ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Baa_Baa]

Yes I have and you are right, it would need to fall below $11.50 and then build a base and start to recover before TA looked any good.
$11.50 not so outrageous really. https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MI...022/consensus/
One of the analysts has a 12 month price target of just $11.85 which suggests (using a 12% expected rate of return on risk capital), a fair value of just $10.43 at present.

Well to keep some balance, one analyst reckons $17.50 and the average analysts target which you quote fairly often for other shares is $14.86. Cherry picking the outlier at $11.85 and building a case around that is dubious. So, have you done your own analysis to arrive at $11.85 and an outrageous $9 in a previous post?

Couta's right, you'd have hell fire and brimstone raining upon you and your credibility would be shot to pieces if you posted this stuff on another well known discussion that is passionate about ATM/A2M. Are you doing it just to wind up your mate, like teasing without a LOL?

[Beagle]

LOL - Yes I have worked my own analysis to arrive at $11.50 as fair value today. $9 talk is just party time for Beagle buying, probably won't get there but it did last year (Ducks for cover under a big pile of flak jackets)

[Baa_Baa]

LOL - Yes I have worked my own analysis to arrive at $11.50 as fair value today. $9 talk is just party time for Beagle buying, probably won't get there but it did last year (Ducks for cover under a big pile of flak jackets)

Do you think it slightly incongruous that KFL haven't changed (or sold) their position in ATM even although the SP has dropped from NZ$18 to $13? I thought they were more onto it than that, holding such a losing position. Maybe they still believe their own forecasts?

"Why do we own it?

The a2 Milk Company has a small but fast growing share of the very lucrative Chinese infant formula market. Management have capably executed on its growth plans to date and we expect its market share to continue growing across a range of distribution channels. In addition, there is potential for further upside from new products and geographies."


Personally, I think $11.85 would require a world war III event and at $9 I'd re mortgage the house to buy the truckload I wish I had. Can't say it won't happen with all the geo political nonsense going on and GFCII deferred until who knows when, but on a 'valuation basis' ... yeah nah.

[allfromacell]

Talk of $10 shares are fun and I guess dreams are free but with just 6 weeks until the next trading update I can't see this falling much further.

[Balance]

Talk of $10 shares are fun and I guess dreams are free but with just 6 weeks until the next trading update I can't see this falling much further.

Downgrades come in threes - so do be careful.

[RupertBear]

Downgrades come in threes - so do be careful.

I see this “Downgrades come in threes” quoted a lot and it really does appear to be true. But how can that be? Is it really a thing and if so how come? Or does it just seem that way?

[Balance]

I see this “Downgrades come in threes” quoted a lot and it really does appear to be true. But how can that be? Is it really a thing and if so how come? Or does it just seem that way?

Companies (listed) are tuned to growth in revenues and/or profits so are extremely reluctant when circumstances change to downgrade, until they really have no option but to downgrade.

All too often when faced with this likelihood, hope still reigns supreme and companies (or rather the management & directors) like to believe they can turnaround the ‘’temporary’ reversal of fortunes - so they only downgrade by as little as they can get away with.

Then, comes the results and reality. So companies are forced to downgrade further but still, by only what they think will be sufficient rather than what is required.

And so on and so forth.

[bull....]

been consolidating between 12.90 - 13.40 last week odd so by my calc's a breakdown would imply a move to 12.40

[Beagle]

Do you think it slightly incongruous that KFL haven't changed (or sold) their position in ATM even although the SP has dropped from NZ$18 to $13? I thought they were more onto it than that, holding such a losing position. Maybe they still believe their own forecasts?

"Why do we own it?

The a2 Milk Company has a small but fast growing share of the very lucrative Chinese infant formula market. Management have capably executed on its growth plans to date and we expect its market share to continue growing across a range of distribution channels. In addition, there is potential for further upside from new products and geographies."


Personally, I think $11.85 would require a world war III event and at $9 I'd re mortgage the house to buy the truckload I wish I had. Can't say it won't happen with all the geo political nonsense going on and GFCII deferred until who knows when, but on a 'valuation basis' ... yeah nah.

KFL's position in ATM is not one I agree with and I am disappointed with their approach of adding too it and furthermore I am not especially comfortable with their approach of having 60% of the fund in their top 5 stocks. Its a very, very aggressive position for a fund manager to take and when it goes wrong, they dramatically underperform the market like they did in August 2019 and probably in Sept as well, (Sept monthly report yet to be published). I have revised my position in KFL a little while back, accordingly.
I posted some of my thoughts on the merits between the different investment vehicles in the Kingfish group in post #649 here. https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...ght=Barramundi
Barramundi has a considerably more diversified portfolio, trades at a much higher discount to NTA and invests in a market trading on a forward PE that's quite considerably lower than the NZX. I don't buy individual stocks on the ASX so Barramundi adds considerable diversification to my portfolio.
In terms of KFL now, by and large I am happiest to pick my own stocks on the NZX with whatever weighting I feel is appropriate.
ATM has been a wonderful growth stock under Geoffrey Babbage's leadership. Jayne Herlicka's approach of throwing vast amounts of resource at marketing and human resources to enjoy much slower eps growth is an "interesting" approach and not one I agree with.

[whatsup]

Relentless !