ATM - A2 Milk Corporation Limited

[Balance]

No doubt about it, but how does that alter what I said?

Means that whatever happens in the NZX is irrelevant until the ASX opens on ATM.

Sad but true.

[Gregnz]

I’d say if the plan was to re-open trading today then we would have already had the release. Monday morning now seems more likely.

[whatsup]

Once ATM's numbers are known to them there is no reason to continue the T H get the pain over and done with for heavens sake, we all are big boys and girls.

[alokdhir]

Today is index rebalancing day too where ATM weightage in NZX Portfolio Index tracked by FNZ is going up by 1.59 % ....

Was so looking forward to that ...lol

[Lion_graf]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...OYCPW7EHNQSLY/

Synlait saying they will reassess the impact. The word impact doesn't sound positive in my view..

The quotes in that article all talk about revised earnings guidance.. but maybe they can't say anything about contracts, acquisitions and takeovers until anything is released by a2 and we out of the halt. I guess we just have to wait and see..

[whatsup]

I wonder what % of ATM's product is bought by the diagou ( whatever ) industry as opposed by regular shipping ( air and sea freight ) ?

[alokdhir]

All ATM big inclusions ETF and Funds taking a hit today expecting a big downgrade in SP ...like TNZ , NZG but KFL which has 11.4 % ATM is still going up .

It reveals what kind of investors flock to KFL even at 20 cents over NAV !!

[tomm]

I don't think it is a big deal. Trading as usual.

[Beagle]

Not that beagle needs defending, but I will say this ; his words of caution definitely resonated with me at a timely juncture in the SP slide, so much so that I decided to walk away with a 6 figure loss on A2. That was a bitter pill to swallow. I put those released funds into a couple of shares he was championing at that same time and i have turned that 6 figure loss into a 6 figure profit.

I’m not posting that to gloat, and I get that shares go up and shares go down, but Beagle shares his ideas in a logical and reasoned way, and I for one am extremly grateful he takes the time to do so, as ST would hold a lot less value for forum posters/watchers without his input.

He that has ears listen.....

Thank Beagle.

Thanks mate. You've made my day knowing I've made a big difference for you.

[Beagle]

If we were to set aside for a bit any notion that those at the top are pretty good at engineering things to avoid scrutiny regarding insider trading (eg cashing up at ~21 bucks with impeccable timing), and that this information bringing about the halt has genuinely only recently come to light (ie it wasn't apparent at AGM time), then the one thing in the public domain that has really amped up since that AGM would have to be the CN AU trade war.

Now if the Chinese were suddenly whacking big tariffs on dairy, then I imagine that would be in the public domain as soon as ATM knew about it, if not before. Likewise with C19 infected batches, or shipments being blockaded because they've come from AU (we'd have heard about it already). The Daigou channel is buggered, but we already knew that...perhaps it's got worse, but that shouldn't be a surprise to the board. Maybe logistics are in a bad state and they are having trouble getting the product to the market, again this is something that surely hasn't just become apparent since the AGM. Regarding competition, well that's nothing new.

So what really is the big deal, some new hindrance we've not yet heard of, or is it just a culmination of all of the above and simply the number 2 downgrade in the standard Balance trifecta? If the latter, why such a long halt though?

I don't know, but given the length of the halt and the fact none of the above is really news, I tend to think that it may be a new challenge we've not seen to date.

Very good post, well said. I suspect we may see 4 downgrades this year, this the second one shortly, another in late February with the half year result and a final one in May 2021 or early June as the scale of the problem becomes abundantly clear.

I will wait for this to be properly de-risked and a clear bottom to be firmly established and will have another look at the fundamentals when there's a clear break above the 100 day moving average, whenever that might be but I doubt its anytime soon.