ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Biscuit]

....But divide your investments among many places,
for you do not know what risks might lie ahead....

Which is wise advice. Funny to think that thousands of years ago, people in an ancient society were losing sleep over just the same problems that exercise our minds.

[alokdhir]

Has it really worked that well mate ? As I have said many times to you before I often think you and your family would be better off with a very sizeable part of your money split evenly between Kingfish, Barramundi and Marlin. Please spend some time reflecting upon what the Bible says about diversification https://www.randelltiongson.com/dive...and-the-bible/

“But divide your investments among many places,
for you do not know what risks might lie ahead.”

— Ecclesiastes 11:2. New Living Translation.

I have advised myself and others same stuff ...full diversification ...so I hold NZG as my main investment ...nothing can be more diversified then that . U can top that up with going over weight on some flavours of the season . ATM + FPH + NZG in right proportions can make a potent NZ portfolio .

BRM / MLN / KFL have suddenly become very popular with retail investors because of their 2% quarterly divvy policy ...not exactly for anything else maybe ...otherwise who will be paying 15% premium to real NAV for 3.5 % outperformance to index available at NAV in open quantities ...to me this seems job of uninformed and new rookie investors .

I will rather promote more fairer options possible at the moment then KFL types . IMHO

[alokdhir]

For Barrs brief update

Baby Steps Forward


OUTPERFORM
The a2 Milk Company's (ATM) Annual Meeting provided little in the way of new information, reiterating its FY21 guidance. A
positive takeaway was indications of "early green shoots" in the under-pressure daigou channel. ATM's channel mix is shifting
rapidly, with strong performance in direct channels being overshadowed by daigou pressure. We view this as temporary and
expect a return to growth from 2H21. Current investor focus appears firmly centered on FY21 earnings downgrade risk,
which is unlikely to be resolved until the timeline of daigou re-ordering and realignment of channels is clearer. Looking
through short-term earnings volatility, we see an attractive medium-term growth runway, with our confidence boosted by
recent proprietary channel checks in the key offline market. Valuation metrics remain attractive (PE of ~25x, or ~21x adjusted
for cash and US losses), particularly given ATM's strong free cashflow generation and high returns. OUTPERFORM.
What's changed?
What did we learn from the Annual Meeting?
Key issue creating debate — when will growth return and is there a downgrade still to come?
Market attention appears centered on one over-arching question — will ATM downgrade its FY21 (particularly 2H21) guidance?
Despite the reiteration of guidance and channel commentary, which if anything was incrementally more positive than the last update,
this question will likely remain an overhang until the 2H21 outlook is clearer. ATM is going through a dramatic, rapid shift in channel
mix which makes forecasting more challenging than usual. The issues are well known, however, the timeline (particularly of daigou reordering) is less clear. Our analysis suggests the share price is already factoring in some of the risk (c. 70%). Even under
our downgrade scenario we see attractive value (valuation multiples lift by c. 2x).

Makes perfect sense . After 2 years of underperformance ...now the time is ripe for it to be outperformer for next 2 years to do a catch up . Thats how most good companies SP work IMHO

Fisher Funds have also increased its weightage to 14% from 13 % as per their latest data . They sure can sense ATM good times ahead

[Beagle]

Which is wise advice. Funny to think that thousands of years ago, people in an ancient society were losing sleep over just the same problems that exercise our minds.

Yeah, ironic isn't it !

I have advised myself and others same stuff ...full diversification ...so I hold NZG as my main investment ...nothing can be more diversified then that . U can top that up with going over weight on some flavours of the season . ATM + FPH + NZG in right proportions can make a potent NZ portfolio .

BRM / MLN / KFL have suddenly become very popular with retail investors because of their 2% quarterly divvy policy ...not exactly for anything else maybe ...otherwise who will be paying 15% premium to real NAV for 3.5 % outperformance to index available at NAV in open quantities ...to me this seems job of uninformed and new rookie investors .

I will rather promote more fairer options possible at the moment then KFL types . IMHO

Yeah I think we've talked that through already but for the record I have been giving Couta1 this advice in person and on the phone for years and KFL, BRM and MLN have been outperforming their relevant indices for years. Average market outperformance adjusted NAV to adjusted NAV, after fees, (percent per annum) for the last 3 years KFL 4.3%, BRM 8.7% and MLN 9.7%, source (most recent monthly newsletters for each fund just released)
The only way into these funds, (which are well and truly outperforming their relevant indices after fees) at present without paying a premium to NTA is through the warrants. It won't surprise anyone then, that I have a lot of Kingfish KFLWF and Barramundi BRMWF warrants.

[Bjauck]

Has it really worked that well mate ? As I have said many times to you before I often think you and your family would be better off with a very sizeable part of your money split evenly between Kingfish, Barramundi and Marlin. Please spend some time reflecting upon what the Bible says about diversification https://www.randelltiongson.com/dive...and-the-bible/

“But divide your investments among many places,
for you do not know what risks might lie ahead.”


— Ecclesiastes 11:2. New Living Translation.

The King James Bible is more specific:
Give a portion to seven, and also to eight; for thou knowest not what evil shall be upon the earth

However...
And again I say unto you, It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.
Matthew 19:24

All the best to couta. He was a poster who was unafraid to offer his opinions and share his experiences.

[Biscuit]

I have advised myself and others same stuff ...full diversification ...

Diversification makes it harder to lose money but also harder to make money. Just depends where you are at. Neither strategy is intrinsically better than the other.

[Beagle]

Diversification makes it harder to lose money but also harder to make money. Just depends where you are at. Neither strategy is intrinsically better than the other.

I couldn't disagree more.

[RupertBear]

Decided I'm going to take an extended break from the forum, my wife won't let me have the changed password for 6 months to start, after that I doubt I'll be back. I'm a go big or go home kinda person and have excelled in quite a few areas of life because of that and I'm not about to change a formula that has worked well for me through the years. Some no doubt will be happy to see me go, thats their prerogative, it is what it is. Adios Couta.

Aww no that sucks! I will miss your go big or go home attitude. And whose going to keep that Beagle in check he will probably go feral with you gone!

Anyway enjoy your break and I hope you do come back. All the Very best

[Beagle]

LOL - When one holds 90% of one's investments in one share, all hope of calm rational debate is gone. Nobody on earth can hold that level of investment in one share and think objectively.

One of Couta's favorite little sayings is "two men look out through the prison bars, one sees mud and the other sees stars" The question is not which are you. The real question is why some people keep putting themselves in prison over and over and over again in the first place !

[macduffy]

How about we leave Couta in peace and take this thread back to A2 Corporation?