ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[alokdhir]

Its early in the day, thank goodness for spell checker lol. Chief investment officer at Kingfish, Sam Dickie has done okay in the last few years, outperformed the NZX50 by 4.3% per annum after expenses, (source yesterday's monthly KFL newsletter, NAV to NAV after fees over the last 3 years), which is no easy feat but its well behind his peers at BRM and MLN, probably in no small measure because of ATM's weak share price performance in recent years. I think he's barking up the wrong tree but I can't stop him doing that and KFL does plug a lot of gaps in my portfolio, even the odd one I don't want plugged

I still value his judgment a lot about NZ equites ...They had MPG in portfolio a while back ...maybe u wont be knowing as u r a recent fan of KFL ...I assume that ..so pardon me if I am wrong ...But they had the courage to exit it fully when they saw what they didn't like ....more recently they took small position in FBU and then again exited fully stating they can use that capital better .

Point I am trying to make here is that ATM is 13% of their all NZ equity portfolios which is a major position for any portfolio ...U dont take such big positions without having great conviction about the long term story of the stock , also they have shown before that they are ready to exit positions fully as soon as they start getting bad vibes ...like MPG and FBU etc

So I am more inclined to go with his conviction of long term story being intact in ATM as I respect his all judgments not the ones which are suiting at the moment .

VGL story they believe so much that they added to their position and still bullish about it !

[couta1]

My point exactly. This smacks of 'thought police'. Do we really need a self-appointed judge to examine every post, to tell us which passes the 'couta test' and which doesn't.

Example: I disagree with much of Beagle's last post above. It's painfully selective, ignoring the SP being in the $18 - $21.50 range for 5 months of the year to date. However I share his concerns about a possible slowdown. On balance, I think this correction from the $21 level is healthy but overdone, an opportunity to accumulate. All interesting to discuss though, and I respect his/her opinion.

I don't need Constable Couta to vet every post and tell me what is and isn't acceptable. Once maybe - you have a right to your opinion as well - but several times a day?

The Trolls and serial down rampers are constantly called out over at HC and rightly so, I gave up doing so and put the Top 6 offenders on ignore cause there are plenty of other LT holders doing the job, fortunately not many on this forum. PS-If I have time on my hands like I do currently I post a lot if need be and its not up to you to determine someone's posting frequentcy. PPS-On a slightly more humorous note, I didn't post for many months full stop and wasn't even going to return to the forum until Beagle and a few others talked me back here.

[Ggcc]

ive been very honest in my talk about the price going down since $20 and even backed it up with fundamentals.

You have and I agree you are no troll. You are just helping traders

[Beagle]

I still value his judgment a lot about NZ equites ...They had MPG in portfolio a while back ...maybe u wont be knowing as u r a recent fan of KFL ...I assume that ..so pardon me if I am wrong ...But they had the courage to exit it fully when they saw what they didn't like ....more recently they took small position in FBU and then again exited fully stating they can use that capital better .

Point I am trying to make here is that ATM is 13% of their all NZ equity portfolios which is a major position for any portfolio ...U dont take such big positions without having great conviction about the long term story of the stock , also they have shown before that they are ready to exit positions fully as soon as they start getting bad vibes ...like MPG and FBU etc

So I am more inclined to go with his conviction of long term story being intact in ATM as I respect his all judgments not the ones which are suiting at the moment .

VGL story they believe so much that they added to their position and still bullish about it !

Fair enough mate and as mentioned above I respect that he's done well to beat the NZX50 after their fees and expenses by 4.3% per annum over the last 3 years. They got out of ZEL too which has turned out to be a very wise decision. Buying up large in SUM recently also looks to have been an astute call.

[Beagle]

Fascinating reading this thread, surreal in places. Hard to believe that anyone in an investors forum would admit to having 90% of their portfolio invested in a single share – let alone be proud of it! It smacks of speculation (if not outright gambling) which makes emotionless, clear thinking on the subject almost impossible. Witness the bias here to only positive, bullish comments. No room for healthy, pro & con discussion, that would be dis-loyal!

We live in interesting times. Much of the investing world is in denial about the paradigm-busting economic & social effects of Covid, which is not surprising given the hot mess in the US. IMO, most markets are way overpriced, but out of challenge comes opportunity and some shares will benefit going forward. Many others will sink without trace. Difficult to say which, when risk abounds: a global plague, a madman in the White House, power-struggles in (and from) China. And who’s to say there’s not another black swan lurking?

Personally, I see ATM as one of the winners and shake my head at the NZX-ASX battle that’s going on, which can take the share price from +4% to -5% on the day of a relatively good Annual Report. However, the balance of risk is positive: down-side, perhaps $13-ish v’s upside, a return to the $20 range. China will decide, ultimately, not the shorters. In fact, I’m rather looking forward to the inevitable short squeeze. Hence accumulating at these levels...

Just my tuppence worth.

Post of the week !! Regarding your first paragraph, it is indeed totally surreal. It simply beggars belief ! Your first paragraph should give someone on here cause for reflection and thought.
Unfortunately some people are incorrigible and incapable of reform. I have bolded it up so maybe the chance is 1% more than zero ?

[alokdhir]

Fair enough mate and as mentioned above I respect that he's done well to beat the NZX50 after their fees and expenses by 4.3% per annum over the last 3 years. They got out of ZEL too which has turned out to be a very wise decision. Buying up large in SUM recently also looks to have been an astute call.

Please refresh my memory about when they had ZEL in portfolio ...maybe me getting old ...cant remember ...lol

Also sometimes they compare performance as total shareholder returns which is reflecting market SP of the fund rather then NAV return ..

At this moment due to retail rush for divvy payers its much over its intrinsic value of portfolio which as per me is around 1.76 ( including the 6 cents dilution happening soon ) compared to 1.92 as SP

From July onwards SP has outperformed Index ...not the intrinsic NAV similar stories with BRM and MLN . Though I agree that they doing well overall .Great buy and forget stories around NAV price not at these kind of premiums

So if u are a long term investor who doesn't bother playing the market then SP premium over NAV doesn't matter and should not be counted as extra returns ..IMHO

[macduffy]

Let's remember that this forum is Sharetrader and that trading includes holding short positions as well as long. I don't short - investing long is difficult enough for an old'un - but I respect the right of those that do to talk their book.

Disc: Holding small position in ATM - probably less than 2% of an overly diversified portfolio.

[Beagle]

Please refresh my memory about when they had ZEL in portfolio ...maybe me getting old ...cant remember ...lol

Also sometimes they compare performance as total shareholder returns which is reflecting market SP of the fund rather then NAV return ..

At this moment due to retail rush for divvy payers its much over its intrinsic value of portfolio which as per me is around 1.76 ( including the 6 cents dilution happening soon ) compared to 1.92 as SP

From July onwards SP has outperformed Index ...not the intrinsic NAV similar stories with BRM and MLN . Though I agree that they doing well overall .Great buy and forget stories around NAV price not at these kind of premiums

So if u are a long term investor who doesn't bother playing the market then SP premium over NAV doesn't matter and should not be counted as extra returns ..IMHO

It was a few years ago mate. Like me I don't think they were impressed with Mike Bennett's "leadership" Yeah some of the premiums to NTA with the group at present have me scratching my head. I have never seen anything like them before but then again their funds have been consistently outperforming the index in recent years so maybe people are prepared to pay for that now especially in light of the 8% tax free yield ? Elderly investors desperate for reliable high tax free yield ? Yes NAV to NAV after expenses is how I look at their performance and its been good !

Suppose we better get back to discussing ATM before the thought police get upset.

[Waltzing]

14 - 60 , might as well say its a 6 times price test. support extends here. short term long term... its has little meaning as you can be both over portfolios and therefore only tax determines trading from investing. It simply means how much back office automation you own.

[alokdhir]

It was a few years ago mate. Like me I don't think they were impressed with Mike Bennett's "leadership"

Thanks buddy !!