ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[jimdog31]

Does any senior members have any graphs or data on yearly changes to institutional investment levels? ie what % was owned by institutions 2017,2018,2019,2020. I buy into the "shaking the tree" theory but i feel like if you could demonstrate that year on year its increasing that would put my mind and many LTH's mind at ease

[BlackPeter]

Does any senior members have any graphs or data on yearly changes to institutional investment levels? ie what % was owned by institutions 2017,2018,2019,2020. I buy into the "shaking the tree" theory but i feel like if you could demonstrate that year on year its increasing that would put my mind and many LTH's mind at ease

Assuming you are talking about the institutional investment levels at A2? Why don't you just pull out the relevant annual reports, do the numbers yourself and report back?

[jimdog31]

Assuming you are talking about the institutional investment levels at A2? Why don't you just pull out the relevant annual reports, do the numbers yourself and report back?

Thanks for the tip, however the annual report is only the top 20 largest holders so not all institutional holders Id guess?

63.66% 457,109,300 1 august 17
65.92% 481,337,466 1 August 18
73.20% 538,061,522 1 August 19
74.90% 554,182,113 1 August 20

[Beagle]

Nice pretty charts Gerald.
The fact remains that ATM's share price is only up 39.5% since I sold out in March 2018 and there have been no dividends since then.
The Fact remains that this has underperformed the index since then which is up just over 40%.
I would love to post how much my portfolio is up since March 2018 and especially how much its up since March 2017 but that sort of information is not for public knowledge so you'll just have to take my word for it that I am very happy with how my stash of dog bones is growing.

[couta1]

Thanks for the tip, however the annual report is only the top 20 largest holders so not all institutional holders Id guess?

63.66% 457,109,300 1 august 17
65.92% 481,337,466 1 August 18
73.20% 538,061,522 1 August 19
74.90% 554,182,113 1 August 20

Looks about right, so institutional holdings are increasing at the expense of weak retail hands.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks for the tip, however the annual report is only the top 20 largest holders so not all institutional holders Id guess?

63.66% 457,109,300 1 august 17
65.92% 481,337,466 1 August 18
73.20% 538,061,522 1 August 19
74.90% 554,182,113 1 August 20

Cheers for coming back : Given that you've been only interested in the trend am I sure that these numbers are good enough.

[clearasmud]

Nice pretty charts Gerald.
The fact remains that ATM's share price is only up 39.5% since I sold out in March 2018 and there have been no dividends since then.
The Fact remains that this has underperformed the index since then which is up just over 40%.
I would love to post how much my portfolio is up since March 2018 and especially how much its up since March 2017 but that sort of information is not for public knowledge so you'll just have to take my word for it that I am very happy with how my stash of dog bones is growing.

Well done Beagle but remember the index is a gross index so Atm has outperformed the capital index plus net dividends.

[Beagle]

Yeah...I finally got a well thought through response, (by email from a former member) to the question I posed - Has the growth rate slowed ?
Good Afternoon Roger,

Hope you are doing well and that the dog bone pile continues to climb.

I see the STers are avoiding your question. I tend to concur with you that the best days of growth are over and that ATM is going to be seeing quite a bit of slower growth. The main points the STers are not talking about (as usually, gloss over the negatives...):

Daigou market is most definitely slowing - QEX, Blackmores and Bubs have all stated this. It is not an isolated incident, but a macro factor now - and it is huge.
A2 knew the golden days wouldn't last forever and started transitioning to stores within China for selling product. Unfortunately, it takes plenty of time to turn the boat, and COIVD ensured the golden goose dried up before they managed to complete the transition (still a few years away imho).

The Law of Larger Numbers ensures A2 will never be the same beast that it was. a $13B mcap company is a much different proposition to a $1B one. With ~8% share of the cash cow Chinese IF market they will be bumping up against major competition, with the easiest fruit now well plucked. Growth in fresh milk, as evidenced in the past in the UK, will NEVER have the same margins IF has, even if it is in the gigantic US market. Milk consumption is declining anyways, but that is a different sidetrack here (and I am biased as an almond/soy milk drinker)...

All people are naturally hard-wired to accept or like ANY sort of change. Fact is, A2 is transitioning from a high-growth, awesome margin company to one of consolidation and slower growth. Headwinds are a-plenty, and the company will have to fight much harder to ensure to maintain margins and market share. That means multiples will be lower, some will sell out in resignation, but that many others will still hold on for dear life, come hell or highwater trying to maintain the illusion of a growth story.

In the end, with very cheap and very easy debt visible for the next few years at least a la post-GFC, this Moose would say a PE of around 23-25 would be appropriate for a 15-20% growth rate company with oodles of cash. I don't see much upside from $20 NZD and there are better opportunities out there, long term. Short-term, will be a great trading stock, as always.

The https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...RST&ajaxhist=0 has spoken.

I edited a little bit of it out that was a comment about one member that its probably best isn't repeated on here.

[jimdog31]

Cheers for coming back : Given that you've been only interested in the trend am I sure that these numbers are good enough.

Forgive me I feel the below shows the trend more accurately.

100,001 shares or more

No of holders 290 571,102,053 1 august 17
No of holders 232 575,517,122 1 august 18
No of holders 191 618,338,672 1 august 19
No of holders 142 643,520,013 1 august 20

I'm relatively new to investing, but that feels like proof of tree shaking YOY.

Less holders, holding more shares. What will 1 Aug 2021 look like? I bet you Citi have more shares then.

[Dotbond]

Great explanation. Cheers