ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Motley Crew]

"3. I have tried talking to Couta1 many, many, many times over many, many years about the risks of having most of your eggs in one basket. I recently gave up because he doesn't listen.
4. Nobody knows the future with absolute crystal clear certainty and I believe having 90% in one share is an exceptionally risky approach. Its something worse than gross recklessness in my opinion.
5. I have learned in my professional career and in more than a decade and 17,000 posts on here that some people can't be helped and it is better to move on and try and help others who can learn and that was the spirit in which my comments were made.
6. Coutts has my phone number, I'm sure he'll ring me when he's ready. Probably a bit annoyed with me but a real friend calls it how they really see it."



I have stayed away from making the type of comment I am about to make, but it now really has to be said -
Beagle - Your comments clearly show you for what you are - an arrogant s.o.b. Couta has his way of investing and I make no comment on that. Each to their own. I have found some of Couta's comments to be quite well presented and useful, like many other contributor's comments. Your's I have a problem with - It is not for others on this forum to comment on others personal investing strategies by claiming that their way is best. It is even more arrogant of you to expect Couta to call you - Why would he ? I don't think you are the LGA that you clearly think you are, and who we should all turn to for advice to learn from, regardless of how many posts on this forum makes you think you are the Expert.

[alokdhir]

Probably should clarify a few things.
1. $10 is one possible outcome I am modelling, its not a 40% drop from here, its about 30%. Its just one of several future possibilities I am modelling.
2. I can't control or influence what Kingfish are doing or buying other than talk to the investment manager at the annual meeting or ring them if I am deeply concerned. Neither is likely to have any impact on what they are doing.

Fair enough that one of your models is showing that worst case outcome to be $ 10 ....I can live with that .ie $ 4 down from here ...makes my risk of investing or holding as further $ 4 erosion ...on best case outcome its SP reaching $ 23 in 9 months ...ie $ 9 upside ...so clearly risk/ reward favours holding or investing more

Secondly I had highlighted before too why I will be giving more weightage to the judgment of Fisher funds managers about ATM then your expert opinion here ( though I agree that u also have great market wisdom ) ...Fisher funds as a whole has about $ 1 billion invested in ATM in various funds of their ...so they get special access to management and their presentations etc ( not talking about insider info here but about better access to knowledge about what they doing and why ) and they do their own deep research in the field too as its their job not hobby

Fisher funds have superb past track record and they chose ATM to be their main investment after it passes many investment criteria STEEP ...

Thirdly in this frothy market where retail investors are setting new records of over paying ...eg buying BRM at 20% premium to NAV ..etc etc ...I see ATM offering good value as an high quality stock not at lofty levels .

We all know the reasons why its $ 14.50 and not $ 25 at present ...like FPH posted best results ever and still stock ended down as all already knew and asking what ahead after vaccine works ? Whats ahead of ATM will start getting attention soon and then no one is going to wait for it to show actual results or upgrade to us before it reaches $ 18 in a hurry

[Balance]

I have stayed away from making the type of comment I am about to make, but it now really has to be said -
Beagle - Your comments clearly show you for what you are - an arrogant s.o.b. Couta has his way of investing and I make no comment on that. Each to their own. I have found some of Couta's comments to be quite well presented and useful, like many other contributor's comments. Your's I have a problem with - It is not for others on this forum to comment on others personal investing strategies by claiming that their way is best. It is even more arrogant of you to expect Couta to call you - Why would he ? I don't think you are the LGA that you clearly think you are, and who we should all turn to for advice to learn from, regardless of how many posts on this forum makes you think you are the Expert.

Let's all take a chill pill and recognize that Beagle and Couta1 are actually good friends and have been ribbing each other for quite a while.

Beagle has been receiving a bit of stick for his comments here but unlike some other posters, he does it in the spirit of articulating his views rather than admonishing Couta1.

I am sure Couta1 does not need anyone to stand up for him being the single minded and focused individual he obviously is.

Have a lovey day, everyone.

[xp04]

"3. I have tried talking to Couta1 many, many, many times over many, many years about the risks of having most of your eggs in one basket. I recently gave up because he doesn't listen.
4. Nobody knows the future with absolute crystal clear certainty and I believe having 90% in one share is an exceptionally risky approach. Its something worse than gross recklessness in my opinion.
5. I have learned in my professional career and in more than a decade and 17,000 posts on here that some people can't be helped and it is better to move on and try and help others who can learn and that was the spirit in which my comments were made.
6. Coutts has my phone number, I'm sure he'll ring me when he's ready. Probably a bit annoyed with me but a real friend calls it how they really see it."



I have stayed away from making the type of comment I am about to make, but it now really has to be said -
Beagle - Your comments clearly show you for what you are - an arrogant s.o.b. Couta has his way of investing and I make no comment on that. Each to their own. I have found some of Couta's comments to be quite well presented and useful, like many other contributor's comments. Your's I have a problem with - It is not for others on this forum to comment on others personal investing strategies by claiming that their way is best. It is even more arrogant of you to expect Couta to call you - Why would he ? I don't think you are the LGA that you clearly think you are, and who we should all turn to for advice to learn from, regardless of how many posts on this forum makes you think you are the Expert.

Someone had to say it. Well done

[Beagle]

Jeez, looks like the ATM "Hope and Prayer" group are missing their demigod Couta already. Never mind that he absolutely trashed anyone with an opposite opinion and slagged them off, adding screeds of useless pages on the thread, you get dragged through the coals for replying ONCE, nicely, succinctly and truthfully, to previous posts and explaining your position. What an absolute load of horses*** from those users and hypocritical as hell.

This is exactly why I quit ST, FP and HC over the years - people that only want to listen to the echo chamber answers always flood the thread and drown out reasoned discussion and facts. The internet really can be a cesspool at times - I find myself withdrawing from it and only allowing it to be a one-way street (ie. me taking in information, not adding anything).

Keep up the good work mate, there are people listening, but if you do give up one day, trust me, no one would blame you...

Copy of email received from former poster Moosie yesterday. Those who have only been here for 5 seconds should focus on making a series of really meaningful contributions before having the audacity to sit in moral judgment on those who have made thousands over the last decade.

To me this thread is ostensibly New Zealand's version of the Tesla Cult. There is no room for objective debate. All people want to hear is positivity and therefore there is no point in me posting any further on this thread. I'm perfectly entitled to post negative rep for judgmental posts so nobody should be surprised that I have. Over and out from ATM.

[Dotbond]

Beagle: Lots of readers , especially myself, in this thread and the OCA thread, appreciate your comments and wisdom and insight of companies and the sharemarket. Dont stop because a couple of people say you should stop.

Cheers Trev

[ba9]

A lot of us would agree, the whole situation has just blown out of proportion. Sending private emails and criticizing someone is just shameful.

Beagle. Please do not stop posting on this thread. Your insights, research and experience are extremely valuable to lots of readers

[Sideshow Bob]

I thought sharing alternate points of view, methodology and information was the reason for the forum? Not just looking for affirming ones opinion and having a whole lot of group think and reef fish.

Play the ball, not the man.

[sb9]

Probably should clarify a few things.
1. $10 is one possible outcome I am modelling, its not a 40% drop from here, its about 30%. Its just one of several future possibilities I am modelling.
2. I can't control or influence what Kingfish are doing or buying other than talk to the investment manager at the annual meeting or ring them if I am deeply concerned. Neither is likely to have any impact on what they are doing.

Fair enough that one of your models is showing that worst case outcome to be $ 10 ....I can live with that .ie $ 4 down from here ...makes my risk of investing or holding as further $ 4 erosion ...on best case outcome its SP reaching $ 23 in 9 months ...ie $ 9 upside ...so clearly risk/ reward favours holding or investing more

Secondly I had highlighted before too why I will be giving more weightage to the judgment of Fisher funds managers about ATM then your expert opinion here ( though I agree that u also have great market wisdom ) ...Fisher funds as a whole has about $ 1 billion invested in ATM in various funds of their ...so they get special access to management and their presentations etc ( not talking about insider info here but about better access to knowledge about what they doing and why ) and they do their own deep research in the field too as its their job not hobby

Fisher funds have superb past track record and they chose ATM to be their main investment after it passes many investment criteria STEEP ...

Thirdly in this frothy market where retail investors are setting new records of over paying ...eg buying BRM at 20% premium to NAV ..etc etc ...I see ATM offering good value as an high quality stock not at lofty levels .

We all know the reasons why its $ 14.50 and not $ 25 at present ...like FPH posted best results ever and still stock ended down as all already knew and asking what ahead after vaccine works ? Whats ahead of ATM will start getting attention soon and then no one is going to wait for it to show actual results or upgrade to us before it reaches $ 18 in a hurry

$10-$12 range is definitely takeover territory for this gem.

[BlackPeter]

A lot of us would agree, the whole situation has just blown out of proportion. Sending private emails and criticizing someone is just shameful.

Beagle. Please do not stop posting on this thread. Your insights, research and experience are extremely valuable to lots of readers

I second that. I am sure that beagle and couta are quite capable to sorting out their different views without the input of self appointed moral apostles ... and I enjoy and appreciate the contributions of both posters. Nothing I have seen here from any of them looked to me written in bad faith or malicious in any way.

People being humans tend to be subject to a number of biases .... and I think we all can learn a lot from (not just this) this thread how owning something changes the mind of the owner towards focusing more on the potential benefits of the object (or subject ) than on the risks. Good on couta on demonstrating this effect for everybody to learn and good on beagle to point out the risks of the all eggs into one basket strategy.

We need both of your inputs ... and I would like to see both of you coming back.