ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Cadalac123]

I mean how much could they really pay her? lets say 20m, still okay I guess.
I mean we are all guessing here, but I feel its just as easy to be pessimistic of growth
as it is to be hopeful for it.

[Lewylewylewy]

I guess the questions are, what sort of pe covers +15% growth, what will be the projections in the next announcement and will people believe them (and therefore what will the forward pe be)?

[Balance]

https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-tr...eparts--200113

Market is certainly taking note of key executive departures from ATM in recent times.

[Snow Leopard]

I guess the questions are, what sort of pe covers +15% growth, what will be the projections in the next announcement and will people believe them (and therefore what will the forward pe be)?

Assuming a steady 15% pa growth and no dividend then the answer is 17.7.

This is basic theory stuff but the market never gives a stuff for theory.

[couta1]

https://www.ig.com/en-ch/news-and-tr...eparts--200113

Market is certainly taking note of key executive departures from ATM in recent times.

People will see what they want to see, removing dead wood is the starting place in any pruning job and that started with the removal of Calamity Jayne.

[Lewylewylewy]

Assuming a steady 15% pa growth and no dividend then the answer is 17.7.

This is basic theory stuff but the market never gives a stuff for theory.

If that's the case, the SP could be getting close to $8, assuming the market follows this pe and suspects similar yearly growth.

Probably this won't happen.

Probably that market will be promised higher growth and the wind will be behind the sails, and the pe will be higher, and we'll see $17 (same pe and expectations but from the +15% position).

Though, tbh, i think next year I'll be putting my money elsewhere. Great product, just a bit random for me atm.

[couta1]

If that's the case, the SP could be getting close to $8, assuming the market follows this pe and suspects similar yearly growth.

Probably this won't happen.

Probably that market will be promised higher growth and the wind will be behind the sails, and the pe will be higher, and we'll see $17 (same pe and expectations but from the +15% position).

Though, tbh, i think next year I'll be putting my money elsewhere. Great product, just a bit random for me atm.

Actually no that $8 figure is nonsense, check out the Danone sp which has a pe of around 15.

[Lewylewylewy]

Actually no that $8 figure is nonsense, check out the Danone sp which has a pe of around 15.

Sorry im confused. Isn't danone a different company? Or are you saying it could get rerated to a pe of 15?

Looking at the last announcement in November... the one that starts with management's names each printed separately on a page with a picture of kids as the background... that's the one with jaynes name on the 3rd page, and the kids on her page are laughing and waving goodbye (which really should have been a clue, looking back)... they say basic earnings per share of 39.3c. Add 15% for the year, makes 45.2c, times 17.7 makes $8. I know it's rough and sloppy, but it's just a hypothetical guess based on the 15% growth that's being batted around on this site.

Anyway, my point wasn't to do any predictions. My point was to highlight that hypothetically, if they have continued performance below expectations it could mean a rerate if the market stops believing Outlook statements.

As I think I said, my prediction is also $17.

[Ggcc]

Sorry im confused. Isn't danone a different company? Or are you saying it could get rerated to a pe of 15?

Looking at the last announcement in November... the one that starts with management's names each printed separately on a page with a picture of kids as the background... that's the one with jaynes name on the 3rd page, and the kids on her page are laughing and waving goodbye (which really should have been a clue, looking back)... they say basic earnings per share of 39.3c. Add 15% for the year, makes 45.2c, times 17.7 makes $8. I know it's rough and sloppy, but it's just a hypothetical guess based on the 15% growth that's being batted around on this site.

Anyway, my point wasn't to do any predictions. My point was to highlight that hypothetically, if they have continued performance below expectations it could mean a rerate if the market stops believing Outlook statements.

As I think I said, my prediction is also $17.

I would say that if you are only looking at PE ratios FPH would also need a cheaper share price, although it is a very solid company. A2 could become that solid company if SML get through their court case, if the CEO did not leave so abruptly and if people started to believe the story. If those things were not in the foreseeable future ATM is a very solid company and could demand a premium on the share price. We will look back in a few years and wonder who the heck was Jayne and look at a glorious share price.........

[couta1]

Sorry im confused. Isn't danone a different company? Or are you saying it could get rerated to a pe of 15?

Looking at the last announcement in November... the one that starts with management's names each printed separately on a page with a picture of kids as the background... that's the one with jaynes name on the 3rd page, and the kids on her page are laughing and waving goodbye (which really should have been a clue, looking back)... they say basic earnings per share of 39.3c. Add 15% for the year, makes 45.2c, times 17.7 makes $8. I know it's rough and sloppy, but it's just a hypothetical guess based on the 15% growth that's being batted around on this site.

Anyway, my point wasn't to do any predictions. My point was to highlight that hypothetically, if they have continued performance below expectations it could mean a rerate if the market stops believing Outlook statements.

As I think I said, my prediction is also $17.

My point being that just because a company matures and has less growth and a lower pe doesnt mean the sp is not going to continue to increase especially once a dividend is initiated.