ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Ggcc]

Couldn't agree more, let's not give too much notice to market screener numbers, yawn...

I’ll be the third to agree. Marketscreener is a guide and has been very accurate to date in regards to turnover figures, but I believe the public determine the share price not marketscreener.

[Nasi Goreng]

I haven’t been here for quite a while but I still see the same patterns. couta1 says cheap as chips = hes long knee deep. Over priced = He got out a few weeks ago.

[couta1]

I haven’t been here for quite a while but I still see the same patterns. couta1 says cheap as chips = hes long knee deep. Over priced = He got out a few weeks ago.

Hmm cant remember the last time I said it was overpriced but that could be the dementia kicking in, on the other hand there has hardly ever been more than a day or two for years now when I havent held any. PS-Im probably neck deep currently.

[Snow Leopard]

You're certainly entitled to your own estimates mate but I note the average analyst estimate is 45 cps for FY20 so on today's price of ~ $13.50 that's actually a forward PE of 30. Even on your estimate of 50 cents that's still a forward PE of 27. Cash on hand is irrelevant, (in my opinion) when it comes to looking at forward PE's.

PE's are irrelevant in predicting the future and valuing shares

[winner69]

PE's are irrelevant in predicting the future and valuing shares

Even the much loved Ben Graham said something like that as well.

[couta1]

PE's are irrelevant in predicting the future and valuing shares

Yes XRO would be a good case in point with a PE of -385 and finishing at an all time high of $75 NZ.

[Baa_Baa]

PE's are irrelevant in predicting the future and valuing shares

For this company it seems true, as well as not discounting the massive cash bank looking like getting up to close to a billion $ this or next FY. That in itself opens up all sorts of possibilities.

Current share price presents better opportunity than missing out on the next leg up imo, with ATM one blinks and it’s gone, until fomo kicks in and accelerates the ramp up. The short covering when it kicks in will be epic. Today’s gap up open is suggestive.

The rounding bottom on the chart is looking promising as well, log scale of course 😉

[Beagle]

PE's are irrelevant in predicting the future and valuing shares

Not in my book mate. Most DCF valuations I have seen are ostensibly a whole bunch of guesses clobbered together with a wild guess on the terminal growth rate clobbered together into a discounting model.

Forward PE was about the same,30, when Geoff Babbage was running the company and it was growing eps at several times the forecast rate for FY20.
Lower forecast eps growth for the foreseeable future says to me the PE needs to come down to a more realistic level in my book.

Time, as usual will tell.

[winner69]

Not in my book mate. Most DCF valuations I have seen are ostensibly a whole bunch of guesses clobbered together with a wild guess on the terminal growth rate clobbered together into a discounting model.

Forward PE was about the same,30, when Geoff Babbage was running the company and it was growing eps at several times the forecast rate for FY20.
Lower forecast eps growth for the foreseeable future says to me the PE needs to come down to a more realistic level in my book.

Time, as usual will tell.

Beagle me old mate - think about what you said through

A PE ratio is ostensibly a DCF in disguise or as they say in the trade ‘a lazy man’s DCF’

When you come up with what you assess a ‘fair’ PE for A2 to be it means you the one who is making ‘a whole bunch of guesses clobbered together with a wild guess on the terminal growth rate clobbered together into a discounting model.’

[Balance]

Observation - when posters start arguing about PER and how it is irrelevant etc, hope has taken over from greed as a driver of the stock sp.

Me? I think that the 'new' CEO is guiding the market towards lower growth and profit (than market) expectations and analysts are reacting accordingly to the 'guidance' by recommending a more cautious approach.

If she does a good job of massaging the guidance so that A2M always over-deliver on market expectations, the stock will be rewarded with a high PER.

One thing A2M can not afford is to not meet market expectations again - if it does, the sp will be down below $10 in no time.