ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[flyinglizard]

Thinks of A2 recently three-year sp movement pattern ( down during Q1, then slowly up during Q2, Q3), that could be caused by consumer behaviour.

Q1 in China is summer, most of areas are over 40 degree, super hot. Two reasons that they may buy less dairy products during this season.

- Babies drink less warm milk than other season. Human nature, just too hot.
- Chinese parents worry about of the storage of infant milk powder under high temperature, that may have negative impact on the quality of milk products. This has not been approved by scientists though.
- Sales always surge from the mid of Oct.

The facts are confirmed by two Daigou Shops, the sales of health supplementary products also show the same seasonal pattern.

[couta1]

Obviously plenty on here hoping for more juicy drops so they can buy in. Beware of their motivations before you listen too closely folks!

Yes indeed, you can trust some of these individuals about as much as a bull in a china shop.

[dreamcatcher]

- Sales always surge from the mid of Oct.

The facts are confirmed by two Daigou Shops, the sales of health supplementary products also show the same seasonal pattern.

Question - Why does sales always surge in mid Oct

Answer - Stockpiling for US $38 Billion 11/11 Singles Day Shopping Extravaganza then 12/12 known as Double12 Shopping Extravagaza finally Chinese New Year

[LEMON]

I dunno what the big panic is. It's still a solid company with future growths.

Think today just proves how scared everyone gets when they look for the market reaction rather than the simple straightforward announcement for the company they have invested in.

The market never plays ball so why get your panties in a twist. Even if A2 is a slow-growth company it's still a growth company with much more areas to expand in the future.

[Baa_Baa]

Yes indeed, you can trust some of these individuals about as much as a bull in a china shop.

You can criticise those who choose to stand on the sidelines and wait for inevitable price weakness, which ATM has consistently offered?

Or wait and buy that weakness. The market is dynamic, it has no Emotion, we can only choose when we buy or sell. Whether we do or not doesn’t define us.

[flyinglizard]

Question - Why does sales always surge in mid Oct

Answer - Stockpiling for US $38 Billion 11/11 Singles Day Shopping Extravaganza then 12/12 known as Double12 Shopping Extravagaza finally Chinese New Year

Exactly! The shipping and Chinese customs clearance during Jan-Feb are extremely slow. Daigou said that their customers purchase double or triple amount every Oct and Nov, making sure their babies have enough to be fed till early of next Mar. Sounds logical.

[dreamcatcher]

Exactly! The shipping and Chinese customs clearance during Jan-Feb are extremely slow. Daigou said that their customers purchase double or triple amount every Oct and Nov, making sure their babies have enough to be fed till early of next Mar. Sounds logical.

NO.... (11/11) 11th Nov is Alibaba's $38 Billion Dollar 24hr Singles Shopping Extravaganza ............as 12/12

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-11-1...AU8/index.html

[Beagle]

49m shares shorted as at last update.

Guess there’s some short coverings today to lock in gains.

Be fascinating after the analysts have had a chat with the company, what updated numbers and recommendations they will be coming out with in the next few days given the sp is already way down on its peak in August.

Down more than 20% from the peak but is that enough given the quite significant change in outlook ?
Sure will be mate. What's the bet there's a few analysts with some questions of how in August 2020 the talk was of strong growth, then directors sell and now in Sept 2020 they're talking weak growth. What's the next update, no growth ?

[nztx]

Is what we are seeing a repeat of factors playing out similar to last year ?

Aug through Nov 2019 saw a retreat

Any guesses on the 'bottom' given modified 2020 economic factors present now ?

[Motley Crew]

As one of the top 100 holders I will be selling no shares other than to buy more back cheaper, no one and I mean absolutely no one will shake me out of this holding and I can be an incredibly determined person who knows how to get through tough times. PS-87% of the company is owned by big and bigger fish and only 13% by reef fish which includes shorters, who has the firepower to win in the end?

Absolutely correct. This is a long term growth stock, not a short term trading stock. Anyone buying it for the latter will inevitably get their fingers burnt. While the SP will likely continue to drift off until the value proposition returns, this is still one of the best companies on the NZX for future returns. Take a look at the SP chart over the last 2 years - 2018 hit $14, fell 36% to $9. Then 100% gain to $18 in 2019 before 32% fall to $12.25. Then 76% gain to $21.50 before current retreat. Each of these retreats presents a great buying opportunity to top up and ride the next wave up. If you are a long term holder (as I am - average buy in $5.30) these dips are just great. So many commentators on this forum getting their knickers in a twist over some short term (and I mean 12 months - see the SP charts) weakness. Hold and add to your holding if you believe in this company and don't try to time your exit and re-entry points - you will inevitably be too late to jump back in when the better news comes out. If you like technical analysis wait for the shorter end trends to stabilise and begin to firm - that may yet be some time away. The bottom line is these lower SP levels are eventual buying opportunities. Where else in this market can you find relatively easy potential 30% upside in a blue chip company ? Greedy traders might look for those returns over a shorter time horizon, but how many are actually successful ? With a 187% return over 3 years at today's SP, I will biding my time until the signals look good, and will be topping up my holding. Nothing better than making the same money twice on the same price rise as previously, with a greater share holding. instead of agonising over what is now past history, start looking forward to the opportunities ahead, and recognise them when they present themselves....