ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Leftfield]

Perfect example is Bulls message today is he right or is he wrong? Can we have a discussion about why he may be or why he may not be correct that the stock is about to be shorted again.

Hi Lemon, yes nice to be moving on.... and in that context, here are my thoughts on recent shorting of ATM.

1.) Below chart shows Shorts aren't increasing as Bull say's, but have seemingly levelled off just below 8%... but for how long who knows. See point 2 below also.
ATM shorts at end Nov 20.jpg
2.) As ATM is now increasingly held by institutions (est around 87%) we need to appreciate that a large part of the shorting may well be the same institutions 'hedging' their holdings to offset perceived risks such as the Geopolitical risk between China and Aus/NZ. This is quite different from speculators 'shorting.'
3.) I believe the key risks facing ATM at the moment are not the changing diagou channels, but are a reflection of the China/Aus tensions (and yes I appreciate ATM's A2 IF comes from NZ.), plus the unknown of a new CEO taking over (which may also be a risky time.)
4.) So of course there are risks with ATM as there are with any shares. What tomorrows SP may be is anyone's guess, but I'm more inclined to Snow Leopard's thinking as per post #18259 and my off stated belief that ATM will return to outperforming the NZX50 index in 2021. However my risk profile is much different from a new ATM investor, so as always DYOR.

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...?ocid=msedgdhp

This looks extremely ugly with the potential to have even more serious trade implications going forward.

[Mr Slothbear]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...?ocid=msedgdhp

This looks extremely ugly with the potential to have even more serious trade implications going forward.

Article not applicable to A2 but if the downramp helps the shareprice get down to my buy levels I’m happy

in fact worsening trade between aus and china will remove quite a few potential competitors such as bubs and bal so could help A2 quite a lot.

[Biscuit]

Hi Lemon, yes nice to be moving on.... and in that context, here are my thoughts on recent shorting of ATM.

1.) Below chart shows Shorts aren't increasing as Bull say's, but have seemingly levelled off just below 8%... but for how long who knows. See point 2 below also.
ATM shorts at end Nov 20.jpg
2.) As ATM is now increasingly held by institutions (est around 87%) we need to appreciate that a large part of the shorting may well be the same institutions 'hedging' their holdings to offset perceived risks such as the Geopolitical risk between China and Aus/NZ. This is quite different from speculators 'shorting.'
3.) I believe the key risks facing ATM at the moment are not the changing diagou channels, but are a reflection of the China/Aus tensions (and yes I appreciate ATM's A2 IF comes from NZ.), plus the unknown of a new CEO taking over (which may also be a risky time.)
4.) So of course there are risks with ATM as there are with any shares. What tomorrows SP may be is anyone's guess, but I'm more inclined to Snow Leopard's thinking as per post #18259 and my off stated belief that ATM will return to outperforming the NZX50 index in 2021. However my risk profile is much different from a new ATM investor, so as always DYOR.

Shorting seems very cyclical, peaking December/January every year. I agree we don't need to read too much into it. Your risk is the same as every other holder though.

[Biscuit]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...?ocid=msedgdhp

This looks extremely ugly with the potential to have even more serious trade implications going forward.

Problem for NZ is we don't want to offend China but we need to support our allies, especially when they are in the right.

[Waltzing]

New documents of virus numbers in china early stage looks like it may give some push back to help the aussi position..

ATM chart looks very nice here. If support fails here it all the way back to under 12 im afraid.

[Cyclical]

.... and in that context, here are my thoughts on recent shorting of ATM.

2.) As ATM is now increasingly held by institutions (est around 87%) we need to appreciate that a large part of the shorting may well be the same institutions 'hedging' their holdings to offset perceived risks such as the Geopolitical risk between China and Aus/NZ. This is quite different from speculators 'shorting.'

...in fact worsening trade between aus and china will remove quite a few potential competitors such as bubs and bal so could help A2 quite a lot.

A couple of good points right there.

Meanwhile, she's under a bit of pressure today and wondering if we will see a retest of recent lows.

[LEMON]

With so much positive impact on Dairy products from NZ and even a 2% rise in demand for dairy products from China, some reports reckon if all exports take a hit from this trade war here in NZ, then NZ dairy will be the last to feel the burn. So is it just the impact of Australia's trade war and the ripple over the ASX causing A2 to fall?
It's always a positive impact on the NZX in the morning but the moment the ASX opens it's pinned down again.

Then the signing of the ASEAN trade agreement from China on the 5th of nov? you would think that would help with the situation instead Australia and China are still at each other.
How much longer can they keep it up and will either one feel the burn more than others.
Some reckon Australia will prevail others think China doesn't need us.

There is also the point of A2s strong links with China's dairy industries you would think that would help A2 to position itself over the next few months to outperform other dairy products from say Australia's dairy industries who are taking a hard hit? As MR slothbear points out earlier

[Waltzing]

collateral damage...fund manager wont pick through the orchard...

[Biscuit]

Blindly following the Fornicator Trump = right?

I beg to differ.

Well, actually, in imposing trade tariffs and resorting to fake news, it is China that is following Trump.