ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Balance]

I am still a shareholder, Beagle - which is why I keep a close eye and watching brief on ATM.

I must say I am ready to hit the 'sell' button on the remaining shares I hold if the ASM does not deliver good news - ie. overall profit up as increased sales offset reduced margins.

Meanwhile, it is definitely noticeable that some of the posters here are searching for only positive affirmation of their views, rather than objectively assessing developments and information (positive and negative) as they flow through. Dangerous!

[Beagle]

Whatever you want to tell yourself that makes your pain more tolerable Couta1.

Agree Balance. I can't be objective once I go over a 10% portfolio allocation to any one stock in any company and its perfectly obvious that I am not the only one !!

Confirmation bias on this thread is absolutely rampant !! (hence my reference to a "blinkered approach").

[mfd]

For mine, shorters, bots and analysts may have some effect on the share price volatility on a day to day basis but this has been considerably less volatile in recent months than it used to be so all the talk that these people are the villain's for the current funk this company is in, look like desperate straw grabbing to me.
The real story is the rising competition, reducing margins and much slower eps growth. The back story is the way Jayne is spending with reckless abandon and until we see some concrete evidence that the massive ramp up in marketing and personnel spend is going to generate sales performance ahead of the current market consensus then no amount of derisory comments about other market participants will help.

The company isn't in a funk, everything is ticking along nicely. The incredible growth of the last few years obvious can't continue forever, now it'll be slower progress as you would expect. The company is making huge money in China and sitting on a big cash pile which is being put to work in growing the next big market - the US. The share price can bounce around how it likes, give it a couple of years and if the plan in America goes well I'm sure we'll be well rewarded. Let's just hope we get that far before the company is taken over.

[couta1]

The company isn't in a funk, everything is ticking along nicely. The incredible growth of the last few years obvious can't continue forever, now it'll be slower progress as you would expect. The company is making huge money in China and sitting on a big cash pile which is being put to work in growing the next big market - the US. The share price can bounce around how it likes, give it a couple of years and if the plan in America goes well I'm sure we'll be well rewarded. Let's just hope we get that far before the company is taken over.

With the gross manipulation a takeover is a real possibility, that's what happened to BAL and many other ASX companies subject to these tactics but I'm certainly hoping that wont happen as this stock will eventually be worth many times it's current price in the fullness of time.

[Beagle]

The company isn't in a funk, everything is ticking along nicely. The incredible growth of the last few years obvious can't continue forever, now it'll be slower progress as you would expect. The company is making huge money in China and sitting on a big cash pile which is being put to work in growing the next big market - the US. The share price can bounce around how it likes, give it a couple of years and if the plan in America goes well I'm sure we'll be well rewarded. Let's just hope we get that far before the company is taken over.

Was $14.70 in February 2018. Was $18 a few months ago and is now in a very clear downtrend. If that's not a funk then I'm not sure what is...

[Balance]

The company isn't in a funk, everything is ticking along nicely. The incredible growth of the last few years obvious can't continue forever, now it'll be slower progress as you would expect. The company is making huge money in China and sitting on a big cash pile which is being put to work in growing the next big market - the US. The share price can bounce around how it likes, give it a couple of years and if the plan in America goes well I'm sure we'll be well rewarded. Let's just hope we get that far before the company is taken over.

ATM is a great success story but not everything is ticking along nicely - admitted as much by Jayne that the low hanging fruits and easy gains are over. I am actually very glad and pleased that Jayne acknowledged the challenges ahead and are proactively taking steps to take ATM to the next level. And it's great that ATM has the hundreds of millions of dollars in reserve to do it.

I am not one to assume however that she is going to be successful just because she acknowledges the issue - proof is going to be required and we will have our first indication at the ASM.

Having failed to meet expectations in F2019, ATM simply cannot risk not meeting expectations again. The sp will get smashed.

I am not as brave as some of you are - to see nothing but positivity everywhere!

[mfd]

Was $14.70 in February 2018. Was $18 a few months ago and is now in a very clear downtrend. If that's not a funk then I'm not sure what is...

The company cannot be blamed for the market getting over excited. A year ago the SP was 10.50. Two years ago when I bought my last package it was around 8 dollars. 5 years ago when I bought my first shares it was around 60c. We'll see what future results bring, but I have no problems with the company performance as yet.

[couta1]

It's all about where you see the sp 5 yrs from now, the answer to that question moulds and forms your outlook, when XRO went down to $12 from $45 there is no way I could even dream that it would ever get back to $45 let alone $80 but some did.

[tomm]

Was $14.70 in February 2018. Was $18 a few months ago and is now in a very clear downtrend. If that's not a funk then I'm not sure what is...

The argue is about , what is it new lowest trend? and from there how far can it go up when a positive news come out ( AGM). The lowest handle was $12.80 , and has been pushed down not by Trump nor by the economy or Hongkong.
and today it is hover at around $12.50. This stock is very volatile as the Big Boys know when to harvest.
Look at 12 months ago it was at $10.20 and with in 10 months it break it's own record $18.04 which gained approx 76% and yes it can goes down as much as it can go up as long as the products are a in a good trend and gain the global knowledges, the next lowest handle next year would be around $14.50 by then it should again already broke another record with SP at approx $19.20 IMHO.
Unless A2 Milk miss the target then we can see the handle $10.20 appear, but we will see with in a week by then

[Balance]

The argue is about , what is it new lowest trend? and from there how far can it go up when a positive news come out ( AGM). The lowest handle was $12.80 , and has been pushed down not by Trump nor by the economy or Hongkong.
and today it is hover at around $12.50. This stock is very volatile as the Big Boys know when to harvest.
Look at 12 months ago it was at $10.20 and with in 10 months it break it's own record $18.04 which gained approx 76% and yes it can goes down as much as it can go up as long as the products are healthy and gain the global knowledges, the next lowest handle next year would be around $14.50 by then it should again already broke another record with SP at approx $19.20 IMHO.
Unless A2 Milk miss the target then we can see the handle $10.20 appear, but we will see by then

Careful about keeping the faith and keeping your confirmation bias, tomm.