ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Cyclical]

down 1.30 from the open ... savage. not surprising they did warn again things are highly uncertain

Currently down less than 5% from yesterday's close. Up a similar amount from the recent low only 2 weeks ago. In percentage terms, it'd be like OCA dropping 6c...big deal. Nothing to see here.

[Gregnz]

A2 is one of the few stocks I hold where the market reacts in very strange ways. I've read thru all the detail from today, all I can see is confirmation of guidance, a 24% increase in singles day 11/11 sales compared with last year, increased market share of liquid milk sales in Australia, and rapidly growing store presence in China and the USA, plus Canada coming onboard.
So yesterday the share price was worth $15.60ish, this morning was $16.29ish, and now its worth less than $15. Seems utterly ludicrous, although it is what it is. There hasn't been a single downgrade to date, merely guidance being delayed and coming in below market expectations some time back. The way the market has re-acted, anyone could be confused for thinking a downgrade actually happened today. What was the market predicting, a profit upgrade in the midst of Covid??

[dompf]

A2 is one of the few stocks I hold where the market reacts in very strange ways. I've read thru all the detail from today, all I can see is confirmation of guidance, a 24% increase in singles day 11/11 sales compared with last year, increased market share of liquid milk sales in Australia, and rapidly growing store presence in China and the USA, plus Canada coming onboard.
So yesterday the share price was worth $15.60ish, this morning was $16.29ish, and now its worth less than $15. Seems utterly ludicrous, although it is what it is. There hasn't been a single downgrade to date, merely guidance being delayed and coming in below market expectations some time back. The way the market has re-acted, anyone could be confused for thinking a downgrade actually happened today. What was the market predicting, a profit upgrade in the midst of Covid??

It’s heavily shorted on asx. Sentiment has downward on it. It’s still a rockstar but currently not on the stage.

[couta1]

A2 is one of the few stocks I hold where the market reacts in very strange ways. I've read thru all the detail from today, all I can see is confirmation of guidance, a 24% increase in singles day 11/11 sales compared with last year, increased market share of liquid milk sales in Australia, and rapidly growing store presence in China and the USA, plus Canada coming onboard.
So yesterday the share price was worth $15.60ish, this morning was $16.29ish, and now its worth less than $15. Seems utterly ludicrous, although it is what it is. There hasn't been a single downgrade to date, merely guidance being delayed and coming in below market expectations some time back. The way the market has re-acted, anyone could be confused for thinking a downgrade actually happened today. What was the market predicting, a profit upgrade in the midst of Covid??

Its all a game and we are but the pawns in it, all legal of course.

[Beagle]

The outlook statement was exactly what I expected. Reiterate the forecast but load up the statement with quite a few caveats and conditions and warnings its based on quite a range of various assumptions, (a very strong disclaimer of liability if the custard hits the fan). They have prepared the groundwork for a downgrade. I have read a lot of outlook statements in my life and very few are loaded with caveats, and thinly veiled warnings like that.

A good comparative example was the Turners outlook statement that simply had this simple statement • Targeting FY21 NPBT to be in the range of $28m to $31m. • This is conditional upon no further substantive lockdowns occurring before year end.

There is a stark difference between how ATM framed their outlook statement language and other companies. The Australians can obviously see it because unlike some Kiwi's with myopic vision they have both eyes wide open.

Smart directors who know there's a very real chance they will have to downgrade again, almost always get their excuses ready and lay the ground work early on.

[couta1]

The outlook statement was exactly what I expected. Reiterate the forecast but load up the statement with quite a few caveats and conditions and warnings its based on quite a range of various assumptions, (a very strong disclaimer of liability if the custard hits the fan). They have prepared the groundwork for a downgrade. I have read a lot of outlook statements in my life and very few are loaded with caveats, and thinly veiled warnings like that.

A good comparative example was the Turners outlook statement that simply had this simple statement • Targeting FY21 NPBT to be in the range of $28m to $31m. • This is conditional upon no further substantive lockdowns occurring before year end.

There is a stark difference between how ATM framed their outlook statement language and other companies. The Australians can obviously see it because unlike some Kiwi's with myopic vision they have both eyes wide open.

You had your afternoon nap and you come back talking the same ****. PS-You don't really understand this stock so be a good dog and head back over to the clothing dept. Lol

[RupertBear]

You had your afternoon nap and you come back talking the same ****. PS-You don't really understand this stock so be a good dog and head back over to the clothing dept. Lol

Classic!

[nztx]

It’s heavily shorted on asx. Sentiment has downward on it. It’s still a rockstar but currently not on the stage.

That's exactly it -- same as what happened this time last year as well

With a bit of luck & given enough rope our Aussie cousins might paint themselves into a position
where they lose the seat out of their grundies .. yet again ..

[Gregnz]

The outlook statement was exactly what I expected. Reiterate the forecast but load up the statement with quite a few caveats and conditions and warnings its based on quite a range of various assumptions, (a very strong disclaimer of liability if the custard hits the fan). They have prepared the groundwork for a downgrade. I have read a lot of outlook statements in my life and very few are loaded with caveats, and thinly veiled warnings like that.

A good comparative example was the Turners outlook statement that simply had this simple statement • Targeting FY21 NPBT to be in the range of $28m to $31m. • This is conditional upon no further substantive lockdowns occurring before year end.

There is a stark difference between how ATM framed their outlook statement language and other companies. The Australians can obviously see it because unlike some Kiwi's with myopic vision they have both eyes wide open.

Smart directors who know there's a very real chance they will have to downgrade again, almost always get their excuses ready and lay the ground work early on.

From my basic viewpoint, 24% growth in 11/11 sales compared with last year, expanding store network, growth in the USA and Australia fresh milk, it would certainly seem very odd for a downgrade to happen. If there was going to be one, today would have been the day. The main markets where A2 sell product, are now in recovery mode (AU, NZ , China), and as the company pointed out they are even seeing signs of recovery in the Daigou channel. What would it take to not meet the re-confirmed guidance, seeing as HY is only 3 months away?

[couta1]

Financial HY has just over 2 months left to run, anyone talking about a downgrade on here is simply clutching at straws and waffling, they have NO concrete basis to their claims whatsoever.