ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Muppett]

I must admit I didn't see that one coming, but no reason to lose faith. Its going to get smashed today, top up time perhaps?

The Directors and management knew. That's why they were selling off recently post results.

[bull....]

The Directors and management knew. That's why they were selling off recently post results.

everyone in the know was as it was probably obvious to them the covid demand spike was going to be a temporary thing , and then people were shorting as well 20 million shorts put on since results .... lets get ready for hammer time

[sb9]

Sobering update from ATM. Good day for shorters.

FY21 sales likely to be short of the previously signalled 20% increase.....perhaps 10%?

Rocky times ahead for holders.

For sure, a rare downgrade in their unchequered history of under promise and over deliver...

[Muppett]

For sure, a rare downgrade in their unchequered history of under promise and over deliver...

This is not the first time Babbage has done this after he had sold off. His timing is impeccable as always.
He even did it just before "retiring".

[bull....]

the asx open might be savage they tend to maul profit downgrades big time

[850man]

the asx open might be savage they tend to maul profit downgrades big time

Savage might be an understatement - -11% out of the blocks this am! Weak hands?

[winner69]

This is not the first time Babbage has done this after he had sold off. His timing is impeccable as always.
He even did it just before "retiring".

Big mistake putting him back ...should have left him in the retirement paddock

[tomm]

Topping up opportunities. Things are still up. Please sell....The Ausie will scoop it up. No worries

Notwithstanding the significant uncertainty and volatility in market

conditions as a result of COVID-19 we have determined it appropriate to

provide an update to our outlook to include our view of Group revenue as

follows:

- Group revenue for 1H21 of $725 million to $775 million

- Group revenue for FY21 of $1.80 billion to $1.90 billion

- Group EBITDA margin for FY21 in the order of 31%.

It should be noted that the sale of infant formula through the daigou channel

is only one component of our multi-channel and multi-product sales strategy

into China. Our growth plan assumes MBS and CBEC sales will represent an

increasing proportion of our infant nutrition business over time, driven by

the continuing growth in underlying consumer demand.

[Beagle]

Sobering update from ATM. Good day for shorters.

FY21 sales likely to be short of the previously signalled 20% increase.....perhaps 10%?

Rocky times ahead for holders.

Oh dear...sales for the first half are now forecast to be below last year !!
Sales at the mid point now forecast to grow for the year at just 6.8% and all of that is "hoped for" in the second half.
Some people sniffed out trouble well ahead before it was announced. It would seem their nose for a feed AND for trouble coming is still working well.
From market screener, average analyst revenue forecast was $2.075m and EBITDA margin was 31% so the new forecast at the mid point of $1.850m is 11% below that.

The real question is will the market correct more than 11% to account for the slower growth and ascribe this a lower PE ?
The significant market underperformance since March 2018 when I sold out continues... I have no idea why anyone would hold an outsize position in this company anymore. Growth has been slowing down for years.

Aussies could give this a real belting when they open...but what would I know...

[longy]

Big mistake putting him back ...should have left him in the retirement paddock

That is a bit harsh...