If you do a little research you will find Tomms story is not uncommon. There is a strong epidemiological link between A1 milk consumption and autism (as well as heart disease, diabetes and other diseases) which does not exist for A2 milk. Studies have found an A1 and gluten free diet can relieve symptoms of autism.
Oh no i don't disbelieve, i do believe what he has said.
Oh no i don't disbelieve, i do believe what he has said.
I was bored just had a troll urge i think!
No worries, my mistake. I think the research is generally not well known as the company hasn't really needed to push it far to get all the growth they can handle. There's enough evidence that I expect in a decade or two there will be very little A1 milk left in the world, and we'll all be healthier for it.
Ray Dallio is betting heavily on massive Chinese economic growth, am sure if their economy grows it will be "nothing but the best" for all those "little emperor" kids - I can wait
Clearly the growth rate is slowing. Average analyst forecast, (and this stock has very wide analyst coverage), is for eps growth for the next three years of 17%, 18% and just 14%. From today's investor presentation
Current observations
• Unwind of 3Q20 pantry stocking in the early part of FY21
• Softness in retail daigou continuing due to reduced tourism from China and international student numbers
• Some disruption being seen in the corporate daigou / reseller channel resulting from Stage 4 lockdown in Victoria
Market falling out of love with this mature stock now its growth rate is clearly slowing to quite a material degree ?
I wouldn't get "over my ski's" on this one as the distinct possibility of a bad fall on your face straight into hard ice clearly exists. (Fell on my bum last year on hard ice skiing with Couta1 and even though my backside is very well "padded" it really hurt !)
Forward PE based on average analyst forecast of 61 cps next year @ $18 is 1800 / 61 = 29.5
Has been trading on a similar forward PE in years past when it was growing much faster than its forecast too now.
Some people appear to be implying this is dirt cheap and a massive oversized position is warranted. Sorry but whether they are a friend or not it is overdue that someone posts a rational response.
I don't see it. This looks fully priced to me at $18 for the current modest growth rate. Clearly there's a case for a modest position as part of a well diversified portfolio but I'm not seeing the "amazing" opportunity here some others seem to think there is.
With average growth in eps expected for the next three years of 16.3% I think if the forward PE came down to (no growth PE of 11.5 + 1g =16.3) = 27.8.
27.8 x 61 = @$16.95 the shares might be worthwhile accumulating a modest stake as part of a very well diversified portfolio.
Last edited by Beagle; 09-09-2020 at 02:51 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Originally Posted by mfd
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