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14-01-2020, 10:12 AM
#15321
Originally Posted by couta1
Yep end of Feb, early march $17 is possible, this stock can move quickly in both directions as you know, you wouldn't have a SUMwhat objective problem yourself at times now would you. Lol
LOL I keep individual stocks to under 10% so have a SUMwhat higher chance of trying to stay objective
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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14-01-2020, 01:29 PM
#15322
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M
12m shorted shares covered since 11 December 2019 - would have expected the sp to hold steady with that kind of buying but sp has actually been slipping a little.
Relatively low turnover in shares traded today (429k shares only so far on ASX) - suggest market is going to break out but in which direction!
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14-01-2020, 01:58 PM
#15323
Originally Posted by Balance
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=A2M
12m shorted shares covered since 11 December 2019 - would have expected the sp to hold steady with that kind of buying but sp has actually been slipping a little.
Relatively low turnover in shares traded today (429k shares only so far on ASX) - suggest market is going to break out but in which direction!
With it entering oversold territory and a result just around the corner the direction is obvious, low volume boredom selling soon to come to an end.
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14-01-2020, 02:09 PM
#15324
Member
Originally Posted by couta1
With it entering oversold territory and a result just around the corner the direction is obvious, low volume boredom selling soon to come to an end.
It would be good to see a different direction other than sideways for the last 6 months - but with a caretaker CEO despite his pedigree im hoping this stock doesnt turn in to a drift car for 2020.
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14-01-2020, 02:15 PM
#15325
Originally Posted by dompf
It would be good to see a different direction other than sideways for the last 6 months - but with a caretaker CEO despite his pedigree im hoping this stock doesnt turn in to a drift car for 2020.
Manipulation pattern very much in play last couple of days even at low volume, I can smell it a mile off.
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14-01-2020, 05:15 PM
#15326
As per my prior post. If you look at the guidance for 1H its actually reasonable. Say they reach 800$mil - the amount required in 2H is actually extremely reasonable to beat last years FY result.
Historically 2H has always been better than 1H. I think it's reasonable to assume that will be the case this time to, as it has been for the past 3 years. It therefore isn't unreasonable to assume that the FY revenue will be 1.6 +/- 0.2 ..
Obviously I could be wrong, but statistically I think I'm not making a horribly gross projection.
ATM demonstrates clear gap phenomenon on report announcements. I think the shareprice was a safe buy around 12-13$. The liklihood of the interim and the full year report being worse than last year is extremely low unless a one off occurs.
Last edited by Cadalac123; 14-01-2020 at 05:16 PM.
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14-01-2020, 05:20 PM
#15327
Originally Posted by Cadalac123
As per my prior post. If you look at the guidance for 1H its actually reasonable. Say they reach 800$mil - the amount required in 2H is actually extremely reasonable to beat last years FY result.
Historically 2H has always been better than 1H. I think it's reasonable to assume that will be the case this time to, as it has been for the past 3 years. It therefore isn't unreasonable to assume that the FY revenue will be 1.6 +/- 0.2 ..
Obviously I could be wrong, but statistically I think I'm not making a horribly gross projection.
ATM demonstrates clear gap phenomenon on report announcements. I think the shareprice was a safe buy around 12-13$. The liklihood of the interim and the full year report being worse than last year is extremely low unless a one off occurs.
Result will be at least good, current price is still cheap IMO but as always a lot of weak hands are easily shaken out of this stock(Holders with no real vision or conviction) PS-This ain't no hyped up tech company making little or zero profit.
Last edited by couta1; 14-01-2020 at 05:22 PM.
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14-01-2020, 06:20 PM
#15328
Cadalac - not suggesting ebitda will be less than last year (H1 and FY)
But it won’t be anything like the 40% growth we have been used to.
H1 ebitda likely to be +15% on last year ...ouch for a super growth company
Full year +15% to +20% —- as Couts says ‘at least good’ but to some ‘not very good’
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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14-01-2020, 06:26 PM
#15329
Member
Originally Posted by Cadalac123
As per my prior post. If you look at the guidance for 1H its actually reasonable. Say they reach 800$mil - the amount required in 2H is actually extremely reasonable to beat last years FY result.
Historically 2H has always been better than 1H. I think it's reasonable to assume that will be the case this time to, as it has been for the past 3 years. It therefore isn't unreasonable to assume that the FY revenue will be 1.6 +/- 0.2 ..
Obviously I could be wrong, but statistically I think I'm not making a horribly gross projection.
ATM demonstrates clear gap phenomenon on report announcements. I think the shareprice was a safe buy around 12-13$. The liklihood of the interim and the full year report being worse than last year is extremely low unless a one off occurs.
The "one off" could be the severance package for the former CEO ?
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14-01-2020, 06:29 PM
#15330
Originally Posted by couta1
Result will be at least good, current price is still cheap IMO but as always a lot of weak hands are easily shaken out of this stock(Holders with no real vision or conviction) PS-This ain't no hyped up tech company making little or zero profit.
"Weak hands" spell opportunity?
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