ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Balance]

This chart from a FY20 results presentation may give some answer for you.

Attachment 12133

If you look at the RH chart, I take it that the blue panels represent ANZ sourced IF via Daigou channels. As you can see this channel was declining from FY16, while other distribution channels were increasing.

Thanks, LF.

I get the picture now - those are huge numbers of IF resales through Australia via the daigou channel for ATM.

No wonder the market is so concerned about any sort of ban or trade sanctions against Australian dairy exports.

[Gerald]

a2m.jpg

Been getting into this TA business of drawing lines everywhere.

Looks like an interesting area of support.

[Balance]

However, I still don't get it how China's ban on AU dairy will affect any of this?

Here’s the rub I suspect :

Any ban will mean no export of A2 IF or milk powder via Australia.

Hope ATM has a contingency plan in place to export from NZ to the Australian based Daigou players (they are obviously big players) in such an event.

[LEMON]

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/12/9/australia-2

Things are only getting hotter

[HKG2301]

Regardless of the underlying reasons, fear has a grip on the share price well and truly. I'm not suggesting long holds get out now, that would be silly, the future is bright while the short/recent term has been ugly.
The chart says ATM has basically averaged sideways since 2018 which is a pain because it lends itself to momentum trading rather than a solid continuous fundamental growth story. It seems ATM is not immune to shocks and has its fair share of them for the past few years.
Its SP is currently having a good look at the multiple lows providing support over a longish term, with potential, if it doesn't bounce like right now, to test the gap to $13. Troubling times, where everyone needs to reflect on their own investing/trading strategies and try to make the best of it.
Pretty much as soon as Covid was a big deal I sold ATM for about 60% gain on fears of suppliers to China, and then watched in disbelief as it proceeded to double bag! But now it's back well under my exit and am very interested to pick a new entry. Albeit on a momentum basis, when momentum changes to the upside.

This kinda sums up the situation for me. Competing influences of...

* Product factors, is A2 milk really a 'thing' (and are the various markets prepared to pay a premium for it)
* Covid-factors, such as daigou 'choking' (never a huge, or reliable channel in its own right anyway)
* Geo-political factors, ie China really is taking Oz to task here to prove a point (will this come to affect ATM?)
* Economic factors (will ATM be able to continue as a premium 'growth' story as it expands in various markets, not just China)
* Investment factors, ie institutional v's retail investment (RobinHooders / Sharesies investors driving much of the present bull market)
* ASX shorting factors, which have been a huge influence to date, but historically/inevitably end in a momentous short squeeze (eg TSLA)
* Market factors, as Baa_Baa refers to above, including TA support levels (if you're into that kind of thing)
* Personal factors, such as balanced exposure, risk appetite, buy-and-hold v's ?, etc. You know, the usual stuff

Which is a heap to consider, but balances out for every individual: if/when to buy in, and at what price?

Personally, I'm in, and adding every time the sp drops below $14-ish, but this is a small part of my portfolio and balanced by other non-dairy, non-NZ, non-China, non-equity, non-whatever.

It's a risk/reward deal, like any other investment decision you make. ie you balance your risk v's the possible rewards.

Don't mean to sound preachy, but that's about it, as far as I can tell...

[HKG2301]

Which - obviously - invites comment on other factors I've missed..

[HKG2301]

I'll start, as I've just realised I missed...

* The China domestic market factor, where they REALLY ARE sold on premium imported infant formula v's domestic, after the 2008 melamine scandal.

[Panda-NZ-]

I'll start, as I've just realised I missed...

* The China domestic market factor, where they REALLY ARE sold on premium imported infant formula v's domestic, after the 2008 melamine scandal.

If there's one thing they won't substitute in this new nationalism drive, it's milk formula.

This has recently proven to be a good counter-cyclical stock if the trade issues on "australia" turn out to not affect atm.

[allfromacell]

I imagine if China does target dairy which I highly doubt they will they'll be selective and won't target companies with Chinese connections such as A2. It could actually be a positive for A2 but the market obviously doesn't agree.

[Balance]

https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/ag...34d6dd6775443c

China not increasing tariff on Australian dairy despite having the right to double rates to 10%.