anytime soon thereafter, (due to ongoing rampant marketing and human resources cost increases) so some DCF valuations are far too optimistic.
Sales rising to $2.3b by 2022 will be a very tough ask too, in my opinion. Lot of growth already well and truly fully priced into this one already.