ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[couta1]

Whatever you want to tell yourself that makes your pain more tolerable Couta1.

Agree Balance. I can't be objective once I go over a 10% portfolio allocation to any one stock in any company and its perfectly obvious that I am not the only one !!

Confirmation bias on this thread is absolutely rampant !! (hence my reference to a "blinkered approach").

Yet continuing to poke a bear with a stick is unwise yet you continue to do it, over at Hotcopper you know what name you would be called as a non holder.

[Beagle]

It's all about where you see the sp 5 yrs from now, the answer to that question moulds and forms your outlook, when XRO went down to $12 from $45 there is no way I could even dream that it would ever get back to $45 let alone $80 but some did.

You keep comparing ATM and XRO as though in some way that validates your aspirations for some future astronomical price. In my opinion its a completely invalid and illogical comparison. One is a SAAS company and the other a commodity manufacturer. Once people are up and running on XRO the company can continue to supply monthly services at almost zero cost, whereas ATM's margins are scarcely 30%. I'm not going to try and value XRO or understand its valuation but neither am I silly enough to compare apples and grass...anyway i'll leave you alone till after the annual meeting because this is all getting a little too "cult like" for my liking.

[Balance]

Yet continuing to poke a bear with a stick is unwise yet you continue to do it, over at Hotcopper you know what name you would be called as a non holder.

Come on, guys - time to back off.

Let's not do a PEB on ATM, and haul insinuations and motivations.

ATM is a great stock and great success story - the issue is what price one would pay, given one's own view of where things are likely to play out.

[couta1]

Haha cult like sounds like SUM other thread I know. PS-Im not comparing XRO and A2 on a like for like basis but rather on a visionary/possibility basis.

[sb9]

Come on, guys - time to back off.

Let's not do a PEB on ATM, and haul insinuations and motivations.

ATM is a great stock and great success story - the issue is what price one would pay, given one's own view of where things are likely to play out.

Well said, everyone needs to take a chill pill and take a deep relaxed breath. Its all very well to have differing opinions and in the end company's performance will speak for itself. Just take it easy...

[Blue Skies]

Just a few words of caution.
Frequent mention here, of US market being the next big thing seems to ignore the fact that while populations of East Asian descent can have a degree of lactose intolerance as high as 90%, in populations of North European descent e.g. the U.S. the degree of lactose intolerance can be as low as 5%.
I wouldn't therefore be relying too heavily on A2 smashing the US market.

Also worth consideration, U.S. farmers are not only trusted suppliers but also a v powerful lobby group.

[mfd]

Come on, guys - time to back off.

Let's not do a PEB on ATM, and haul insinuations and motivations.

ATM is a great stock and great success story - the issue is what price one would pay, given one's own view of where things are likely to play out.

Agreed, no problem with negative opinions being posted - that's the point of the forum. I'm not going to argue the company is risk free, there are plenty of things which could go wrong, it's up to each of us to weigh the risks against the opportunities. Personally I'm happy to leave 10% of my portfolio in ATM for now while we see how it plays out.

[mfd]

Just a few words of caution.
Frequent mention here, of US market being the next big thing seems to ignore the fact that while populations of East Asian descent can have a degree of lactose intolerance as high as 90%, in populations of North European descent e.g. the U.S. the degree of lactose intolerance can be as low as 5%.
I wouldn't therefore be relying too heavily on A2 smashing the US market.

Also worth consideration, U.S. farmers are not only trusted suppliers but also a v powerful lobby group.

Are the demographics of the US that dissimilar to Australia? That's their only current significant fresh milk market, they are up to about an 11% market share now. The US is currently primarily a fresh milk play, not IF like China. Also, lactose intolerance is not relevant - A2 deals with intolerance to the A1 protein but still contains lactose.

[Oberon]

I am not one to assume however that she is going to be successful just because she acknowledges the issue - proof is going to be required and we will have our first indication at the ASM.

Having failed to meet expectations in F2019, ATM simply cannot risk not meeting expectations again. The sp will get smashed.

I am not as brave as some of you are - to see nothing but positivity everywhere!

I sincerely hope for the sake of my portfolio and sanity they don't drop the ball next Tuesday. As I've said several times over at HC, they need to knock it out of the ballpark at the AGM. If not, it's going to be increasingly challenging for the eternal optimists to hold their heads up in the face of the increased adversity the company and SP is facing. Things seem to be getting a little heated as we wait with baited breath for the AGM; right now none of us know how this is going to play out.

[Beagle]

You can lead a horse to water...nuff said.