ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Arbroath]

Who believes this will be the only downgrade. A2 is a very good company but I reckon that H2 forecast looks pretty aggressive and there will likely be more average news the next 6 months and maybe a pullback to $10-$12. I don't own so might be being hopeful of a nice entry point longer term but companies very very rarely have one downgrade...

[Beagle]

Who believes this will be the only downgrade. A2 is a very good company but I reckon that H2 forecast looks pretty aggressive and there will likely be more average news the next 6 months and maybe a pullback to $10-$12. I don't own so might be being hopeful of a nice entry point longer term but companies very very rarely have one downgrade...

Balance reckons downgrades always come in 3's !
I agree, 2H sales forecast looks "hopeful" to me.

[bull....]

Who believes this will be the only downgrade. A2 is a very good company but I reckon that H2 forecast looks pretty aggressive and there will likely be more average news the next 6 months and maybe a pullback to $10-$12. I don't own so might be being hopeful of a nice entry point longer term but companies very very rarely have one downgrade...

agree totally

[Getty]

It's not just MF.....

Goldman Sachs is forecasting earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of NZ$662 million in FY 2021. This will be a 19.9% increase on FY 2020’s EBITDA of NZ$552 million.

On the bottom line, it has penciled in earnings per share of NZ$0.63, up 20% from NZ$0.524 a year earlier.
In light of this growth and the recent pullback in the a2 Milk share price, Goldman thinks the company is trading at a very attractive level.
It explained: “ATM is (currently) trading at an FY21 P/E of 17.9X, a 6% premium to the market compared to its five-year average of a 50% premium.”

On top of that GS projected 20% revenue increase for FY21 is conservative IMHO. I estimate a 25% increase.

As Cgcc points out, it is all about the longer term and ATM outperforming the NZX50 average.

ATM's record in this respect for the last 5 yrs is impeccable. (NZX 50 up about 100%, while ATM up 2400%....NZX is the black line at the foot of this graph.)

Attachment 11969

Look's like we cant rely on Motley Fool or GS.

Where, or who to next?

[JeremyALD]

They still are generating heaps of cash and have a very attractive market position.

It seems fairly priced around these levels, but lets see what aussie brings. Imagine $15nzd is a possibility end of day.

[bull....]

They still are generating heaps of cash and have a very attractive market position.

It seems fairly priced around these levels, but lets see what aussie brings. Imagine $15nzd is a possibility end of day.

be a sustained re- rating now. must also remember the chinese govt is promoting domestic owned companies big time now

[flyinglizard]

Topping up opportunities. Things are still up. Please sell....The Ausie will scoop it up. No worries

Notwithstanding the significant uncertainty and volatility in market

conditions as a result of COVID-19 we have determined it appropriate to

provide an update to our outlook to include our view of Group revenue as

follows:

- Group revenue for 1H21 of $725 million to $775 million

- Group revenue for FY21 of $1.80 billion to $1.90 billion

- Group EBITDA margin for FY21 in the order of 31%.

It should be noted that the sale of infant formula through the daigou channel

is only one component of our multi-channel and multi-product sales strategy

into China. Our growth plan assumes MBS and CBEC sales will represent an

increasing proportion of our infant nutrition business over time, driven by

the continuing growth in underlying consumer demand.

I would like to see how they start growth stage 2, (stage 1 clearly completed, establishment of brand name)

- playing with Chinese online giants, Dj.com, Taobao and T-mall

- SEM

- live delivery ( popular way nowadays, an internet celebrity can sell millions $ just within 10-15 mins)

- some supermarket distribution channel

Those channels are far more bigger than Daigou private channel.

[jonu]

Obviously plenty on here hoping for more juicy drops so they can buy in. Beware of their motivations before you listen too closely folks!

[flyinglizard]

After ASX opens, A2 will have its final hit, then it is the best time to sneak into the show.

[bull....]

hammertime big portfolio sells will come out during the week